节后表现淡如水，春风能否吹又生

2024年03月04日 节后表现淡如水，春风能否吹又生 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 2024年2月行情回顾：PX呈现跌后震荡反弹行情，主因是成本支撑和装置检修。上半月美元指数走强且原油产量回升，油价下挫导致对PX支撑不足；下半月受春节假期期间油市偏强运行提振，PX成本端支撑提升。PTA保持区间运行，节前下游备货带来一定刺激，同时春节期间外盘原油走高，成本方面带来支撑。由于PTA在春节期间库存积累，市场反馈大量货源在港口集中，PTA行情在月底再度下跌。乙二醇迎来了近些年第一个不累库的春节，港口库存与春节前持平。但节后却是另一番光景，乙二醇装置开工提升带动供应增量上升，乙二醇期货价格高开后震荡回落。 相关报告 20240205《春节热烈备货，节后需求释放存疑》20240220《市场对节后需求恢复情况保持中性观点》20240220《不累库的春节，但相对平静的需求》20240226《成本定价是主逻辑，聚酯产销放量略显遥远》20240226《需求低迷下，装置消息的影响更甚》 后市展望：PX方面，预计将跟随原油区间运行，价格区间为8400-8800元/吨。调油逻辑运行已进入第三年，边际效应逐年递减，亚美出口已经处于市场持续的预期之中，而且当下美国汽油库存也处于相对高位水平。不过3月关注的重点仍是调油需求，若不考虑海外装置因调油导致意外降负荷，3月PTA装置检修和新产能投放均在，具体执行力度有待观察，PX供应宽松的局面将在4月好转。PTA方面，预计将震荡偏弱，价格区间为5700-6000元/吨。成本方面带来的利好有限，装置检修与新产能投放同在，需关注执行情况。下游纺织市场需求好转，带动加弹和织造开机率回暖，预计需求释放，但目前仍处于忍受需求前移造成的产销压力放大的阶段。总体来看，3月份PTA库存累积幅度相对较小。MEG方面，预计将偏弱整理，价格区间为4400-4700元/吨。近期乙二醇价格受装置检修增加、地缘冲突以及天气因素影响维持高位震荡运行。但随着价格上扬，部分装置检修计划推迟或取消，乙二醇供应端减量空间较小，且沙特等海外装置也已确定重启计划，进口开始回升。春节虽未累库，但节后需求恢复缓慢，新订单未有批量下达，港口库存有所增加。下游需求未能在节后迎来一波释放，则库存难题将在3月逐渐压制走势。 风险提示：需求表现不及预期，调油需求再度抢跑 目录 （一）行情回顾：成本定价是主逻辑，供应格局偏宽松.................................................................................................... 5（二）国内装置保持高位运行，月内变动较少.................................................................................................................... 6（三）俄罗斯石脑油出口码头遭遇袭击，调油预期保持平静............................................................................................ 7 二、PTA........................................................................................................................................................................... 9 （一）行情回顾：成本支撑犹存，需求恢复远矣................................................................................................................ 9（二）加工费处于区间上沿，开工保持稳定...................................................................................................................... 10（三）春节累库至近五年绝对高位，环比增加17.39%..................................................................................................... 12 三、MEG....................................................................................................................................................................... 13 （一）行情回顾：月初回调后保持高位震荡...................................................................................................................... 13（二）各路线开工均显著提升，仅煤制利润继续好转...................................................................................................... 14（三）春节未有累库，节后受需求拖累稍有增加.............................................................................................................. 15 四、聚酯......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 （一）行情回顾：长丝产品价格涨幅最高，短暂的备货带来提振.................................................................................. 16（二）季节性检修时段，节后恢复速度缓慢...................................................................................................................... 17（三）库存问题又成“老大难” .............................................................................................................................................. 19 （一）斋月订单带动外贸向好，但内销表现低于预期...................................................................................................... 21（二）美国消费开始降温，2023年12月自中国进口稍有回升....................................................................................... 23 六、后市展望及主要结论............................................................................................................................................... 24 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································5图4：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································5图5：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································6图6：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）·····················································································································································6图8：PX加工费（美元/吨）··················································································································································6图9：PXN价差走势（美元/吨）································································································································