PTA季度策略报告：水涨船高，甘露难寻

2023年10月09日 水涨船高，甘露难寻 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 成本：宏观影响占据油价变动主导，PXN逐步回落。今年以来的几次油价下行皆伴随着区域性的银行危机，说明根本的原因还是利率上行带来的资金成本过高，所以四季度宏观消息会造成短期性的冲击来影响油价。今年的调油行情对PX价格的影响较去年减弱，预计明年市场对待调油将更加理性，日韩提前出口高辛烷值（甲苯、混二甲苯、纯苯等）至美国的“抢跑”行为出现的概率降低。PXN价差在四季度将逐步回落，预计保持在250-400美元/吨。PX-MX价差预计相对坚挺，保持在80-120美元/吨的区间。 相关报告 202306《消费追求性价比，细水长流未可知》202307《成本推涨的独角戏高潮已过》202309《终端需求正常回暖，成本推涨老生常谈》《站在成本的“肩膀”上眺望高点》《聚酯如期减产，利润传导不畅》 需求：聚酯产能虽有新增，终端订单是关键因素。聚酯在因亚运会降负生产后会较快恢复生产负荷，但长时间维持在93%以上的可能性较小，往年纺服旺季的拐点在10月中下旬，但今年旺季启动时间提前而且假期间的产销情况十分冷淡，节后需求或难以再度释放。虽然四季度聚酯还将有新产能投放，但PTA自身也有新产能投放，整体供需情况较为宽松。终端的织造订单情况是日后关注的重点，坯布价格的增速难以追赶原料价格的增速，导致产业链利润传导出现“上松下紧”的局面。 供应：加工费保持在100-300元/吨。逸盛海南二期250万吨/年装置预计投产，汉邦石化220万吨/年的老装置或将重启。PTA加工费在三季度最高仅在300元/吨附近徘徊，200元/吨附近是常态，在加工费持续亏损低迷的情况下没有引起负荷的大规模变动，预计四季度加工费相对弱势，在100-300元/吨的区间运行。 后市展望及策略推荐：原油的高位回调引发聚酯系商品的跟随下跌，但原油基本面偏紧、聚酯后续恢复负荷和PX进入长协谈判期都是潜在的利好，给PTA带来支撑。PX期货已上市，可跟据盘面加工费进行套利操作，逢低做多加工费。预计PX运行区间在8000-9300元/吨，PTA运行区间在5600-6300元/吨。 风险提示：原油价格大幅波动，终端消费更加疲软 目录 观点摘要：....................................................................................................................................................................... 1一、行情回顾：成本推动，水涨船高.............................................................................................................................. 5二、基本面梳理................................................................................................................................................................ 6（一）市场不相信减产落实到产油国延长减产计划............................................................................................................ 6（二）调油需求挤占PX生产原料，PXN居高不下........................................................................................................... 7（三）PTA加工费寒潮过境，400元/吨或成未来高点..................................................................................................... 10（四）PTA库存变化平稳，产量屡创新高......................................................................................................................... 12（五）下游聚酯高负荷运行，产成品保持去库.................................................................................................................. 13（六）终端利润被蚕食，议价处于弱势低位...................................................................................................................... 15四、后市展望及主要结论............................................................................................................................................... 17 图表目录 图1：PTA期货行情···································································································································································6图2：PTA基差走势···································································································································································6图3：国际原油期货价格走势····················································································································································6图4：PTA上游原料价格走势···················································································································································6图5：PXN价差走势···································································································································································7图6：PX-MX价差走势······························································································································································7图7：MX-石脑油价差走势························································································································································7图8：PX加工利润情况······························································································································································7图9：PX进口情况······································································································································································8图10：PX进口平均单价····························································································································································8图11：PX国内开工率································································································································································8图12：PX加工费········································································································································································8图13：PTA现货加工费情况···················································································································································10图14：PTA现货加工费月均对比············································································································································10图15：PTA加工利润情况······················································································································