南华甲醇产业链数据周报：价格仍然偏强

20240204F3046357 Z0015428F03100606 1WIND 20100020003000400050006000太仓走货量（周均值）2019202020212022202320240500010000150002000025000300003500040000华东下游库存（不含山东）202120222023202451525354555沿海可流通库存20192020202120222023202401000200030004000500060007000太仓走货量（周高位）2019202020212022202320240500100015002000250030003500400045005000太仓走货量（周低位）201920202021202220232024 3050100150200甲醇持仓量（单边计算）20202021202220232024050100150200250300350400450500甲醇成交量2020202120222023202405101520253035甲醇纸货成交量2021202220232024 415001700190021002300250027002023-09-152023-10-152023-11-152023-12-152024-01-15区域价格汇总1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500太仓价格20212022202320241,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500北线价格20212022202320241,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500鲁北价格2021202220232024WIND 5++1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002019-03-072020-03-072021-03-072022-03-072023-03-0705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002019-09-112020-09-112021-09-112022-09-112023-09-11甲醇顶部指标甲醇仓单及有效预报加总20202021202220232024050001000015000200002500030000甲醇仓单20202021202220232024WIND 601-350-250-150-50501502503504505506507/17/318/309/2910/2911/2812/280509-2000200400600800100011/112/112/311/302/293/304/29-250-501503505503/13/314/305/306/297/298/281-55-99-1-150-50501502503504505506509/110/110/3111/3012/30-200-10001002003004001/11/313/13/314/30-200-160-120-80-4005/15/316/307/308/29WIND 7202455%60%65%70%75%80%甲醇全国开工率2020202120222023202455%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%西北甲醇开工率2020202120222023202450%55%60%65%70%75%甲醇非一体化开工率20202021202220232024212223242526272024甲醇日产（检修预测） 86111621263136414651到港总量20202021202220232024020406080100120未来两周预计甲醇到港量2019202020212022202320246111621263136414651华东到港量20202021202220232024024681012141618华南到港量20202021202220232024 MTO9MTOMTO 2024MTO50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%MTO开工率20192020202120222023202420%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%华东MTO开工率20202021202220232024•02468101214沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总 10010002000300040005000600070008000900010000醋酸价格（江苏）202020212022202320241600180020002200240026002800300032003400醋酸成本20192020202120222023202401000200030004000500060007000醋酸利润2019202020212022202320240510152025醋酸库存202020212022202320240200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月醋酸出口量2018201920202021202220230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%醋酸乙酯开工率20192020202120222023202430%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%醋酸乙烯开工率201920202021202220232024WIND0510152025醋酸库存结构山东华东华北西北华中其他 118001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200甲醛价格700900110013001500170019002100甲醛成本201920202021202220232024-150-5050150250350450甲醛利润2019202020212022202320240500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500005000002022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312023-02-282023-03-312023-04-302023-05-312023-06-302023-07-312023-08-312023-09-302023-10-312023-11-302023-12-31甲醛月产量WIND 12LPG/DMEDME2000250030003500400045005000550060006500河南二甲醚价格2019202020212022202320242000250030003500400045005000550060006500河南二甲醚成本201920202021202220232024-600-400-2000200400600800河南二甲醚利润20192020202120222023202410%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%0.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.72019/1/12020/1/12021/1/12022/1/12023/1/1LPG/DME与DME开工率相关性LPG/DMEDME开工率WIND 13020004000600080001000012000甲醛下游精细化工价格波动2503003504004505001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月甲醇除MTO需求（倒推）2019202020212022202320224100,000110,000120,000130,000140,000150,000160,000170,000180,000190,000全国下游库存2021202220232024050001000015000200002500030000西北下游库存2021202220232024 -14--01002003004005006002021-12-302022-01-302022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312023-02-282023-03-312023-04-302023-05-312023-06-302023-07-312023-08-312023-09-302023-10-312023-11-302023-12-312024-01-31各地至鲁北运费宝鸡达拉特旗榆林-60-40-20020406080100120140180018501900195020002050210021502200225023002023-08-102023-09-102023-10-102023-11-102023-12-102024-01-10鲁北价差100150200250300350400450500550达拉特旗-东营运费2021202220232024100150200250300350400450500榆林-东营运费202120222023202450100150200250300350400450宝鸡-临沂运费2021202220232024 PE/MA15PP-3MAPP/MAMA/UR-2000-1500-1000-500050010001500200025003000PP-3MA2019202020212022202320242.53.03.54.04.55.05.5PE/MA比价2.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.34.5PP/MA比价202020212022202320240.81.01.21.41.61.82.0MA/UR比价20202021202220232024WIND Q480016Q550055Q5500020040060080010001200140016001800鄂尔多斯Q5500（马泰壕）20202021202220232024-4001006001100160021002600秦皇岛Q5500（周）20202021202220232024-10010030050070090011001300广州Q4800(印尼产）2020202120222023202430003500400045005000550060006500700075008000动力煤55港库存202020212022202320245007009001100130015001700190021002300动力煤环渤海三港库存20202021202220232024 /136310008400 8888 910www.nanhua.net603093