钢铁行业周报：淡季需求偏弱，累库幅度加快

主要观点： 报告日期：2024-01-13 ⚫钢材市场：淡季需求偏弱，市场稳定运行。 成本端：铁水下降导致原料需求有所减少，因此原料价格有继续下调预期，成本端支撑略有减弱。 供应端：整体产量回落，北方地区受天气影响导致钢厂检修及不饱和生产。 高频数据： 1）钢材价格：Myspic综合钢价指数-0.82%，其中长材、扁平板分别-0.92%、-0.68%。螺纹钢价格为3930元/吨，环比-1.26%；热轧板卷价格4120元/吨，环比-0.72%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为938.5元/吨，环比-5.15%；焦炭价格为2386元/吨，环比-2.63%；焦煤价格为1788.5元/吨，环比-3.11%。 执业证书号：S0010523120003邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为82.02（+1.33%）/303.76（-2.1%）/92.96（-2.69%）/148.13（+1.79%）/242.41（-0.73%）万吨。开工率：高炉产能利用率82.56%，环比+0.97pct；高炉开工率76.08%，环比+0.45pct；电炉产能利用率59.97%，环比-0.42pct；电炉开工率61.54%，环比+0pct。库存：总社库960.58万吨，环比+4.03%；总厂库432.19万吨，环比-1.93%；螺纹社库448.45万吨，环比+6.07%；螺纹厂库184.05万吨，环比-1.02%。 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏叠加碳达峰、碳中和背景，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块。当前在市场低利率环境下，建议配置高股息、低估值的个股，建议关注华菱钢铁、宝钢股份、南钢股份；产品创新推动钢铁在新兴领域应用，建议关注高端产品持续放量的久立特材、冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性标的甬金股份。 1.关注钢铁板块低估值、高股息标的2024-01-062.钢铁周报：南钢股权落地，关注板块低估值个股2023-12-103.钢铁年度策略：暖风频吹，拨云见日2023-12-04 ⚫风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1.1本周钢铁板块走势...............................................................................................................................................................41.2各钢铁板块走势...................................................................................................................................................................4 2.1个股周涨跌幅.......................................................................................................................................................................52.2公司公告...............................................................................................................................................................................5 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨幅（%）...................................................................................................................................................4图表2本周钢铁子板块涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................................................................4图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................5图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................5图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................5图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）.......................................................................................................................................................6图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.................................................................................................................................................6图表8板材价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................................................................6图表9铁矿石及两焦合约价（元/吨）........................................................................................................................................7图表10铁矿石期现价格（元/吨）..............................................................................................................................................7图表11焦炭期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表12焦煤期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表13焦炭库存：国内247家钢厂（万吨）............................................................................................................................7图表14港口焦炭库存（万吨）....................................................................................................................................................7图表15各品种钢材钢厂库存监控................................................................................................................................................8图表16钢材社会库存：合计（万吨）........................................................................................................................................8图表17钢材社会库存：分类（万吨）........................................................................................................................................8图表18全国钢厂高炉产能利用率（%）.....................................................................................................................................9图表19全国高炉开工率（247家）（%）....................................................................................................................................9图表20样本钢厂电炉产能利用率：全国（%）.........................................................................................................................9图表21全国电炉开工率（%）..................................................................................................