螺纹钢市场周报：表观需求继续提升，螺纹钢先抑后扬

表观需求继续提升，螺纹钢先抑后扬「2023.03.03」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638螺纹钢市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价先抑后扬。周初炉料走弱，炼钢成本下移，随着期现货价格回调前期获利盘商家急于套现，导致价格逐步回落。进入后半周，由于2月PMI指数走高，提振市场信心，叠加钢材库存下滑进一步推高钢价。后市展望：供应端，本期螺纹钢周度产量继续回升，周度产能利用率提升至65%附近，随着钢价反弹后市供应量有望延续增加；需求端，终端需求继续释放，库存量下滑，表观消费量连续五周增加，随着下游复工增多，需求量有望维持在较高水平。操作上建议，RB2305合约考虑回调做多，止损参考4150。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格先抑后扬本周，RB2305合约先抑后扬。本周，RB2305合约走势弱于RB2310合约，3日价差为57元/吨，周环比-3元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3000320034003600380040004200440046004800350050350010035001503500200350025035002022-06-012022-06-132022-06-222022-07-012022-07-122022-07-212022-08-012022-08-102022-08-192022-08-302022-09-082022-09-202022-09-292022-10-172022-10-262022-11-042022-11-152022-11-242022-12-052022-12-142022-12-232023-01-042023-01-132023-01-312023-02-092023-02-202023-03-01RB2305收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e010203040506070802022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-02RB2305-RB2310合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单增加，前20名持仓净空增加3月3日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为52764吨，周环比+300吨。3月3日，螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空65363张，较上一周增加13621张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-012021-03-292021-04-262021-05-242021-06-212021-07-192021-08-162021-09-132021-10-112021-11-082021-12-062022-01-032022-01-312022-02-282022-03-282022-04-252022-05-232022-06-202022-07-182022-08-152022-09-122022-10-102022-11-072022-12-052023-01-022023-01-302023-02-27螺纹钢仓单日报-200000-150000-100000-5000005000010000015000010000001200000140000016000001800000200000022000002021-12-092021-12-282022-01-172022-02-102022-03-012022-03-182022-04-082022-04-272022-05-192022-06-082022-06-272022-07-142022-08-022022-08-192022-09-072022-09-272022-10-212022-11-092022-11-282022-12-152023-01-042023-01-302023-02-16螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调，基差走强3月3日，上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400（理计）现货报价为4310元/吨，周环比+50元/吨；全国均价为4346元/吨，周环比+11元/吨。本周，螺纹钢现货价格强于期货，3日期现基差为38元/吨，周环比+2元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-142022-01-262022-02-102022-02-222022-03-042022-03-162022-03-282022-04-082022-04-202022-04-292022-05-132022-05-252022-06-072022-06-172022-06-292022-07-112022-07-212022-08-022022-08-122022-08-242022-09-052022-09-162022-09-282022-10-132022-10-252022-11-042022-11-162022-11-282022-12-082022-12-202022-12-302023-01-122023-01-292023-02-082023-02-202023-03-02全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120033003800430048005300580063002021-06-012021-06-252021-07-202021-08-122021-09-062021-10-082021-11-022021-11-252021-12-202022-01-132022-02-142022-03-092022-04-012022-04-282022-05-262022-06-212022-07-142022-08-082022-08-312022-09-262022-10-262022-11-182022-12-132023-01-062023-02-072023-03-02螺纹钢5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平3月3日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报988元/干吨，周环比+1元/干吨。3月3日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2910元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-27天津港一级冶金焦65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-082021-04-062021-05-072021-06-042021-07-052021-08-022021-08-302021-09-292021-11-032021-12-012021-12-292022-01-272022-03-032022-03-312022-05-052022-06-022022-07-012022-07-292022-08-262022-09-262022-10-312022-11-282022-12-262023-01-312023-02-28青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加，港口库存下滑据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2392.9万吨，环比增加89.6万吨。3月3日Mysteel统计全国45个港口铁矿石库存为14000.56，环比降222.70；日均疏港量321.77增2.48。分量方面，澳矿6563.98降44.05，巴西矿4884.97降110.93；贸易矿8214.23降86.74。（单位：万吨）图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-01-252019-03-292019-05-242019-07-192019-09-132019-11-152020-01-102020-03-132020-05-082020-07-032020-08-282020-10-232020-12-182021-02-192021-04-162021-06-112021-08-062021-10-012021-11-262022-01-212022-03-182022-05-132022-07-082022-09-022022-10-282022-12-232023-02-17铁矿石港口库存与矿价库存量（左）澳洲麦克粉61%（右）单位：万吨单位：元-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-2