2021年6月信用债市场运行报告：一级市场发行规模回升，AA级煤炭债利差高位运行

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年7月15日 一级市场发行规模回升，AA级煤炭债利差高位运行 ——2021年6月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 卢胜娇 李云霞 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，6月信用债发行规模大幅回升，共发行10164.93亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额大幅增加至397.94亿元。 净融资方面，6月份信用债净融资转正，共实现净融资3118.29亿元；净融资的增加主要集中于建筑装饰行业，实现净融资1808.50亿元；AA+级主体信用债净融资最多，实现净融资1418.11亿元（占比43.12%）；城投企业净融资占所有信用债净融资比重高达72.64%，城投债对6月份信用债净融资的贡献非常大。 到期压力方面，未来6个月将有42579.48亿元信用债到期，整体到期压力与之前相比进一步下行。未来6个月信用债到期压力将继续呈现下降趋势，分行业来看，房地产、交通运输、医药生物行业到期压力下降显著，计算机和非银金融行业到期压力上行；民营企业债券到期压力减小相对更为显著；城投债到期压力下降幅度较小，非城投企业所发行债券到期压力下降相对更为明显。 到期收益率方面，中短期票据和城投债到期收益率总体呈现先升后降的运行趋势，总体变动幅度不大。 信用利差方面，各期限低等级（AA级）煤炭行业产业债信用利差处于历史高位，且短期限信用利差呈边际扩大趋势；各期限低等级（AA级）钢铁行业信用利差均呈边际扩大趋势，短期限信用利差已经攀升至历史极高水平；弱资质短期限城投债信用利差处于历史高位，且呈边际走阔态势。 展望未来，公司债券发行上市审核趋严、城投公司融资政策收紧等因素对信用债发行形成的影响仍将持续一段时间。同时，虽然地方政府债出现单月集中发行模式的可能性较小，但下半年地方债发行仍将继续发力，利率债供给压力的上升可能在下半年对信用债发行持续造成影响；信用债收益率或将受具体行业或领域基本面、央行“降准”、生产性物价未来走势以及利率债收益率走势等因素影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年5月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.6.15 2.《2021年5月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.6.15 3.《2021年4月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.5.14 4.《2021年4月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.5.13 5.《2021年3月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.4.15 6.《2021年3月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.4.14 7.《2021年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.3.13 8.《2021年2月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.3.12 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets July 15th, 2021 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, the scale of China's corporate bond issuances rose significantly in June, which was about 1.016 trillion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuances rose to 39.794 billion yuan in June. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuances turned to positive in June, which was 311.829 billion yuan. The increase of net financing concentrated in construction industry, which was 180.850 billion yuan. The increase in net financing of AA plus-rated corporate bonds was particularly significant, which was 141.811 billion yuan and accounted for 43.12% of the increase in total net financing of corporate bonds in June. The contribution of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds to the net financing of corporate bonds was very large in June, which accounted for 72.64% of entire corporate bonds net financing. In terms of maturing pressure, 4257.948 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months. The overall maturity pressure of corporate bond market dropped apparently compared with that of the previous 6 months. Bond maturity pressures in the real estate, transportation, and pharmaceutical and biological industries have all declined significantly, while bond maturity pressures in the computer and non-bank financial industries have increased. The maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers decreased more obviously. The maturing pressure of LGFV bonds decreased slightly, while that of non-LGFV bonds decreased more significantly. In terms of yield to maturity, the yields of short and medium-term notes and LGFV bonds showed a trend from rise to decline, with little overall change. In terms of credit spread, the credit spreads of AA rated coal industry bonds were at a historical high, while the credit spreads of short-term AA-rated coal industry bonds showed marginal broadening trend. The credit spreads of AA-rated steel industry bonds showed marginal broadening trend, while the credit spreads of short-term AA-rated steel industry bonds were at historical high. The credit spreads of AA minus rated short-term LGFV bonds were at historical high with marginal broadening trend. In the future, the impact of policy tightening on corporate bond primary market may continue in the short term. Although the appearance of single month centralized local government bond issuance is less likely, the issuances of local government bonds are expected to increase in the second half of 2021. The rising supply pressure of government bonds may continue to affect the issuances of corporate bonds in the second half of the year. The trend of corporate bond yields will also be affected Issuance scale in primary market increases, AA rated coal industry bond spreads run at a high level ——June 2021 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, Lu Shengjiao, Li Yunxia E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets July 15th, 2021 by fundamentals of various industries or fields, the reduction of depository reserve ratio, the future trends in producer prices, and the trend of government bond yields. 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年7月15日 目录 一、信用债市场运行 ..........