人民币汇率专题：“811汇改”八周年观察之人民币的韧性与底色
20238118811
811CHOW811CCK
20111290
Z0017101
1.“811.........................................................................1
1.1..............................................................................................11.2..............................................................................................4
2.:“811.........................................................7
2.1......................................................................................72.2....................................................................................122.2.1.Big Player Theory..................................................122.2.2.CHOW.................................................152.2.3.CCK.................................................19
3..........................................................................................................21
1.1.1:1957................................................11.1.1:20057212015811..............................................................................................................................21.1.2:811.................21.1.3:20142016PMI%..31.1.4:20142015%............................41.1.5:2015811..............................................................................................................................51.1.6:...................................51.1.7:2017............................................62.1.1:.........................................................72.1.2:20151211CFETSBISSDR.................................................................................................................................82.1.1:....................................................................92.1.3:.................................................................................102.1.2:CNY&CNH20152022%...............................................................................................................................102.1.4:.............................112.1.5:2015.............................................................................................................112.2.1:Hurts.........................................................................152.2.2:...........152.2.3:...........162.2.4:...........16
2.2.5:........162.2.6:Granger172.2.7:Chow.............................................................................172.2.8:........182.2.9:Granger...............................................................................................................................182.2.10:......182.2.11:Granger........................................................................................................................192.2.12:CHOW.........................202.2.13:..................................................................................20
1.811
20238118811811811
1.1.
1.
200572120158112006201240.520140.5%20151.5%811
2.
8112014
1.2.
811
20158 11
20158132017210-20201714
2.:811
2.1.
1.
20152005
1
201512 11201722415
2
20175++
20172‘’
=[/-1-]
=
2.
2017
2.2.
811:
2.2.1.Big Player Theory
811
1.
Koppl
Rescaled Range AnalysisHurstMandelbrot1972 1975MandelbrotWallis 1969Lo1991Hurst20057 2220238 1120158 1120058 2220158 1020158 1120238 11811
2.
2.2.12.2.2811811
HurstH0.50
