乌克兰战争的消耗、僵局和未来

Gustav GresselJanuary 2024 SUMMARY Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war of attrition  which on current projections Russiais set to win. Ukraine can only achieve its war aims if it moves to a war of manoeuvre; without this, itcannot regain its lost territory. Western supplies and efforts at defence-industrial consolidation are failing to provideUkraine with the replacement armaments it needs to survive the war of attrition, let alongswitch to manoeuvre warfare. The West and Europeans in particular need to overhaul their financial regulations andcreate economies of scale to radically stimulate the production of drones, ammunition,armoured fighting vehicles, and more. Only if they carefully absorb the lessons learned from this war will Europeans be ready forthe types of great power confrontation that are becoming more likely in the 21stcentury The war of attrition The Russian war against Ukraine has become a war of attrition. Such a conflict will imposeenormous costs on both sides, but over time it will favour Russia. The Russian defence-industrial base cannot compensate for Russia  s current loss rates, but it can replace itsequipment faster than the West is, as of now, willing to do for Ukraine. For the time being atleast, a war of attrition implies a Russian victory. This outcome is far from inevitable. But Ukraine cannot overcome Russia in a war of attritionwithout stepped-up Western assistance. Ukraine  s Western allies thus have two inter-relatedtasks. Firstly, they need to dramatically increase their own capacity to produce key defenceequipment. There can be no victory in a war of attrition against Russia with current stocks ofequipment and current levels of Western defence production. Secondly, Ukraine  s supportersneed to provide the Ukrainian army with the equipment, training, and concepts necessary toreturn manoeuvre to the battlefield. Ukraine  s victory requires offensive action  and so therecan be to no Ukrainian success without a restored capacity to take back Russian territory. This paper describes what Ukraine  s European allies need to do to help Ukraine survive in thewar of attrition and eventually restore manoeuvre to the battlefield so that Ukraine can winthe war. These are not easy tasks  they will require years of political commitment and a highlevel of s