海外央行货币政策跟踪系列：美、欧、日、英央行的命运齿轮将如何转动

I 2023926 - 20111290 Z0017101 2023991211GDP11 CPI17- - I 2023926 i 1. ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 ...................................................................................... 1 1.2 ............................... 2 2. ............................................................................................... 6 2.1 ...................................................................................... 6 2.2 ....................................................................... 7 2.3 .......................................................................................................................... 8 3. ...................................................................................... 10 3.1 .................................................................................... 10 3.2 ................................................ 11 3.3 .......................................................... 12 4. ...................................................................................... 13 4.1 .................................................................................... 13 4.2 .......................................................... 14 4.3 .................................... 14 ................................................................................................................. 15 I 2023926 1 1. 9219FOMC5.25%5.5% 1.1 1.1.19FOMC 10100 Bloomberg CME126CME50%125126 1.1.2CME9FOMC CME 9FOMC 9FOMC I 2023926 2 1.1.3/ Bloomberg 1.2 . 992022320236202392411525525BP250BP475BP5.25-5.50%950600350MBS 1.2.15.25-5.50% iFinD 0.00001.00002.00003.00004.00005.00006.00002019-08-282020-08-282021-08-282022-08-282023-08-28:%9FOMC 9FOMC I 2023926 3 1.2.29 . 2023GDP61.0%2.1%2024GDP61.1%1.5%202364.1%3.8%4.5%4.1%2023PCE3.2%3.3%PCE3.9%3.7% 1.2.2 FED 9 . 95.6%5.5%5.75%1220235.5-5.75%75.25-5.5%202416%15.5%85%6202410042higher for longer2% I 2023926 4 1.2.369 FED 1.2.49higher for longer Bloomberg . 6 9 I 2023926 5 . 202395.6%911121211GDP11 I 2023926 6 2. 914254.5%4.75%4% 2.1 25105 2.1.1 10 Wallstreet OIS950%2024 2.1.2OIS/ Bloomberg I 2023926 7 2.2 1. 25 4%19994.5%4.75%2023922710450425BP450BP275BPAPP2024PEPPPEPP 2.2.14%4.5%4.75% iFinD 2. 2% 3. 202320242025GDP0.20.50.10.7%1.0%1.5%60.9%1.5%1.6%-1.00000.00001.00002.00003.00004.00005.00006.00002022-01-192022-02-192022-03-192022-04-192022-05-192022-06-192022-07-192022-08-192022-09-192022-10-192022-11-192022-12-192023-01-192023-02-192023-03-192023-04-192023-05-192023-06-192023-07-192023-08-192023-09-19%%% I 2023926 8 202320240.25.6%3.2%20250.12.1%2% 2.2.29 ECB 2.3 I 2023926 9 2.3.1 ECB I 2023926 10 3. 9215.25% 3.1 9253100 3.1.1 10100 Wallstreet Bloomberg OIS5.44% I 2023926 11 3.1.2OIS/ Bloomberg 3.2 1. 95.25%202112(2023924)14115BP725BP550BP175BP515MPC54425BP 3.2.15.25% iFinD 0.00001.00002.00003.00004.00005.00006.0000:% I 2023926 12 912800121000MPC1000900 2. 20230.30.1%80.4%2023MinutesGDP20252% 3.3 I 2023926 13 4. 9220.1%YCC 4.1 4.1.1 10 Wallstreet OIS12 I 2023926 14 4.1.2OIS/ Bloomberg 4.2 1. 7 2. 4.3 CPI17-- I 2023926 / 136 310008 400 8888 910 www.nanhua.net 603093