请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2023年11月14日 、 信用债发行量环比下降，中高等级产业债利差居历史低位 ——2023年10月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：曹晓婧 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，10月份信用债共发行8,881.13亿元，发行规模环比下降。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、中期票据和公司债，分别发行3,521.60亿元、2,565.49亿元和2,183.84亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有53只，涉及金额353.23亿元，较上月减少123.65亿元。 净融资方面，10月份信用债净融资为16.28亿元，净融资规模由负转正。10个重点行业中食品饮料行业贡献最多净融资，共实现净融资293.80亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为115.07亿元、357.15亿元和-380.32亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为-267.48亿元和283.76亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为118.79亿元和-102.51亿元。 到期压力方面，截至10月末，未来6个月将有47,035.81亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.77，较上月末持平。分行业看，10个重点行业信用债到期压力环比变动不大，其中公用事业、医药生物、房地产、商贸零售等行业信用债到期压力环比小幅增加。分企业性质看，国有企业、非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比持平。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债、非城投债到期压力均环比持平。 到期收益率方面，10月份，除3年期中低等级（AA级和AA-级）中短期票据到期收益率小幅下行外，其余期限与评级的中短期票据到期收益率小幅上行；各期限与评级的城投债到期收益率小幅上行。 信用利差方面，10月份各期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差涨跌不一，除1年期AA-级城投债信用利差收窄10.24BP外，其余信用利差变动幅度较小；除1年期AA-级产业债、3年期和5年期的AA-级城投债信用利差处于自2015年以来的历史较高水平外，其余期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差均处于历史中低水平。 展望未来，城投债方面，在地方政府债务化解背景下，城投债风险和估值将得到一定缓释和修复。产业债方面，债券市场服务实体经济水平有望提高，国家重点支持的科技创新、先进制造、绿色发展等领域直接融资比例有望提升，多数重点产业的债券净融出局面或将改善。 相关研究报告： 1.《2023年6月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.7.14 2.《2023年5月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.6.13 3.《2023年4月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.5.12 4.《2023年3月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.4.17 5.《2023年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.3.15 6.《2023年1月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.2.14 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets Nov 14th, 2023 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of 888.113 billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued in October, and the issuance scale decreased month-on-month. Among them, the short-term financing bills, medium-term notes, and corporate bonds with the largest issuance volume were 352.160 billion yuan, 256.549 billion yuan, and 218.384 billion yuan respectively. There were 53 corporate bonds cancelled or postponed this month, involving an amount of 35.323 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.365 billion yuan from the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds in October was 1.628 billion yuan, which turned from negative to positive. Among the 10 key industries, the food and beverage industry contributed the most net financing, achieving a total net financing of 29.380 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA, AA+, and AA level entities was 11.507 billion yuan, 35.715 billion yuan, and -38.032 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises was -26.748 billion yuan and 28.376 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was 11.879 billion yuan and -10.251 billion yuan respectively. In terms of maturity pressure, as of the end of October, 4,703.581 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months, and the maturity pressure migration coefficient was 0.77, which is the same as the end of last month. From the perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of 10 key industries changed little month-on-month. Among them, the maturity pressure of public utilities, pharmaceutical and biological, real estate, trade and retail industries increased slightly month-on-month. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturity pressure of state-owned companies’ bonds and non-state-owned companies’ bonds both changed little month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturity pressure of LGFV bonds and the maturity pressure of non-LGFV bonds both changed little month-on-month. In terms of yield to maturity, in October, except for the 3-year medium and low-grade (AA grade and AA- grade) short and medium-term bills decreasing slightly, the yields to maturity of short and medium-term bills with other maturities and ratings increased slightly; The yield to maturity of LGFV bonds with all maturities and ratings increased slightly. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of industrial bonds and LGFV bonds of various maturities and ratings in October changed inconsistently. Except for the credit spread of 1-year AA- grade LGFV bonds, which narrowed by 10.24BP, the rest of the credit spread changes were small; except for the credit spreads of 1-year AA- grade industrial bonds, 3-year and 5-year The issuance of credit bonds declined, and the credit spreads of mid and high-grade industrial bonds were at historically low levels ——October 2023 China's corporate bonds market operation report Author: Cao Xiaojing, Jian Jiangping E-mail: research@fecr.com.cn