油脂日报：MPOB报告利多，油脂集体上涨

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2305合约7226元/吨，环比上涨172元，涨幅2.44%；昨日收盘豆油2305合约7548元/吨，环比上涨128元，涨幅1.73%；昨日收盘菜油2305合约7929元/吨，环比上涨74元，涨幅0.94%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货7296元/吨，环比上涨257元，涨幅3.65%，现货基差P05+70，环比上涨6；天津地区一级豆油现货8104元/吨，环比上涨144，涨幅1.81%，现货基差Y05+556，环比上涨8；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格无报价。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为354465吨，较上月同期出口的368990吨减少3.94%。据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚1月1-10日棕榈油出口量为349075吨，上月同期为386986吨，环比减少9.79%。阿根廷豆油(2月船期) C&F价格907美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调8美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4月船期)C&F价格895美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调10美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（2月船期）C&F价格1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调50美元/吨；进口菜油(4月船期)C&F价格1070元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调50美元/吨。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格震荡上涨，MPOB报告利多叠加马棕油上涨提振，三大油脂止跌企稳，大幅上涨。棕榈油方面，整体看，林吉特汇率疲软、原油止跌回升、棕榈油季节性减产和印度强劲消费给棕榈油带来支撑；叠加印尼和马来缓慢去存，今年一季度主产国库存不高，国内也在缓慢去库，都限制了棕榈油的下跌幅度，棕榈油短期有望企稳止跌，震荡偏强。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要......................................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析..............................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷........................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.......................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨...........................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油