全球内容软件龙头，踏生成式AI浪潮再启航

美股 增持（首次） ＃title＃全球内容软件龙头，踏生成式AI浪潮再启航 目标价：630.1美元现价：598.75美元 2023年12月23日 投资要点summary 预期升幅：5.2% ＃全球软件龙头公司，核心产品覆盖完整内容供应链。Adobe核心业务包括创意云（Creative Cloud）、文件云（Document Cloud）和体验云（Experience Cloud），其中创意云是以Photoshop为核心的创意设计软件组合，市占率达69%；文件云包括Acrobat类PDF编辑及阅读软件，市占率97%；而体验云代表公司业务从内容制作到内容营销的延伸。创意云和文件云共同组成数字媒体业务，体验云对应数字体验业务，二者FY2023收入占比分别为73%、25%。 生成式AI降低创意工具使用门槛，创意软件市场有望突破增长瓶颈。传统创意软件市场步入成熟阶段，2024-2028年CAGR预计下滑至2.2%，生成式AI技术的出现降低了创意工具使用门槛，使创意软件不再局限于少数专业人群，Adobe调研发现65%的非专业用户认为生成式AI提高了数字内容的生成量，扩大了创意软件市场的可触达用户范围，有望迎来新的市场增长曲线。据GlobeNewswire预测，2022-2032年数字内容生成市场规模在AIGC推动下CAGR高达25%。Adobe Firefly于3月推出，8个月累计生成超过45亿张图片，10月迭代发布图像模型2.0以及初代矢量和设计模型，预计未来将落地3D模型、视频等形式，应用场景广阔。 Firefly有望凭借合规与工作流融合优势抓住AIGC商业应用落地先机。Firefly于11月1日正式收费启动，有望通过全线产品订阅提价（约9%）与额外按量计费的商业模式较快贡献可观收入。公司在AIGC应用落地优势包括：1）生成内容的合规性是商业客户选择生成式AI产品的核心考量因素之一，Firefly完全基于有版权数据进行训练，同时承诺承担侵权带来的索赔，或成为企业用户尝试AIGC商用的首选；2）Firefly内嵌于Photoshop等旗舰产品中，相较其他文生图软件，为用户提供更多后续专业编辑空间，以更低迁移成本融入到设计日常工作流中；3）基于过往积累的大量创意设计数据、技术与客户，Firefly模型能力保持领先梯队。 ＃relatedReport＃相关报告 ＃emailAuthor＃海外TMT研究 分析师：洪嘉骏hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190519080002SFC：BPL829 Sensei GenAI落地体验云，拓展数字体验增长潜力。CXM（客户体验管理）是传统CRM的衍生，相对更加侧重实时获取每位用户的体验数据并提供个性化服务。据Precedence Research预测，CXM市场规模2022-2032年CAGR达到15%，而生成式AI对规划、执行、分析等营销各方面的重塑将进一步打开其增长空间。Adobe是CXM市场的龙头公司，并于3月发布用于体验云的生成式AI创新服务Sensei GenAI，6月起陆续上线营销文案生成、对话、客群细分、内容摘要等功能，应用于客户体验管理的销售、营销及客户服务等环节。生成式CXM功能有望提升品牌营销ROI，提高用户粘性及ARPU，充分发挥体验云业务的增长潜力。 求培培qiupeipei@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190521090003请注意：求培培并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的活动 投资建议：Adobe是创意软件、PDF阅读及编辑软件及客户体验管理市场的龙头公司，基本盘业务稳健；同时随着Firefly等生成式AI产品面市，或将进一步打开其增长空间。预计收入将从FY23低谷逐步恢复至稳增轨道，盈利能力稳中有升。考虑到Adobe领先于行业的盈利能力及生成式AI的商业化前景，我们给予公司35.0倍PE，对应目标价630.1美元，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。 风险提示：1）宏观经济下行；2）并购整合进展不及预期；3）行业竞争加剧 Outperform ADOBE(ADBE.O)A Leading Content Software Company，GenAI as New Chapter Growth Driver US Stock (Initiate) TMT Dec. 23th, 2023 HighlightsAdobe, a leading software company, offers a comprehensive range of products that address the full content supply chain. The company is divided into three main sectors: Creative Cloud, ledby Photoshop with a 69% market share; Document Cloud, featuring Acrobat with a 97% marketshare; and Experience Cloud, extending Adobe's reach from content creation to marketing.Together, Creative Cloud and Document Cloud are key to Adobe's digital media business,contributing 73% to FY23 revenue, while Experience Cloud, representing digital experiences,adds 25%.Generative AI is transforming the creative software industry by simplifying tool usage and broadening its appeal beyond professionals. As the traditional market growth slows to 2.2%CAGR (2024-2028), generative AI is gaining traction, with 65% of amateur users finding itenhances digital content creation. The sector, driven by AI-generated content (AIGC), isexpected to grow rapidly, with a 25% CAGR forecast from 2022 to 2032. Adobe's Firefly,launched in March, has created over 4.5 billion images in eight months and is evolving with newupdates like image model 2.0, poised to delve into 3D and video domains. Pioneering anarchitecture that separates storage and computation, as well as a unique business model thatcharges based on consumption.Firefly, Adobe's AI-poweredtool,is geared to excel in the commercial sector,offering Analyst Jiajun Honghongjiajun@xyzq.com.cnSAC：S0190519080002SFC：BPL829 compliance and seamless workflow integration. Monetized since November 1, it's set togenerate substantial revenue through a 9% subscription price hike and usage-based fees. Itsadvantages are threefold: adherence to copyright laws, essential for business clients; integrationwith key Adobe products like Photoshop for advanced editing; and the use of Adobe's vastcreative design resources, technology, and customer base to stay ahead in the market.Adobe's Sensei GenAI, part of the Experience Cloud, is set to boost digital experience growth. Peipei Qiuqiupeipei@xyzq.com.cnSAC: S0190521090003Please note that Qiu Peipei is not a registeredlicenseeof the Hong Kong Securities andFutures Commission and may not engage inregulated activities in Hong Kong This advanced tool enhances CXM (Customer Experience Management), a more real-time,personalized evolution of traditional CRM. With the CXM market expected to grow at a 15%CAGR from 2022 to 2032, Sensei GenAI's role in refining marketing strategies is significant.Sinceits launch,it has introduced features like automated marketing content,customersegmentation, and content summarization, improving sales, marketing, and customer service.These generative AIcapabilities in CXM are likely to increase marketing effectiveness,customer engagement, and revenue per user, leveraging the full potential of the ExperienceCloud.Investment suggestion: Adobe, a key player in creative software, PDF editing, and CXM, boasts a strong core business. The introduction of generative AI products is likely to enhance its growthprospects. Anticipating a recovery from a low in FY23, Adobe is expected to see stable growthand increased pr