螺纹钢市场周报：楼市再现利好，螺纹钢期价止跌反弹

楼市再现利好，螺纹钢期价止跌反弹「2024.02.08」研究员：蔡跃辉期货从业资格号F0251444期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101助理研究员：李秋荣期货从业资格号F03101823王凯慧期货从业资格号F03100511螺纹钢市场周报关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况4、期权市场 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价止跌反弹。当前钢市仍处消费淡季，螺纹钢终端需求继续萎缩，库存量则持续提升，但随着股市受利好支撑反弹并带动市场信心回暖，另外一线城市春节前集中松绑楼市限购提升建筑钢材需求增加预期。螺纹钢期货减仓反弹。后市展望：供应端，本期螺纹钢周度产量继续下滑，产能利用率下调至45%下方，另外电弧炉钢厂开工率也降到低点，节后螺纹钢产量将逐步回升。需求端，下游需求持续萎缩，库存量进一步提升，表观消费量再度下滑；最后，股市回暖提振市场信心，宏观层面整体向好对远期钢价有支撑。操作策略：螺纹钢震荡偏多交易，注意风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡走高本周，RB2405合约止跌反弹。本周，RB2405合约走势强于RB2410合约，8日价差为23元/吨，周环比+14元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000018000002000000320033003400350036003700380039004000410042002023-05-042023-05-152023-05-242023-06-022023-06-132023-06-262023-07-052023-07-142023-07-252023-08-032023-08-142023-08-232023-09-012023-09-122023-09-212023-10-102023-10-192023-10-302023-11-082023-11-172023-11-282023-12-072023-12-182023-12-272024-01-082024-01-172024-01-262024-02-06RB2405收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e0102030405060702023-10-252023-10-302023-11-022023-11-072023-11-102023-11-152023-11-202023-11-232023-11-282023-12-012023-12-062023-12-112023-12-142023-12-192023-12-222023-12-272024-01-022024-01-052024-01-102024-01-152024-01-182024-01-232024-01-262024-01-312024-02-052024-02-08RB2405-RB2410合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单增加，前20名持仓净多减少2月8日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为119594吨，周环比+7509吨。2月8日，螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净多13688张，较上一周-1822张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002022-01-042022-02-012022-03-012022-03-292022-04-262022-05-242022-06-212022-07-192022-08-162022-09-132022-10-112022-11-082022-12-062023-01-032023-01-312023-02-282023-03-282023-04-252023-05-232023-06-202023-07-182023-08-152023-09-122023-10-102023-11-072023-12-052024-01-022024-01-30螺纹钢仓单日报-400000-300000-200000-1000000100000200000500000100000015000002000000250000030000002020-01-022020-02-282020-04-202020-06-112020-08-032020-09-212020-11-172021-01-062021-03-032021-04-222021-06-162021-08-042021-09-242021-11-192022-01-102022-03-072022-04-272022-06-212022-08-092022-09-282022-11-232023-01-122023-03-092023-04-282023-06-212023-08-112023-10-092023-11-272024-01-16螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格平稳，基差走弱2月8日，上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400（理计）现货报价为3920元/吨，周环比+0元/吨；全国均价为4031元/吨，周环比-4元/吨。本周，螺纹钢现货价格弱于期货价格，8日期现基差为66元/吨，周环比-29元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院330038004300480053002022-01-042022-01-242022-02-162022-03-082022-03-282022-04-182022-05-092022-05-272022-06-172022-07-072022-07-272022-08-162022-09-052022-09-262022-10-192022-11-082022-11-282022-12-162023-01-062023-01-312023-02-202023-03-102023-03-302023-04-202023-05-112023-05-312023-06-202023-07-112023-07-312023-08-182023-09-072023-09-272023-10-232023-11-102023-11-302023-12-202024-01-102024-01-30全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120033003800430048005300580063002021-06-012021-07-082021-08-132021-09-222021-11-042021-12-102022-01-182022-03-022022-04-112022-05-202022-06-282022-08-032022-09-082022-10-242022-11-292023-01-052023-02-172023-03-272023-05-082023-06-132023-07-212023-08-282023-10-112023-11-162023-12-222024-01-30螺纹钢5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格持平2月8日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报1043元/干吨，周环比-1元/干吨。2月8日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2440元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-192021-03-312021-05-142021-06-242021-08-032021-09-102021-10-292021-12-082022-01-182022-03-042022-04-152022-05-302022-07-082022-08-172022-09-272022-11-112022-12-212023-02-072023-03-172023-04-272023-06-092023-07-212023-08-302023-10-172023-11-242024-01-04青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨18002300280033003800430048002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-272023-05-312023-06-302023-07-312023-08-292023-09-272023-11-022023-12-012024-01-022024-01-31天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本期中国47港到港总量增加，港口库存增加1月29日-2月4日中国47港到港总量2481.6万吨，环比增加30.8万吨；中国45港到港总量2472.3万吨，环比增加162.9万吨；北方六港到港总量为1416.4万吨，环比增加322.5万吨。2月8日，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为13147.84，环比增201.62；日均疏港量303.48降1.12。分量方面，澳矿5709.68增41.83，巴西矿4972.67增116.48；贸易矿7604.16增35.7，（单位：万吨）。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-01-042019-03-222019-05-312019-08-092019-10-252020-01-032020-03-202020-05-292020-08-072020-10-162020-12-252021-03-122021-05-212021-07-302021-10-082021-12-172022-02-252022-05-062022-07-222022-09-302022-12-092023-02-172023-04-282023-07-072023-09-152023-11-242024-02-02铁矿石港口库存与矿价库存量（左）澳洲麦克粉61%（右）单位：万吨单位：元-1500-1000-50005001000150015001700190021002300250027002900310033002021