中国餐饮行业：如何在最内卷的消费赛道挑选胜者？

中国餐饮行业：如何在最内卷的消费赛道挑选胜者？ 首次覆盖 超配 中国有句古话：民以食为天。可见餐饮在消费者的日常生活中扮演着重要的角色。即使在整体经济趋势偏弱的大环境下，消费者对餐饮的市场需求依然非常高。然而，由于较低的行业准入门槛，每年都有数不清的新玩家涌入餐饮赛道，使餐饮行业成为消费领域竞争最激烈的赛道之一。我们希望通过这篇报告来分析餐饮玩家如何在激烈的竞争环境中保持旺盛的竞争优势，从而实现可持续的盈利。首次覆盖百胜中国（YUMC.US/9987.HK）、九毛九（9922.HK）、特海国际（9658.HK）并给予“买入”评级；首次覆盖海底捞（6862.HK）并给予“持有”评级。 林闻嘉（消费分析师/研究部主管）richard_lin@spdbi.com(852) 2808 6433 桑若楠，CFA（消费助理分析师）serena_sang@spdbi.com(852)2808 6439 欢迎关注浦银国际研究 目录 中国餐饮行业：如何在最内卷的消费赛道挑选胜者？…………………………………………………………………….3前言...............................................................................................................................................................4中国餐饮行业的前世、今生与未来...........................................................................................................5餐饮行业竞争格局（Porter’s Five Forces） ................................................................................................9餐饮行业制胜的关键是什么？.................................................................................................................19估值与目标价.............................................................................................................................................31风险提示.....................................................................................................................................................32百胜中国（YUMC.US/9987.HK）：兼具确定性与成长性的中国餐饮领军者………………………………………33四大核心竞争力带来强大的业绩确定性.................................................................................................35未来成长性依然不可小觑.........................................................................................................................45盈利预测.....................................................................................................................................................57目标价与估值.............................................................................................................................................62风险提示.....................................................................................................................................................62SPDBI乐观与悲观情景假设.......................................................................................................................65公司背景.....................................................................................................................................................67海底捞（6862.HK）：短期盈利提升趋势显著，长期扩张前景令人担忧…………………………………………75中国规模最大的连锁火锅玩家.................................................................................................................77行业竞争加剧恐减弱品牌核心竞争力.....................................................................................................79店铺网络扩张空间受限.............................................................................................................................85盈利能力的恢复与提升是短期最大的亮点.............................................................................................90盈利预测.....................................................................................................................................................94目标价与估值.............................................................................................................................................98风险提示.....................................................................................................................................................98SPDBI乐观与悲观情景假设........................................................................................................................100公司背景....................................................................................................................................................101九毛九（9922.HK）：成长空间可观，运营能力卓越……………………………………………………………………..108太二依然年轻，成长空间较大...............................................................................................................110多品牌布局带来更大增长潜力...............................................................................................................115灵活高效的运营模式...............................................................................................................................119盈利预测...................................................................................................................................................123目标价与估值...........................................................................................................................................127风险提示...................................................................................................................................................127SPDBI乐观与悲观情景假设........................................................................................................................129公司背景....................................................................................................................................................130特海国际（9658.HK）：面向海外华人，市场前景广阔………………………………………………………………….137盈利预测.....................................................................