地产行业再现利好，螺纹钢探低反弹「2023.05.26」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638螺纹钢市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价探低反弹。由于终端需求表现不佳，钢厂利润偏低持续挤压炉料，叠加美国债务上限问题尚无定论、美欧高利率所带来的经济衰退担忧致使市场情绪较为悲观，螺纹钢期价连破3600、3500、3400关口支撑，直至周五，房地产行业再现利好，同时美债务上限磋商取得进展，一定程度上缓和市场紧张气氛，并支撑期价低位反弹。后市展望：供应端，本期螺纹钢周度产量由降转增，同比降幅缩小，供应量或进一步提升；需求端，终端采购一般，贸易商囤货意愿不高，仍以降库为主；最后，美债务上限磋商取得进展，避险情绪放缓。操作上建议，RB2310合约于3450-3630区间低买高抛，止损60元/吨。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先抑后扬本周，RB2310合约先抑后扬。本周，RB2310合约走势弱于RB2401合约，26日价差为59元/吨，周环比-1元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院30003200340036003800400042004400350050350010035001503500200350025035002022-11-012022-11-082022-11-152022-11-222022-11-292022-12-062022-12-132022-12-202022-12-272023-01-042023-01-112023-01-182023-02-012023-02-082023-02-152023-02-222023-03-012023-03-082023-03-152023-03-222023-03-292023-04-062023-04-132023-04-202023-04-272023-05-092023-05-162023-05-23RB2310收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e-300-200-10001002003002022-01-202022-02-112022-02-282022-03-152022-03-302022-04-182022-05-062022-05-232022-06-082022-06-232022-07-082022-07-252022-08-092022-08-242022-09-082022-09-262022-10-182022-11-022022-11-172022-12-022022-12-192023-01-042023-01-192023-02-102023-02-272023-03-142023-03-292023-04-142023-05-042023-05-19RB10-RB01合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单减少，前20名持仓净空增加5月26日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为32982吨，周环比-300吨。5月26日，螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空88995张，较上一周增加21947张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-012021-03-292021-04-262021-05-242021-06-212021-07-192021-08-162021-09-132021-10-112021-11-082021-12-062022-01-032022-01-312022-02-282022-03-282022-04-252022-05-232022-06-202022-07-182022-08-152022-09-122022-10-102022-11-072022-12-052023-01-022023-01-302023-02-272023-03-272023-04-242023-05-22螺纹钢仓单日报-200000-150000-100000-5000005000010000015000010000001200000140000016000001800000200000022000002021-12-092021-12-312022-01-252022-02-232022-03-172022-04-122022-05-092022-05-312022-06-232022-07-152022-08-082022-08-302022-09-222022-10-212022-11-142022-12-062022-12-282023-01-202023-02-202023-03-142023-04-062023-04-282023-05-25螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格下调，基差走弱5月26日，上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400（理计）现货报价为3530元/吨，周环比-190元/吨；全国均价为3690元/吨，周环比-131元/吨。本周，螺纹钢现货价格弱于期货，26日期现基差为37元/吨，周环比-38元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3300380043004800530058002022-01-042022-01-182022-01-302022-02-182022-03-042022-03-182022-04-012022-04-182022-04-292022-05-172022-05-312022-06-152022-06-292022-07-132022-07-272022-08-102022-08-242022-09-072022-09-222022-10-112022-10-252022-11-082022-11-222022-12-062022-12-202023-01-042023-01-182023-02-062023-02-202023-03-062023-03-202023-04-032023-04-182023-05-042023-05-17全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120014003000350040004500500055002021-11-012021-11-172021-12-032021-12-212022-01-072022-01-252022-02-172022-03-072022-03-232022-04-122022-04-282022-05-192022-06-072022-06-232022-07-112022-07-272022-08-122022-08-302022-09-162022-10-112022-10-272022-11-142022-11-302022-12-162023-01-042023-01-202023-02-142023-03-022023-03-202023-04-062023-04-242023-05-15螺纹钢10月合约期现基差10月基差期货收盘价(10月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格下调5月26日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报779元/干吨，周环比-47元/干吨。5月26日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2140元/吨，周环比-50元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-042021-03-152021-04-152021-05-202021-06-222021-07-222021-08-232021-09-242021-11-022021-12-022022-01-042022-02-102022-03-142022-04-152022-05-202022-06-222022-07-222022-08-232022-09-232022-11-012022-12-012023-01-032023-02-092023-03-132023-04-132023-05-18青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-27天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加，港口库存增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2502.0万吨，环比增加174.2万吨。5月26日，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12793.83，环比增7.62；日均疏港量291.71增4.79。分量方面，澳矿5877.95降9.14，巴西矿4399.84增19.48；贸易矿7635.39增29.16（单位：万吨）。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-212022-10-092022-11-272023-01-152023-03-052023-04-23澳巴铁矿石发货总量增减澳巴总量250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-01-042019-03-082019-05-032019-06-282019-08-232019-10-252019-12-202020-02-212020