中国城市空气质量达标与碳排放达峰方法及案例研究Reaching Air Quality Standard And Carbon Peak In Chinese Cities: Methodology And Case Studies 清华大学 2023.5Tsinghua University May, 2023 关于报告在能源基金会的支持下，清华大学贺克斌院士和张强教授团队编制了《中国城市空气质量达标与碳排放达峰方法及案例研究》（以下简称“双达”报告），旨在基于自下而上的城市排放清单，建立经济 -能源 - 排放耦合动态响应分析方法以及不同类型城市空气质量达标与碳排放达峰协同分析框架，动态预测未来中国城市能源和排放的变化，综合评估产业、能源、交通、用地结构调整各措施带来的减排效益，探讨空气质量目标导向下城市“双达”的路径和策略，为国家和地方机构改革背景下“双达”在城市层面的实践提供研究参考和决策依据。ABOUT THE Report With the support of the Energy Foundation China, the team of Academician He Kebin and Professor Zhang Qiang of Tsinghua University compiled " Reaching Air Quality Standard And Carbon Peak In Chinese Cities: Methodology And Case Studies "(Hereinafter referred to as the “Dual Reach” report), aiming to build an economic-energy-emission coupled dynamic response analysis method as well as the collaborative analysis framework of achieving air quality standards and peaking carbon emission in different types of cities, dynamically predict future changes in energy and emissions in Chinese cities, and comprehensively evaluate the impact of various measures for industrial, energy, transportation, and land use structure adjustments. Furthermore, we also explore the pathways and strategies of "Dual Reach" under the guidance of air quality goals. This report provides the research reference and decision-making basis for the practice of " Dual Reach" at the city level under the background of national and local institutional reforms. 作者团队贺克斌 清华大学 / 中国工程院张 强 清华大学薄 宇 中国科学院大气物理研究所施沁人 清华大学宋子谦 清华大学深圳国际研究生院张露瑶 清华大学孙世达 清华大学徐晨曦 清华大学张改革 清华大学 关于作者贺克斌，中国工程院院士，清华大学环境学院教授、院长，清华大学碳中和研究院院长，中国工程院环境与轻纺工程学部主任，从事大气污染防治研究 30 多年，被认为是中国大气污染防治与公共健康领域顶尖专家之一。国家有关酸雨与 PM2.5污染防治的行动计划中均有很多重要研究成果，包括其主持建立的中国多尺度排放清单模型（MEIC）在线平台，确立的结合排放、观察与模拟的新污染源解析方法，以及其所开发的针对大气污染防治解决方案的动态评估模型。ABOUT THE AUTHORS Professor He Kebin, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering; professor and dean of the School of Environment, Tsinghua University; dean of the Carbon Neutral Research Institute of Tsinghua University; director of the Department of Environmental and Textile Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Prof. He has been conducting research on air pollution control for over 30 years, is widely regarded as one of China’s top experts in the fields of air quality and public health. He made significant achievements that have been implemented in national action plan on acid rain and PM2.5 pollution control, including the development of an online platform of Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the establishment of a new approach for source apportionment of integrating emission, observation, and simulation, and the development of a dynamic assessment model for air pollution control solutions.致谢本研究由清华大学统筹撰写，由能源基金会提供资金支持。ACKNOWLEDGEMENTThis report is a product of Tsinghua University and is funded by Energy Foundation China. 1 研究背景和目标 .........................................................................................11.1 研究背景 .........................................................................................................................................21.1.1 中国空气质量达标与碳排放达峰所面临的挑战 ...................................................................21.1.2 城市空气质量达标及碳排放达峰协同路径的意义 ................................................................31.2 研究目标 .........................................................................................................................................32 城市大气污染物与碳排放清单编制及措施评估方法 ................................................42.1 城市大气污染物及二氧化碳排放清单编制方法................................................................................52.2 措施评估方法 ..................................................................................................................................82.2.1 措施分类 .............................................................................................................................82.2.2 措施评估 ...........................................................................................................................193 中国城市碳达峰与空气质量改善协同效益评估.........................................213.1 已有研究进展 ................................................................................................................................223.2 城市空气质量达标与碳排放达峰协同分析方法 .............................................................................233.2.1 城市类型划分 ....................................................................................................................233.2.2 中国城市尺度排放预测模型建立 .......................................................................................253.2.3 情景设计方法 ....................................................................................................................293.3 全国城市碳达峰与空气质量改善协同效益评估 .............................................................................303.3.1 碳达峰目标对城市空气质量改善的协同作用 .....................................................................303.3.2 协同目标对全国城市碳达峰与空气质量改善的推动作用 ............