PVC周报：基本面平静，PVC周度价格偏强震荡

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 PVC基本面平静，且短期来看，基本面很难有显著改善。本周内蒙多地电石企业电力供应不足而降负荷运行，临时性产量下降。后续可关注内蒙古地区电力供应情况，若电力供应稳定，则预计产量会有所恢复，但整体仍处于相对低位，预计PVC成本支撑有所走强；出口端本周据悉表现一般，未有明显放量，市场预计台塑一月船期报价走平，或对需求并未过多乐观；短期国内宏观氛围转弱，或因经济数据未及预期商品回落。但中长期看，宏观宽松预期仍存，不宜过分看空。维持观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至12月14日，周度平均开工负荷率在70.97%，环比上周下降2.09个百分点。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com PVC产量及开工率：截至12月14日，整体开工负荷79.54%，环比下降0.73个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷78.9%，环比下降0.19个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷81.44%，环比下降2.35个百分点。 从业资格号：F03119179 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC检修：截至12月14日，停车及检修造成的损失量在4.473万吨，较上周下降0.021万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周略增。 PVC库存：截至12月14日，仓库总库存39.21万吨，较上一期减少0.38%，同比增加64.06% 需求：下游制品企业订单一般，对原料采购积极性不高。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨................................................................