2023年6月信用债市场运行报告：一级市场发行规模回升，城投信用利差普遍走阔

一级市场发行规模回升，城投信用利差普遍走阔 ——2023年6月信用债市场运行报告 摘要 发行方面，6月份信用债共发行11,981.22亿元，发行规模环比增加。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行4,332.30亿元、4,203.39亿元和2,435.92亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有77只，涉及金额520.81亿元，较上月增加377.11亿元。 相关研究报告： 净融资方面，6月份信用债净融资为1,708.97亿元，净融资规模由负转正。10个重点行业中建筑装饰行业贡献最多净融资，共实现净融资1,966.27亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为412.41亿元、1,167.94亿元和306.50亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为2,544.94亿元和-835.97亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为1,868.44亿元和-159.47亿元。 1.《2023年5月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.6.13 2.《2023年4月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.5.123.《2023年3月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.4.174.《2023年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.3.155.《2023年1月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.2.14 到期压力方面，截至6月末，未来6个月将有46,268.05亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.71，较上月末下降0.07。分行业看，10个重点行业信用债到期压力均环比下降。分企业性质看，国有企业、非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比下降。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债、非城投债到期压力均环比下降。 到期收益率方面，6月份，中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率涨跌不一。其中，除3年期中高等级（AAA级和AA+级）城投债到期收益率小幅下行外，其余期限评级的城投债到期收益率均上行。 信用利差方面，6月份1年期和5年期产业债信用利差整体走阔，走阔幅度在0.89BP至13.54BP之间；1年期AA-级城投债信用利差继续收窄，其余期限评级城投债信用利差均走阔；中长期限低等级城投债信用利差仍处于自2015年以来的历史高位。 6月下旬，中国证监会发布《关于深化债券注册制改革的指导意见》，明确将强化以偿债能力为重点的信息披露要求、强化投资者保护、对发行人实施分类监管、压实中介机构责任、畅通违约债券出清渠道等内容。债券注册制改革有望优化债市融资环境，提振投资者信心和信用债二级市场活力。展望未来，各地有经济稳增长压力，政府或牵头扩大有效投资，预计短期内国有企业、城投企业的信用债发行规模会稳中有增。地产债方面，在“金融16条”延期和销售市场暂未企稳的背景下房地产业或将继续出清风险，需关注“红档”房企相关负面舆情。 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of1,198.122billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued inJune,and the issuance scaleincreased month-on-month. Among them, the short-termfinancing bills, corporate bonds,and medium-term notes with the largest issuance volume were433.230billion yuan,420.339billion yuan,and243.592billion yuanrespectively. There were77corporate bonds cancelled or postponed this month, involving an amount of52.081billion yuan,an increase of 37.711 billion yuan from the previous month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds inJunewas170.897billion yuan,whichturnedpositive.Among the10key industries,the building decoration industry contributed the most net financing, achieving a totalnet financing of 192.627 billion yuan.The net financing of AAA, AA+,and AA level entities was41.241billion yuan,116.794billion yuan,and30.650billion yuan respectively. The net financing of state-owned enterprises and non-state-ownedenterprises was254.494billion yuan and-83.597billion yuan respectively. The net financing of Local Government FinancingVehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was186.844billion yuan and-15.947billion yuan respectively. In terms ofmaturity pressure, as of the end ofJune,4,626.805billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the nextsix months, and the maturity pressure migrationcoefficient was 0.71,down 0.07 from the end of last month.From theperspective of industries, the maturity pressure of10key industriesdecreased month-on-month.From the perspective ofenterprise ownership,the maturity pressure of state-ownedcompanies’ bondsand non-state-ownedcompanies’ bondsbothdecreased month-on-month.From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds,the maturity pressure ofLGFVbonds and the maturity pressure ofnon-LGFV bondsbothdecreasedmonth-on-month. In terms ofyield to maturity,the yield to maturity of short-and medium-term bills andLGFVbonds in the secondary marketfluctuated. Among them, in addition to theyields to maturity ofthree-year high-grade (AAA grade and AA+ grade)LGFVbondsdecreasingslightly,theyields to maturity of LGFVbondswith other maturities and ratingsincreased. In terms of credit spreads,inJune,thecredit spreads of1-year and 5-year industrial bondswidened overall, ranging from0.89BP to 13.54BP.The credit spreadsof 1-yearAA-gradeLGFVbonds continued to narrow, and the credit spreadsofLGFVbondswith other maturities and ratingswidened.The credit spread of medium-and long-term low-gradeLGFV bondswerestill at historicallyhighlevelssince 2015. In late June, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Guidance on Deepening theReformof the BondRegistration System", which clearly will strengthen the information disclosure requirements focusing on solvency, strengthen investor protection, implement classified supervision of issuers, consolidate the responsibilities of intermediaries,and smooththe liquidation channels of defaulted bonds. The reform of the bond registration system is expected to optimize the financingenvironment of the bond marketandboost investor confidence and the vitality of the corporatebond secondary market.Looking forward, local governments have stable economic growth pressure, and theymay take the lead in expanding effectiveinvestment. It is expected that the scale of credit bond issuance by state-owned enterprises andLGFVs will steadily increasein the short term. In terms of real estatebonds, under the background of the "16financialpolicies" extension and thefailuretostabilizethe sales market, the real estate industry may continue to clear risks, and it is necessary to pay attention to thenegative public opinion related to thereal estateenterprisesthat touchthethree red lines. 目录 一、信用债市场运行................................................