2023年10月信用债市场运行报告：信用债发行量环比下降，中高等级产业债利差居历史低位

信用债发行量环比下降，中高等级产业债利差居历史低位 ——2023年10月信用债市场运行报告 摘要 发行方面，10月份信用债共发行8,881.13亿元，发行规模环比下降。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、中期票据和公司债，分别发行3,521.60亿元、2,565.49亿元和2,183.84亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有53只，涉及金额353.23亿元，较上月减少123.65亿元。 相关研究报告： 净融资方面，10月份信用债净融资为16.28亿元，净融资规模由负转正。10个重点行业中食品饮料行业贡献最多净融资，共实现净融资293.80亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为115.07亿元、357.15亿元和-380.32亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为-267.48亿元和283.76亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为118.79亿元和-102.51亿元。 1.《2023年6月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.7.14 2.《2023年5月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.6.133.《2023年4月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.5.124.《2023年3月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.4.175.《2023年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.3.156.《2023年1月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.2.14 到期压力方面，截至10月末，未来6个月将有47,035.81亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.77，较上月末持平。分行业看，10个重点行业信用债到期压力环比变动不大，其中公用事业、医药生物、房地产、商贸零售等行业信用债到期压力环比小幅增加。分企业性质看，国有企业、非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比持平。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债、非城投债到期压力均环比持平。 到期收益率方面，10月份，除3年期中低等级（AA级和AA-级）中短期票据到期收益率小幅下行外，其余期限与评级的中短期票据到期收益率小幅上行；各期限与评级的城投债到期收益率小幅上行。 信用利差方面，10月份各期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差涨跌不一，除1年期AA-级城投债信用利差收窄10.24BP外，其余信用利差变动幅度较小；除1年期AA-级产业债、3年期和5年期的AA-级城投债信用利差处于自2015年以来的历史较高水平外，其余期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差均处于历史中低水平。 展望未来，城投债方面，在地方政府债务化解背景下，城投债风险和估值将得到一定缓释和修复。产业债方面，债券市场服务实体经济水平有望提高，国家重点支持的科技创新、先进制造、绿色发展等领域直接融资比例有望提升，多数重点产业的债券净融出局面或将改善。 The issuance of credit bonds declined, and thecreditspreads of midand high-grade industrial bondswere athistoricallylowlevels——October2023China's corporate bonds market operation report Author: Cao Xiaojing,JianJiangpingE-mail:research@fecr.com.cn Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of888.113billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued inOctober,and the issuance scaledecreased month-on-month. Among them, the short-term financing bills,medium-term notes,andcorporate bondswith the largest issuance volume were352.160billion yuan,256.549billion yuan,and218.384billion yuanrespectively. There were53corporate bonds cancelled or postponed this month, involving an amount of35.323billion yuan,adecrease of12.365billion yuan from the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds inOctoberwas1.628billion yuan,whichturnedfromnegative topositive.Among the10key industries,thefood and beverageindustry contributed the most net financing,achieving a total net financing of29.380billion yuan.The net financing of AAA, AA+,and AA level entities was11.507billion yuan,35.715billion yuan,and-38.032billion yuan respectively. The net financing of state-owned enterprises andnon-state-owned enterprises was-26.748billion yuan and28.376billion yuan respectively. The net financing of LocalGovernment Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was11.879billion yuan and-10.251billion yuanrespectively. In terms ofmaturity pressure, as of the end ofOctober,4,703.581billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in thenext six months, and the maturity pressure migration coefficient was 0.77,which is the same asthe end of last month.Fromthe perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of10key industrieschanged littlemonth-on-month.Among them, thematurity pressure of public utilities, pharmaceutical and biological, real estate,tradeand retail industries increased slightlymonth-on-month.From the perspective of enterprise ownership,the maturity pressure of state-ownedcompanies’ bondsandnon-state-ownedcompanies’ bondsboth changed littlemonth-on-month.From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds,the maturity pressure ofLGFVbonds and the maturity pressure ofnon-LGFV bondsbothchangedlittlemonth-on-month. In terms of yield to maturity, in October,except forthe 3-yearmediumandlow-grade (AAgrade and AA-grade)shortandmedium-term billsdecreasingslightly, the yields to maturity of shortand medium-termbillswith other maturities and ratingsincreasedslightly; The yield to maturity ofLGFVbondswithallmaturities and ratingsincreasedslightly. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of industrial bonds andLGFVbonds of various maturities and ratings in Octoberchanged inconsistently. Except for the credit spread of 1-year AA-gradeLGFVbonds, which narrowed by 10.24BP, the restof the credit spreadchanges were small; except for the credit spreads of 1-year AA-grade industrial bonds, 3-year and 5-year AA-gradeLGFVbonds, whichwereat historically high levelssince2015, therest of thecredit spreadswereat historicallylow and medium levels. Looking forward, in terms ofLGFVbonds, under the background of local government debt resolution, the risks and valuationsofLGFVbonds will be mitigated and repairedto a certain extent. In terms of industrial bonds, the bond market's ability toserve the real economy is expected to improve. The proportion of direct financing in areas such as technological innovation,advanced manufacturing, and green development that are supported bypolicy prioritiesis expectedto increase. Theoutflowof bondfinancing in most key industries may improve. 目录 一、信用债市场运行......................................................................................................................................................2（一）一级市场.....................