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螺纹钢市场周报:粗钢平控&表观续增,螺纹钢震荡偏强

2023-08-25蔡跃辉瑞达期货L***
螺纹钢市场周报:粗钢平控&表观续增,螺纹钢震荡偏强

粗钢平控&表观续增,螺纹钢震荡偏强「2023.08.25」作者:蔡跃辉期货投资咨询证号:Z0013101螺纹钢市场周报联系电话:0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况4、期权市场 3来源:瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价区间宽幅整理。8月21日据中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布数据,1年期LPR为3.45%,5年期以上LPR为4.2%,前者较上月下调10个基点,后者则与上月持平,8月LPR非对称下调一度支撑黑色系期价走高。但随着钢厂利润收缩,钢厂向上挤压炉料价格,焦炭首轮降价出现,并拖累螺纹钢期价。后市展望:供应端,本期螺纹钢周度产量继续小幅下滑,多地粗钢平控要求逐步落地,螺纹钢产量或稳中有降;需求端,螺纹钢社会库存与厂内库存均出现下滑,表观消费量上升;最后,国内宏观面延续稳增长,扩内需利好政策,只是粗钢平控将减少炉料需求,或抑制钢价上行空间。操作上建议,RB2310合约于3650-3850区间低买高抛,止损参考50元/吨。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格区间整理本周,RB2310合约区间整理。本周,RB2310合约走势弱于RB2401合约,25日价差为-28元/吨,周环比-10元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院0500000100000015000002000000250000032003400360038004000420044002022-10-182022-10-272022-11-072022-11-162022-11-252022-12-062022-12-152022-12-262023-01-052023-01-162023-02-012023-02-102023-02-212023-03-022023-03-132023-03-222023-03-312023-04-122023-04-212023-05-052023-05-162023-05-252023-06-052023-06-142023-06-272023-07-062023-07-172023-07-262023-08-042023-08-152023-08-24RB2310收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e-300-200-10001002003002022-01-202022-02-152022-03-042022-03-232022-04-132022-05-052022-05-242022-06-132022-06-302022-07-192022-08-052022-08-242022-09-132022-09-302022-10-262022-11-142022-12-012022-12-202023-01-092023-02-022023-02-212023-03-102023-03-292023-04-182023-05-102023-05-292023-06-152023-07-062023-07-252023-08-11RB2310-RB2401合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单增加,前20名持仓净空减少8月25日,上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为125227吨,周环比+23401吨。8月25日,螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空84094张,较上一周减少53737张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-012021-03-292021-04-262021-05-242021-06-212021-07-192021-08-162021-09-132021-10-112021-11-082021-12-062022-01-032022-01-312022-02-282022-03-282022-04-252022-05-232022-06-202022-07-182022-08-152022-09-122022-10-102022-11-072022-12-052023-01-022023-01-302023-02-272023-03-272023-04-242023-05-222023-06-192023-07-172023-08-14螺纹钢仓单日报-200000-150000-100000-500000500001000001500001000000120000014000001600000180000020000002200000240000026000002021-12-092022-01-062022-02-092022-03-082022-04-062022-05-062022-06-022022-06-302022-07-272022-08-232022-09-202022-10-242022-11-182022-12-152023-01-122023-02-152023-03-142023-04-112023-05-112023-06-072023-07-062023-08-02螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓(右)多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格持平,基差走弱8月25日,上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400(理计)现货报价为3730元/吨,周环比+0元/吨;全国均价为3781元/吨,周环比+4元/吨。本周,螺纹钢现货价格弱于期货,25日期现基差为14元/吨,周环比-16元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院3300380043004800530058002022-01-042022-01-202022-02-102022-02-282022-03-162022-04-012022-04-202022-05-092022-05-252022-06-132022-06-292022-07-152022-08-022022-08-182022-09-052022-09-222022-10-132022-10-312022-11-162022-12-022022-12-202023-01-062023-01-292023-02-142023-03-022023-03-202023-04-062023-04-232023-05-112023-05-292023-06-142023-07-032023-07-192023-08-042023-08-22全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120014003300380043004800530058002021-11-012021-11-192021-12-092021-12-292022-01-192022-02-152022-03-072022-03-252022-04-182022-05-112022-05-312022-06-212022-07-112022-07-292022-08-182022-09-072022-09-282022-10-252022-11-142022-12-022022-12-222023-01-122023-02-082023-02-282023-03-202023-04-102023-04-282023-05-232023-06-122023-07-042023-07-242023-08-11螺纹钢10月合约期现基差10月基差期货收盘价(10月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调,焦炭现货价格下调8月25日,青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报920元/干吨,周环比+29元/干吨。8月25日,天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2240元/吨,周环比-100元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-082021-03-192021-04-232021-06-012021-07-062021-08-092021-09-102021-10-252021-11-262021-12-302022-02-102022-03-162022-04-212022-05-302022-07-042022-08-052022-09-082022-10-202022-11-232022-12-272023-02-072023-03-132023-04-172023-05-242023-06-292023-08-02青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏(62%Fe)(右)元/干吨美元/吨18002300280033003800430048002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-272023-05-312023-06-302023-07-31天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加,港口库存减少据Mysteel统计,本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2667.6万吨,环比增加88.5万吨。8月25日,Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12032.48,环比降18.51;日均疏港量328.19增1.47。分量方面,澳矿5294.27降98.48,巴西矿4551.04增132.18;贸易矿7456.93降23.55。(单位:万吨)图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源:wind 瑞达期货研究院250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-01-042019-03-152019-05-172019-07-192019-09-202019-11-292020-02-072020-04-102020-06-122020-08-142020-10-162020-12-182021-02-262021-04-302021-07-022021-09-032021-11-052022-01-072022-03-112022-05-132022-07-222022-09-232022-11-252023-01-272023-03-312023-06-022023-08-04铁矿石港口库存与矿价库存量(左)澳洲麦克粉61%(右)单位:万吨单位:元-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024