通货膨胀的需求与供给分解：跨国证据及其应用

This IMF Working Paper examines the decomposition of inflation into demand and supply factors using sectoral Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for 32 countries. The authors construct quarterly demand-driven and supply-driven inflation series and highlight global trends and country-specific differences in inflation decompositions during critical periods such as the great financial crisis of 2008 and the recent inflation surge since 2021. The authors find that supply-driven inflation is more reactive to oil shocks and supply chain pressures, while demand-driven inflation displays a more pronounced response to monetary policy shocks. The authors also suggest a steeper Phillips curve when inflation is demand-driven.

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