中国科技行业：2Q23总结：行业已触底，但恢复缓慢

苏林, CFA(852) 3911 8023clintsu@ccbintl.com 中国科技行业 曲克(852) 3911 8257quke@ccbintl.com 2Q23总结：行业已触底，但恢复缓慢 ►智能手机和消费电子的恢复慢于预期 ►半导体行业下行周期持续；设备市场预计2023年下滑 ►生成式AI带来新机遇 ►首选：比亚迪电子，立讯精密 首选比亚迪电子、立讯精密。在经历了几个季度的消费疲软之后，科技板块持续表现不佳。在今年4月股价的强势之后，行业股价一直走弱，我们认为这反映了对消费情绪的恢复和地缘政治清 醒 的 担 忧。 我 们现 在看 好 行 业 龙 头 ， 比 如 立 讯 精 密(002475CH, O)，以及具有汽车和AR/VR潜力的长期成长型企业，如比亚迪电子(285HK,O)、舜宇光学(2382HK,O)。我们看好立讯精密作为苹果链领先的组件和组装解决方案供应商，并其持续增加市场份额，且在XR领域有进一步渗透。我们看好比亚迪电子在汽车电子和新兴智能产品的强劲势头。 （半导体制造设备）市场将在2023年下降约20%，随后在2024年增长约10%。 电信行业表现稳定。5G投资的放缓将电信运营商从高资本支出负担中释放出来，但网络部署仍然再继续，包括向5G独立组网（SA）的过渡，以及宽带渗透率提升。中国的电信运营商2023年资本支出计划大体持平去年，其中很大一部分将用在算力基础设施建设。生成式AI带动了光通信相关标的的上涨，同时对于服务器、光模块的需求也将提升。 风险：(1)消费复苏进一步放缓；(2)半导体行业供给过剩情况比预期严重；(3)美国出口管制进一步收紧。 智能手机供应链大多承压。大多数公司的收入和利润均出现下降，主要是由于行业持续的库存调整和需求疲软。由于TWS耳机和智能音箱需求疲软，歌尔股份本季度利润下滑73%。而由于智能手机销售持续疲软，舜宇光学和丘钛科技的净利润同比下降68%和88%。另一方面，立讯精密则得益于其在苹果供应链中的市场份额的提升，实现了稳健的增长。同样受益于市场份额的提升以及智能产品和汽车业务，比亚迪电子营收和净利润实现稳健增长。大多数供应链公司继续寻求进入汽车、物联网和VR/AR等新兴市场，以摆脱对智能手机市场的严重依赖。2023年第二季度全球智能手机出货量同比下降6.8%至2.68亿支（上半年：同比下降10.9%）。考虑到苹果9月份的苹果新品发布以及安卓手机需求低迷，苹果供应链业者的状况相比于安卓供应链表现更好。我们预计，在新产品推出和消费者信心恢复的帮助下，2023年下半年终端需求将有小幅复苏。对于全球智能手机市场，我们目前预测2023年出货量将下降约6%，随后2024年增长约4%。 半导体下行周期持续。产能过剩问题持续存在，影响了晶圆代工厂和IDM厂的业绩。与此同时，智能手机、个人电脑和消费电子产品的疲软继续影响着众多公司。大多数芯片设计公司和IDM公司都遭受了终端需求疲软的影响。智能手机需求疲软影响了包括韦尔股份、兆易创新、圣邦股份、士兰微和卓胜微在内的设计公司。MCU、模拟等领域的竞争持续升温，将持续影响相关企业的业绩。供应方面，受惠于28/40纳米及55/65纳米制程需求旺盛，中芯国际产能利用率小幅回升。华虹半导体仍然保持高产能利用率，这得益于功率器件占比较高，以及公司积极的调价策略。全球产能正变得供过于求，尤其是8英寸生产线。考虑到这一点，我们预计逻辑、内存、消费类模拟和MCU的产能利用率将在整个2023年下半年继续面临压力。此外，SiC（碳化硅）芯片和器件的产能仍然短缺。我们认为SiC将成为未来几年功率半导体厂商的主要竞争领域。设备供应商普遍在2023年二季度取得了不错的业绩。但考虑到产能过剩可能导致产能扩张放缓，设备供应商2023年可能面临订单量下滑。我们现在预测全球SPE Rating definitions: Outperform (O)–expected return > 10% over the next twelvemonthsNeutral (N)–expected return between-10% and 10% over the next twelve monthsUnderperform (U)–expected return <-10% over the next twelve months Analyst certification: The author(s) of this document, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his/her personalviews about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner; (ii) no part of anyof his/hercompensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this document; and(iii) he/she receives no insider information/non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which mayinfluence the recommendations madeby him. The author(s) of this document further confirm that (i) neither he/she nor his/herrespective associate(s) (as defined in the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and FuturesCommission issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) has dealt in/traded or will deal in /trade the securities coveredin this document in a manner contrary to his/her outstanding recommendation, or neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s)has dealt in or traded inthe securities covered in this document within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this document orwill so deal in or trade such securities within 3 business days after the date of issue of this document; (ii) neither he/shenor his/herrespective associate(s) serves as an officer of any of the companies covered in this document; and (iii) neither he/she nor his/herrespective associate(s) has any financial interests in the securities covered in this document. Disclaimers: This document is prepared by CCB International Securities Limited. CCB International Securities Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary ofCCB International (Holdings) Limited (“CCBIH”) and China Construction Bank Corporation (“CCB”). Information herein has beenobtained from sources believed to be reliable but CCB International Securities Limited, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively“CCBIS”) do not guarantee, represent and warrant (either express or implied) its completeness or accuracy or appropriatenessfor anypurpose or any person whatsoever. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this document and are subjectto change without notice. CCBIS seeks to update its research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent it from doing so.Besides certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals asappropriate according to the analyst's judgment. Forecasts, projections and valuations are inherently speculative in nature and maybe based on a number of contingencies. Readers should not regard the inclusion of any forecasts, projections and valuations in thisdocument as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of CCBIS that these forecasts, projections or valuations or their underlyingassumptions will be achieved. Investment involves risk and past performance is not indicative of future results. Informationin thisdocument is not intended to constitute or be construed as legal, financial, accounting, business, investment, tax or an