农业转型建设可持续的未来英文版

June 2023The agricultural transition: Building a sustainable futureSustainable farming is necessary for decarbonization. But to get the world to net zero, the agriculture sector must take action along the entire value chain. Contents2Executive summary7Momentum for decarbonization in agriculture10A revised perspective on 1.5 ̊ pathways27Achieving progress at scale21Changing how we farm31Conclusion33Appendix12Tackling food wasteAddressing land use with nature-based solutionsShifting what we eatInnovating to drive further progressMeasures to effect change13141619 Executive summaryIn 2020, we released our report Agriculture and climate change, which identified key actions the agricultural industry could take to support decarbonization.1 For this report, our research has focused on how decarbonization measures have evolved, as well as on the key barriers to their adoption and the actions industry players and investors can take to support their uptake. At the same time, conversations about sustainable transitions have increasingly focused on agriculture’s effects on nature and society beyond climate change. For example, agricultural land covers half of all habitable land and is responsible for 70 percent of freshwater with drawals.2 In addition, food systems are the primary driver of biodiversity loss around the world, and these systems have growing effects on biosphere integrity, human health, and food access.3 While climate change remains the focus of this report, decarbonization and the actions to achieve it cannot be considered separately from their broader impacts on nature and society. Trade-offs and other benefits associated with decarbonization actions are highlighted throughout the report.© Jose A. Bernat Bacete/Getty Images2The agricultural transition: Building a sustainable future Exhibit E1Web <2023><Sustainability in Ag report>Exhibit <1> of <9>Levers to abate forecast agriculture production and LULUCF¹ emissions in 2050, GtCO₂e² (GWP AR6 100Y³)Note: In sum, levers achieve emissions reductions slightly beyond 2050 compliance with the 1.5° pathway, leaving room to account for overlap in reductions potential and failure to meet targets.1Land use, land-use change, and forestry.2Metric gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent.3Global warming potential, as outlined in the 100-year scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report.Action in a handful of areas can allow global food and agriculture systems to decarbonize on track with a 1.5 ̊ pathway.McKinsey & CompanyDiet shift away from animalproteinSustainable food production2.31.26.73.4Uncertain14.4Forecast “do nothing”emissionsReduction in food loss andfood wasteLand conservation andnatural carbon sinksNext-horizon technologiesEmissions compliant with1.5° scenarioExpansion and adoption of practices and technologies that can reduce emissions while meeting food demandsEmissions reductions from switching to alternative protein sources, away from ruminants, while meeting caloric needsFuture technology to support accelerated decarbonization and ožset shortfallsActions to reduce food loss and food waste throughout the value chainEžorts to conserve existing land resources (eg, forests) and expand nature-based solutions (eg, peatland restoration)Remaining emissions in compliance with 1.5° pathway3.1Achieving a 1.5 ̊ pathway will require actions that extend beyond the farm throughout the value chain. Chief among these actions are reducing food loss and waste, adopting dietary shifts, and adapting how we use arable land, all of which are critical to decarbonization and will help the industry meet global food needs while maintaining the livelihoods of farmers (Exhibit E1). Tackling food waste. Approximately 30 percent of the world’s food is lost or wasted every year.4 Food loss and waste not only contribute an estimated 8 to 10 percent of global anthropogenic emissions5 but also drive food insecurity and overproduction, the latter of which contributes in turn to nature degradation. It is estimated that food waste could be reduced by approximately 23 percent by 2050, which would account for approximately 0.7 metric gigatons (Gt) of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e).6 To achieve these reductions, we will need to better connect supply chains, improve preservation, adapt purchasing habits, and make more productive use of food loss or waste, creating opportunities for industrials across the value chain.Shifting what we eat. Dietary shifts are already opening new markets and creating value for farmers and industrials. Producers and consumers can avoid releasing a substantial amount 3The agricultural transition: Building a sustainable future of emissions by turning to alternative protein sources, including plant-based products and precision-fermented and cellular products that are nearly identical to animal protein products. For example, classic plant-based options emit 12 percent of the total greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted by cattle and have a less