受益于重卡行业复苏叠加出海高景气，公司2023年利润实现同比高增；维持“买入”

EquityResearch CompanyReport:WeichaiPower(02338HK)中文版 IvanWu吴凱翔 (852)25092649 公司报告：潍柴动力(02338HK)Chineseversionivan.wu@gtjas.com.hk25January2024 受益于重卡行业复苏叠加出海高景气，公司2023年利润实现同比高增；维持“买入” CompanyReport 维持“买入”评级，上调目标价至17.00港元。潍柴动力（“公司”）2023年预告业绩大致符合我们此前预期。考虑到新的股权激励以及重卡行业的复苏进展，我们微调公司2023-2025年每股盈利至人民币1.039元(-0.025)/人民币 1.370元/人民币1.638元。基于公司在动力总成行业的竞争优势以及其他产 Rating:Buy Maintained 评级：买入(维持) 品较强的差异化优势，我们给予公司10倍的2024年市盈率，对应目标价 17.00港元。 受益于重卡行业复苏叠加出海高景气，公司2023年利润实现同比高增。公司 2023年预计实现归属于母公司股东的净利润为人民币85.8亿元—人民币 EquityResearchReport 93.2亿元，同比大增75%-90%；预计实现扣非归属于母公司股东的净利润为人民币73.9亿元—人民币82.1亿元，同比大增125%—150%，其中公司2023年第四季度预计实现归属于母公司股东的净利润人民币21亿元—人民币28亿元，同比增长31%-77%。 6-18mTP目标价:HK$17.00 HK$15.90 Shareprice股价：HK$14.100 Stockperformance 股价表现 新股权激励目标较为进取，有望提振管理层及市场信心，从而进一步推动公司业务稳定增长和促进产品销售。公司目前正在加快WP发动机、甲醇发动机、氢内燃机等新能源动力总成的研发和应用。在进取的股权激励目标加持下，有望扩大公司的领先优势，进一步促进产品在国内外市场的销售。 重卡行业持续复苏，出海高景气叠加天然气重卡放量有望带动行业市场结构调整。自2023年以来，天然气重卡销量放量和持续高景气出口带动重卡行业复苏。2023年中国重卡销量（含出口）合计约91万辆，同比增长35.6%。 我们预计2024年重卡行业将延续复苏态势。公司是中国重卡动力总成的龙头，因此我们持续看好其在重卡柴油引擎和高功率和大缸引擎的行业领先优 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) %ofreturn 势，全球市占率将稳步提升。公司将显著受益于行业结构调整带来的新机遇。 AutomobilesSector 风险：1）重卡行业需求复苏可能不及预期；2）海外经济复苏可能差于预期。 Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24 ChangeinSharePrice1M股价变动1个月 3M 3个月 1Y 1年 Abs.%11.2绝对变动% 22.8 19.1 Rel.%toHSIndex12.0 28.0 45.6 Avg.shareprice（HK$）10.9 10.4 10.7 HSIIndexWeichaiPower 相对恒指变动% 平均股价（港元） 资料来源：Bloomberg、国泰君安国际。 股 票研 究 公 司报 告 证 券研究报 告 汽 车行 业 潍 柴动 力 YearEnd 年结 12/31 TurnoverNetProfit 收入股东净利 (RMBm)(RMBm) EPSEPS 每股净利每股净利变动 (RMB)(�%) PERBPS 市盈率每股净资产 (x)(RMB) PBRDPS 市净率每股股息 (x)(RMB) YieldROE 股息率净资产收益率 (%)(%) WeichaiPower(02338HK) 2021A220,2159,4931.131(2.6)10.28.5851.30.1851.615.4 2022A175,1584,9050.565(50.0)22.18.4351.50.1581.36.8 2023F205,0648,9781.03983.812.39.2701.40.3953.111.7 2024F225,80011,8341.37031.89.410.1101.30.4593.614.1 2025F245,00214,1531.63819.67.811.2141.10.4673.615.4 Sharesinissue(m)总股数(m) 8,639.3 Majorshareholder大股东 SPSASAC16.3% Marketcap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m) 121,814.8 Freefloat(%)自由流通比率(%) 83.7 3monthaveragevol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000) 10,292.4 FY23Netgearing(%)FY23净负债/股东资金(%) NetCash 52Weekshigh/low(HK$)52周高/低(HK$) 14.880/9.360 FY23Est.NAV(HK$)FY23每股估值（港元） 17.9 Source:theCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational. SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3 财务报表及比率 损益表 YearEnd31Dec(RMBm)2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue220,215175,158205,064225,800245,002 Costofsales(178,434)(144,011)(165,281)(180,640)(195,511) Grossprofit41,78131,14739,78245,16049,490 Otherincome9251,6447861,4101,723 Otherexpenses1,1431,2968479311,246 Taxesandsurcharges(840)(481)(673)(761)(456) Impairmentloss(1,248)(1,288)(1,416)(1,317)(1,022) Distributionandsellingexpenses(11,490)(10,661)(12,099)(13,322)(14,455) Generalandadministrative(8,669)(8,092)(9,187)(9,935)(10,780) R&Dexpenses(7,313)(7,731)(7,177)(7,903)(8,575) Operatingprofit14,2895,83410,86314,26317,171 Non-operatingincome/lossnet170251327310512 Profitbeforetax14,4606,08511,19014,57417,683 Incometax(2,276)(403)(918)(1,049)(1,415) Profitaftertax12,1845,68310,27213,52416,268 Non-controllinginterest(2,691)(778)(1,294)(1,691)(2,115) Shareholders'profit/loss9,4934,9058,97811,83414,153 现金流量表 BasicEPS(RMB/share)1.1310.5651.0391.3701.638 YearEnd31Dec(RMBm)2021A2022A2023F2024F2025F Profitfortheyear12,1845,68310,27213,52416,268 D&A10,96811,14830,68928,73826,927 Impairmentloss1,2481,2881,4161,3171,022 Others250(143)2,0451,117206 Changesinworkingcapital:(3,933)(20,324)(1,185)(1,914)(2,251) Cashfromoperatingactivities20,717(2,349)43,23742,78342,171Investingactivities Cashreceivedfrominvestments32,67135,2881,478(98)537 Netcashreceivedfromdisposal360559(1,067)(925)(796) Cashpaidforacquisition(38,075)(46,039)(40,161)(35,596)(33,696) Others(336)1,647(1,650)(1,762)(1,808) Cashfrominvestingactivities(5,381)(8,545)(41,399)(38,382)(35,762)Financingactivities Cashreceivedfromfinancing24,53233,885(4,763)1,9512,824 Dividendspaid(5,874)(4,836)(2,688)(4,037)(4,133) 资产负债表 YearEnd31Dec(RMBm)2021A2022A2023F2024F2025F 25January2024 PPE&right-of-useassets40,74842,92944,33344,04844,203 Investmentproperties650622653686720 Goodwill22,84724,01926,42129,06331,969 Intangibleassets22,68722,75922,91923,05623,172 Constructioninprogress6,1067,9808,7789,65610,622 Deferredtaxassets5,9874,9054,7165,1935,635 Othernon-currentassets20,52221,96723,51725,24127,154 Totalnon-currentassets119,547125,182131,338136,944143,475 Inventories35,42533,37435,04336,79538,635 WeichaiPower潍柴动力(02338HK) Tradeandotherreceivables38,96839,25440,08541,38243,156 Balanceofrestrictedcash11,0528,0819,9019,91510,011 Cash&cashequivalents68,62662,76154,87855,37759,024 Othercurrentassets20,03725,01427,07729,44732,073 Totalcurrentassets174,109168,484166,984172,916182,898 Totalassets293,656293,666298,322309,859326,373 Tradeandotherpayables93,22183,57585,33087,45589,594 Short-termloans2,4184,6093,6872,9502,360 Contractliabilities16,22013,08711,77810,6009,540 Othercurrentliabilities17,14918,47218,70419,02119,507 Totalcurrentliabilities129,008119,743119,499120,0