聚烯烃周报：库存去化偏慢，聚烯烃涨跌互现

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议暂观望。春节假期归来，聚烯烃盘面回落后震荡上行，现货价格涨跌互现。聚烯烃检修装置重启，开工率上行，供应端压力提升。上游石化库存大幅累库，下游以消化节前库存为主，节后库存去化速率偏慢。下游开工率底部回升，但终端工厂尚未全面复工，市场交投仍偏弱，LLDPE下游地膜订单旺季即将来临，需求有提升预期。LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。预计聚烯烃维持震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存95.5万吨，较节前累库38万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差-100，PP华东基差-90。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际油价偏弱震荡走势，成本端支撑尚可。油制PE与PDH制PP生产利润盈亏平衡附近，油制PP生产利润维持亏损。PE开工率89.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率87.9%（+2.5%），节后开工负荷提升，PP生产利润修复，供应端压力提升。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工率35%（+15%），包装膜开工率45%（+13%）；PP下游塑编开工率35%（+11%），BOPP开工率41%（-5%），注塑开工率36%（+10%）。聚烯烃下游开工假期过后触底反弹，需求缓慢恢复，LLDPE下游地膜订单旺季即将来临，需求有提升预期。 ■策略 建议暂观望。 ■风险 原油价格大涨，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........