典型城市空气质量达标及碳排放达峰路径研究报告 2 目录 第一章 研究背景 ···································································································· 1 第二章 研究方法 ···································································································· 3 2.1 城市排放清单编制方法 ··················································································· 3 2.2 城市空气质量达标与碳排放达峰协同分析框架构建 ··············································· 6 第三章 郑州市实现“双达”路径分析 ······································································ 10 3.1 郑州市城市概况 ······························································································ 10 3.2 经济与能源发展预测 ························································································ 10 3.3 重点减排任务与措施 ························································································ 11 3.4 减排潜力分析 ································································································· 12 3.5 空气质量达标和碳达峰分析 ·············································································· 13 第四章 石家庄市实现“双达”路径分析 ······································································ 16 4.1 石家庄市城市概况 ··························································································· 16 4.2 经济与能源发展预测 ························································································ 16 4.3 重点减排任务与措施 ························································································ 17 4.4 减排潜力分析 ································································································· 18 4.5 空气质量达标和碳达峰分析 ·············································································· 20 第五章 湖州市实现“双达”路径分析 ········································································· 22 5.1 湖州市城市概况 ························································································· 22 5.2 经济与能源发展预测 ·················································································· 22 2017年1月25日 3 目 录 5.3 重点减排任务与措施 ·················································································· 23 5.4 减排潜力分析 ··························································································· 24 5.5 空气质量达标和碳达峰分析 ········································································· 25 第六章 结论 ···································································································· 28 6.1 “双达”路径协同分析方法总结 ·································································· 28 6.2 案例城市分析的结论与启示 ······································································ 29 参考文献 ·········································································································· 35 典型城市空气质量达标及碳排放达峰路径研究报告 摘要 在经济发展和快速城市化背景下，我国面临着来自空气污染和气候变化问题的双重挑战。城市是政策落地实施的基本单元，也是减排的关键区域。相比于空气质量政策，低碳政策在城市一级的机制尚不完善，因此目前我国城市尺度协同减排主要由空气质量目标驱动。我国已有部分城市开展了空气质量达标规划研究或低碳试点工作，但开展空气质量达标和碳排放达峰协同“双达”研究的城市仍然很少。本研究建立了基于统一源分类体系与源排放表征技术方法的城市尺度温室气体和大气污染物排放的清单编制方法，并从清单出发构建了空气质量达标与碳排放达峰协同分析框架。然后，以郑州、石家庄、湖州为典型案例，探讨了空气质量目标导向下城市“双达”的路径和策略，为国家和地方机构改革背景下“双达”在城市层面的实践提供研究参考和决策依据。 研究结果表明，为实现“双达”目标，除末端控制措施外，必须进行能源结构、产业结构和运输结构的深度调整。空气质量政策下，工业部门（包括电力、热力生产）是碳减排协同效益最大的部门，电力结构调整、落后产能淘汰和燃料清洁化替代等政策具有协同效益，是各城市应当优先考虑的措施。城市民用和交通部门的未来能源需求在较长一段时间内难以达峰，未来工业部门减排潜力将逐渐减小，城市应当进一步关注产业结构转型，以及民用、交通部门能源需求总量控制和燃料结构低碳化转型，否则仍然存在碳排放再度回弹的风险。外购电、机动车电动化等政策是否存在协同减排效益很大程度上取决于电力结构，凸显了在终端电气化进程下电力清洁生产的重要性。 本研究是探索城市“双达”路径的一次积极尝试，也总结了案例城市的减排经验、给出了相应的政策建议。受限于案例城市的数量，一些问题的规律尚不明确，有待于未来在更多的典型城市开展研究、进行深入讨论。 2017年1月25日 1 第一章 研究背景 第一章 研究背景 在经济发展和快速城市化背景下，我国面临着来自空气污染和气候变化问题的双重挑战。近年来，以PM2.5为特征的大气复合污染给我国人民身体健康和社会经济发展造成了不利影响。2013年9月，国务院发布实施《大气污染防治行动计划》，推动我国大气污染防治进入新阶段。2018年，京津冀、长三角和珠三角三个重点区域的PM2.5平均浓度分别比2013年下降了48%、39%和32%，成效显著。然而， 2018年全国338个地级及以上城市中仅121个城市环境空气质量达标，总体空气污染形势不容乐观。气候变化方面，作为负责任的大国，中国向《联合国气候变化框架公约》提交《强化应对气候变化行动——中国国家自主贡献》文件，确定了到2030年的自主贡献目标，包括2030年左右二氧化碳排放达到峰值并争取尽早达峰、单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%～65%。研究显示2017-2019年中国碳排放出现反弹，终止了中国碳排放2013-2016年平稳下降的趋势[1]。未来一段时间我国能源需求总量还会持续增长，能源转型面对着较大压力，实现我国2030年左右碳排放达峰的目标仍面临着挑战。 我国以化石燃料为主的一次能源结构决定了我国温室气体和大气污染物排放具有高度同源性。控制策略方面，常见的除末端控制外的大部分减排策略都能够同时减排大气污染物与二氧化碳，如煤炭总量管控、节能改造和非化石能源替代等，其本质是减少化石燃料尤其是煤炭的燃烧量。因此，现有的空气质量改善政策实际具有碳协同减排效益。经过新一轮的机构改革，目前应对大气污染和气候变化职能均隶属生态环境部管理，如何实现温室气体和大气污染物协同治理是管理部门面临的新课题。城市是政策落地实施的基本单元，是我国未来实现空气质量目标和碳达峰目标的关键区域。相比仍然主要停留在宏观层面的应对气候变化目标，城市空气质量管理的体系更为完善、目标更为明确。《大气污染防治法》明确要求空气质量未达标城市应当依法编制大气环境质量限期达标规划。目前还有2/3的城市空气质量未达标，2030年前我国城市减排路径仍将以空气质量目标为主导。目前，广州、大连、 典型城市空气质量达标及碳排放达峰路径研究报告 2 成都等部分城市已经开展空气质量达标规划研究，北京、武汉等城市提出了碳排放达峰目标，但开展空气质量达标和碳排放达峰协同“双达”研究的城市仍然很少。我国城市发展水平不一、经济结构差异较大，呈现出多元化的特点。如何根据城市特点制订协同减排路径，对未来实现协同减排具有关键意义。 本研究的主要目标包括： （1）建立基于统一源分类体系与源排放表征技术方法的城市尺度温室气体和大气污染物排放的清单编制方法； （2）建立经济-能源-排放耦合动态响应分析方法以及城市空气质量达标与碳排放达峰协同分析框架； （3）以郑州、石家庄和湖州为典型案例城市，进行能源、经济发展预测，制定符合其城市发展的城市协同“双达”路径，综合评估产业、能源、交通、用地结构调整各措施带来的减排效益。 （4）基于典型城市的实践案例，探讨空气质量目标导向下城市