终端需求继续释放，螺纹钢期价止跌反弹「2023.03.31」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638螺纹钢市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价止跌反弹。随着避险情绪降温，大宗商品价格普遍反弹，叠加炉料走高，炼钢成本上移，钢厂利润收缩挺价意愿较高，支撑螺纹钢期现货价格走高。后市展望：供应端，本期螺纹钢周度产量继续小幅回升，周度产能利用率提升至66%，由于螺纹产量相对平稳，供应压力不大；需求端，终端需求继续释放，库存量延续下滑，表观消费量由降转增，提振市场信心。操作上建议，RB2310合约考虑回调做多，止损参考4050。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡上行本周，RB2305合约震荡上行。本周，RB2305合约走势弱于RB2310合约，31日价差为25元/吨，周环比-22元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3000320034003600380040004200440046004800350050350010035001503500200350025035002022-06-012022-06-132022-06-222022-07-012022-07-122022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-09-292022-10-172022-10-262022-11-042022-11-152022-11-242022-12-052022-12-142022-12-232023-01-042023-01-132023-01-312023-02-092023-02-202023-03-012023-03-102023-03-212023-03-30RB2305收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e0204060801001202022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-31RB2305-RB2310合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单持平，前20名持仓净空减少3月31日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为92213吨，周环比+0吨。3月31日，螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空13544张，较上一周减少13752张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-012021-03-292021-04-262021-05-242021-06-212021-07-192021-08-162021-09-132021-10-112021-11-082021-12-062022-01-032022-01-312022-02-282022-03-282022-04-252022-05-232022-06-202022-07-182022-08-152022-09-122022-10-102022-11-072022-12-052023-01-022023-01-302023-02-272023-03-27螺纹钢仓单日报-200000-150000-100000-5000005000010000015000010000001200000140000016000001800000200000022000002021-12-092021-12-292022-01-192022-02-152022-03-072022-03-252022-04-182022-05-112022-05-312022-06-212022-07-112022-07-292022-08-182022-09-072022-09-282022-10-252022-11-142022-12-022022-12-222023-01-122023-02-082023-02-282023-03-20螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调，基差走弱3月31日，上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400（理计）现货报价为4260元/吨，周环比+50元/吨；全国均价为4292元/吨，周环比+27元/吨。本周，螺纹钢现货价格弱于期货，31日期现基差为99元/吨，周环比-4元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-172022-01-282022-02-152022-02-282022-03-112022-03-242022-04-072022-04-202022-05-052022-05-172022-05-302022-06-132022-06-242022-07-072022-07-202022-08-022022-08-152022-08-262022-09-082022-09-222022-10-102022-10-212022-11-032022-11-162022-11-292022-12-122022-12-232023-01-062023-01-192023-02-062023-02-172023-03-022023-03-152023-03-28全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120033003800430048005300580063002021-06-232021-07-162021-08-102021-09-022021-09-292021-10-292021-11-232021-12-162022-01-112022-02-102022-03-072022-03-302022-04-262022-05-242022-06-172022-07-122022-08-042022-08-292022-09-222022-10-242022-11-162022-12-092023-01-042023-02-032023-02-282023-03-23螺纹钢5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平3月31日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报963元/干吨，周环比+51元/干吨。3月31日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2910元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-032021-03-112021-04-122021-05-142021-06-152021-07-142021-08-122021-09-102021-10-202021-11-182021-12-172022-01-182022-02-232022-03-242022-04-262022-05-302022-06-292022-07-282022-08-262022-09-272022-11-022022-12-012022-12-302023-02-072023-03-08青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-28天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量减少，港口库存下滑据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2402.5万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。3月31日Mysteel统计全国45个港口铁矿石库存为13461.24，环比降143.42；日均疏港量315.85增12.51。分量方面，澳矿6376.66降43.83，巴西矿4475.63降172.3；贸易矿7797.83降184.98。（单位：万吨）图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-02-012019-04-052019-05-312019-07-262019-09-202019-11-222020-01-172020-03-202020-05-152020-07-102020-09-042020-10-302020-12-252021-02-262021-04-232021-06-182021-08-132021-10-082021-12-032022-01-282022-03-252022-05-202022-07-152022-09-092022-11-042022-12-302023-02-24铁矿石港口库存与矿价库存量（左）澳洲麦克粉61%（右）单位：万吨单位：元-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312