钢铁行业周报：刺激政策频出，预期需求向好

主要观点： 报告日期：2023-10-28 ⚫钢材市场：终端需求回升，去库存加速，市场稳定运行。 供应端：本周钢厂去库存进度加速，热轧、线材、螺纹产量有所提升，供给端相对稳定。 高频数据： 1）钢材价格：Myspic综合钢价指数+0.84%，其中长材、扁平板分别+0.88%、+0.78%。螺纹钢价格为3724元/吨，环比+3.16%；热轧板卷价格3890元/吨，环比+2.1%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为889.5元/吨，环比+6.02%；焦炭价格为2462.5元/吨，环比+6.3%；焦煤价格为1821元/吨，环比+6.99%。 执业证书号：S0010121070002邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为83.56(+0.06%)/312.86(+1.13%)/105.36(+1%)/143.57(-3.02%)/260.77(+1.76)万吨。开工率：高炉开工率82.49%，环比+0.15pct；电炉开工率62.18%，环比+0.64pct；高炉产能利用率90.73%，环比+0.11pct；电炉产能利用率54.88 %，环比+0.7pct。库存：总社库1025.55万吨，环比-4.63 %；总厂库451.56万吨，环比-2.34%；螺纹社库427.09万吨，环比-6.68%；螺纹厂库186.83万吨，环比-2.47%。 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏叠加碳达峰、碳中和背景，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块。国防军工、航空航天产业高景气度叠加广阔的国产替代空间，高温合金、特种不锈钢、超高强度钢等产品占据绝对优势地位，建议关注产品结构加速优化的华菱钢铁；不锈钢棒线材及云母提锂龙头永兴材料；冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性龙头标的甬金股份。 1.强需求预期尚未落地，静待节后库存去化2023-10-142.钢材需求偏弱，关注节后去库进度2023-10-083.钢铁去库存持续，供需逐步改善2023-09-25 ⚫风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1.1本周钢铁板块走势...............................................................................................................................................................41.2各钢铁板块走势...................................................................................................................................................................4 2.1个股周涨跌幅.......................................................................................................................................................................52.2公司公告...............................................................................................................................................................................5 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨幅（%）...................................................................................................................................................4图表2本周钢铁子板块涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................................................................4图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................5图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................5图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................5图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）.......................................................................................................................................................6图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.................................................................................................................................................6图表8板材价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................................................................6图表9铁矿石及两焦合约价（元/吨）........................................................................................................................................7图表10铁矿石期现价格（元/吨）..............................................................................................................................................7图表11焦炭期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表12焦煤期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表13炼焦煤库存：国内样本钢厂（110家）（万吨）............................................................................................................7图表14炼焦煤平均可用天数：国内样本钢厂(247家)（天）...................................................................................................7图表15焦炭库存：国内247家钢厂（万吨）............................................................................................................................8图表16港口焦炭库存（万吨）....................................................................................................................................................8图表17废钢价格（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................................................8图表18钢厂废钢库存（万吨）....................................................................................................................................................8图表19各品种钢材钢厂库存监控................................................................................................................................................8图表20钢材社会库存：合计（万吨）........................................................................................................................................9图表21钢材社会库存：分类（万吨）..............................................................................................................................