重卡行业复苏和出口强劲增长双引擎驱动，3Q2023业绩同比高增，“买入”

EquityResearch CompanyReport:WeichaiPower(02338HK)中文版 IvanWu吴凱翔 (852)25092649 公司报告：潍柴动力(02338HK)Chineseversionivan.wu@gtjas.com.hk 1November2023 重卡行业复苏和出口强劲增长双引擎驱动，3Q2023业绩同比高增，“买入” CompanyReport 评级“买入”，目标价15.90港元。考虑到国内经济逐步复苏和重卡出口市场强劲的推动下，我们预计潍柴动力（“公司”）2023-2025年EPS分别为人民币1.064元/人民币1.370元/人民币1.638元。基于公司在动力总成的行业竞争 优势和其他产品较为明显的差异化优势，我们给予公司10倍的2024年PE估值，对应目标价为15.90港元。 3Q2023业绩同比继续快速增长，盈利能力持续提升。公司2023年第三季度收入同比增长24.0%，达到人民币542亿元。2023年第三季度，毛利率同比增 EquityResearchReport 长6.5个百分点至21.8%。公司录得归母净利润26亿元，同比增长182.5%，环比增长27.3%。公司扣除非经常性损益后的归母净利润达人民币23亿元，同比增长344.1%。公司前三季度的毛利率为20.2%，同比升3.3个百分点，净利率达4.1%，同比升1.5个百分点。其中3Q2023毛利率为21.8%，同比升 6.5个百分点，净利率达4.8%，同比升2.7个百分点。 Rating:Buy 评级：买入 6-18mTP目标价:HK$15.90 Shareprice股价：HK$11.700 Stockperformance 股价表现 重卡+动力总成双业务驱动公司业务增长，4Q2023业务高增态势可期。前三季度的重卡市场需求旺盛，累计销量（含出口）达70.1万辆，同比增长34.0%， 高于去年全年67.0万辆的总销量。公司前三季度发动机销量达54.8万台，同比增长24.5%；其中重卡发动机销量达22.2万台，占比40.5%；发动机出口销量为5.2万台，同比增长35.6%。产品竞争力不断凸显。1-3Q2023，陕重汽销量为9.2万辆，同比增长52.0%；其中重卡出口销量为4.2万辆，同比增长71.9%。行业景气度已上升至景气通道，4Q2023业务高增态势可期。 股权激励新催化剂有望助力公司业务持续高增，加速产品上量。公司宣布股权激励计划来激励管理层和员工助力公司业务持续高增，计划将向716名公司董 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) %ofreturn 事、高管以及中层管理和核心技术人员，合计授予8,544万股限制性股票，占 AutomobilesSector 总股本比例0.98%。公司业务布局广泛，且行业龙头地位显著。公司正加快WP发动机、甲醇发动机、氢内燃机等新能源动力系统业务的研发和应用，有望扩大公司龙头优势，加速产品国内外同时上量。 风险：1）重卡行业需求复苏不及预期；2）海外经济复苏慢于预期。 Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23HSIIndexWeichaiPower ChangeinSharePrice1M股价变动1个月 3M 3个月 1Y 1年 Abs.%9.8绝对变动% 1.7 55.6 Rel.%toHSIndex13.7 16.5 39.1 Avg.shareprice（HK$）10.9 10.4 10.7 相对恒指变动% 平均股价（港元） Source:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational. 股 票研 究 公 司报 告 证 券研究报 告 汽 车行 业 潍 柴动 力 YearEnd 年结 12/31 TurnoverNetProfit 收入股东净利 (RMBm)(RMBm) EPSEPS 每股净利每股净利变动 (RMB)(�%) PERBPS 市盈率每股净资产 (x)(RMB) PBRDPS 市净率每股股息 (x)(RMB) YieldROE 股息率净资产收益率 (%)(%) WeichaiPower(02338HK) 2021A220,2159,4931.131(2.6)8.48.5851.10.1851.915.4 2022A175,1584,9050.565(50.0)18.38.4351.20.1581.56.8 2023F205,0649,1921.06488.210.39.2951.20.4043.712.0 2024F225,80011,8341.37028.78.010.1261.10.4594.214.1 2025F245,00214,1531.63819.66.711.2291.00.4674.315.3 Sharesinissue(m)总股数(m) 8,639.3 Majorshareholder大股东 SPSASAC16.3% Marketcap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m) 102,079.7 Freefloat(%)自由流通比率(%) 83.7 3monthaveragevol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000) 6,689.0 FY23Netgearing(%)FY23净负债/股东资金(%) NetCash 52Weekshigh/low(HK$)52周高/低(HK$) 13.700/7.210 FY23Est.NAV(HK$)FY23每股估值（港元） 17.1 Source:theCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational. SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3 财务报表及比率 损益表 YearEnd31Dec(RMBm)2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue220,215175,158205,064225,800245,002 Costofsales(178,434)(144,011)(165,281)(180,640)(195,511) Grossprofit41,78131,14739,78245,16049,490 Otherincome9251,6447861,4101,723 Otherexpenses1,1431,2968479311,246 Taxesandsurcharges(840)(481)(673)(761)(456) Impairmentloss(1,248)(1,288)(1,416)(1,317)(1,022) Distributionandsellingexpenses(11,490)(10,661)(12,099)(13,322)(14,455) Generalandadministrative(8,669)(8,092)(9,023)(9,935)(10,780) R&Dexpenses(7,313)(7,731)(7,177)(7,903)(8,575) Operatingprofit14,2895,83411,02714,26317,171 Non-operatingincome/loss,net170251327310512 Profitbeforetax14,4606,08511,35414,57417,683 Incometax(2,276)(403)(908)(1,049)(1,415) Profitaftertax12,1845,68310,44513,52416,268 Non-controllinginterest(2,691)(778)(1,253)(1,691)(2,115) Shareholders'profit/loss9,4934,9059,19211,83414,153 现金流量表 BasicEPS(RMB/share)1.1310.5651.0641.3701.638 YearEnd31Dec(RMBm)2021A2022A2023F2024F2025F Profitfortheyear12,1845,68310,44513,52416,268 D&A10,96811,14830,68928,73826,927 Impairmentloss1,2481,2881,4161,3171,022 Others250(143)2,0451,117206 Changesinworkingcapital:(3,933)(20,324)(1,185)(1,914)(2,251) Cashfromoperatingactivities20,717(2,349)43,41042,78342,171Investingactivities Cashreceivedfrominvestments32,67135,2881,478(98)537 Netcashreceivedfromdisposal360559(1,067)(925)(796) Cashpaidforacquisition(38,075)(46,039)(40,161)(35,596)(33,696) Others(336)1,647(1,650)(1,762)(1,808) Cashfrominvestingactivities(5,381)(8,545)(41,399)(38,382)(35,762)Financingactivities Cashreceivedfromfinancing24,53233,885(4,763)1,9512,824 Dividendspaid(5,874)(4,836)(2,688)(4,118)(4,133) 资产负债表 YearEnd31Dec(RMBm)2021A2022A2023F2024F2025F 1November2023 PPE&right-of-useassets40,74842,92944,33344,04844,203 Investmentproperties650622653686720 Goodwill22,84724,01926,42129,06331,969 Intangibleassets22,68722,75922,91923,05623,172 Constructioninprogress6,1067,9808,7789,65610,622 Deferredtaxassets5,9874,9054,7165,1935,635 Othernon-currentassets20,52221,96723,51725,24127,154 Totalnon-currentassets119,547125,182131,338136,944143,475 Inventories35,42533,37435,04336,79538,635 WeichaiPower潍柴动力(02338HK) Tradeandotherreceivables38,96839,25440,08541,38243,156 Balanceofrestrictedcash11,0528,0819,9019,91510,011 Cash&cashequivalents68,62662,76155,05155,46959,116 Othercurrentassets20,03725,01427,07729,44732,073 Totalcurrentassets174,109168,484167,157173,008182,990 Totalassets293,656293,666298,495309,951326,465 Tradeandotherpayables93,22183,57585,33087,45589,594 Short-termloans2,4184,6093,6872,9502,360 Contractliabilities1