油脂日报：供给压力不同，油脂走势分化

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2405合约8328元/吨，环比上涨112元，涨幅1.36%；昨日收盘豆油2405合约7832元/吨，环比上涨42元，涨幅0.54%；昨日收盘菜油2405合约8087元/吨，环比下跌9元，跌幅0.11%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480元/吨，环比上涨120元，涨幅1.44%，现货基差P05+152，环比上涨8元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8020元/吨，环比上涨40元/吨，涨幅0.50%，现货基差Y05+188，环比下跌2元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8210元/吨，环比下跌10元，跌幅0.12%，现货基差OI05+123，环比下跌1元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：由于进口大豆到港减少，3月份国内油厂开机率降低，周均压榨量在160万吨左右，3月份国内主要油厂大豆累计压榨量650万吨，同比基本持平。4月份进口大豆到港将增多，有利于油厂开机回升，预计4月份国内油厂大豆压榨量约750万吨，过去三年均值710万吨。阿根廷豆油（5月船期）C&F价格952美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调5美元/吨；阿根廷豆油（7月船期）C&F价格951美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调3美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（5月船期）C&F价格1090美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；进口菜油（7月船期）C&F价格1110元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 昨日三大油脂价格走势分化，国内棕榈油受国际油价上涨和马棕出口影响而强势反弹，豆油和菜油受供应宽松影响弱势震荡。棕榈油方面，由于有来自产地端的利多，棕榈油下方空间不大，而且2023下半年厄尔尼诺现象是否会导致棕榈油5-6月开始减产尚不明确，加上近期原油强势也给了油脂一定支撑，预计棕榈油高位震荡运行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨