螺纹钢市场周报：炉料回落压低成本，螺纹钢或先抑后扬

炉料回落压低成本，螺纹钢或先抑后扬「2024.01.05」研究员：蔡跃辉期货从业资格号F0251444期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101助理研究员：李秋荣期货从业资格号F03101823王凯慧期货从业资格号F03100511螺纹钢市场周报关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况4、期权市场 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周螺纹钢期价先扬后抑。周初炉料走高提升炼钢成本，同时冬储预期，主流持仓多单增仓明显，进入后半周，期价承压回落，由于焦炭第一轮调降落地，叠加铁矿石港口库存增加，炉料走弱压低炼钢成本，拖累螺纹钢期价。后市展望：供应端，本期螺纹钢周度产量继续下滑，产能利用率降至55%下方，进入淡季产量提产受限；需求端，临近假期，终端需求持续萎缩，库存量进一步提升；最后，近日螺纹钢价格持续上调，市场恐高情绪升温，叠加炉料回调炼钢成本支撑减弱，只是冬储预期螺纹钢期价仍有支撑。操作策略：RB2405合约考虑3950-3900区间择机做多，止损参考3850。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格冲高回落本周，RB2405合约冲高回落。本周，RB2405合约走势弱于RB2410合约，5日价差为16元/吨，周环比-14元/吨。图1、螺纹钢主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、螺纹钢跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院020000040000060000080000010000001200000140000016000001800000320033003400350036003700380039004000410042002023-05-042023-05-122023-05-222023-05-302023-06-072023-06-152023-06-272023-07-052023-07-132023-07-212023-07-312023-08-082023-08-162023-08-242023-09-012023-09-112023-09-192023-09-272023-10-132023-10-232023-10-312023-11-082023-11-162023-11-242023-12-042023-12-122023-12-202023-12-28RB2405收盘价及持仓量持仓量oi收盘价cl os e-400-300-200-10001002003004005006002021-11-012021-11-232021-12-152022-01-072022-02-072022-03-012022-03-232022-04-182022-05-132022-06-072022-06-292022-07-212022-08-122022-09-052022-09-282022-10-272022-11-182022-12-122023-01-042023-02-022023-02-242023-03-202023-04-122023-05-092023-05-312023-06-262023-07-182023-08-092023-08-312023-09-222023-10-242023-11-152023-12-072023-12-29RB2405-RB2410合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周螺纹钢仓单增加，前20名持仓净多减少1月5日，上海期货交易所螺纹钢仓单量为18903吨，周环比+1813吨。1月5日，螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓为净多23875张，较上一周-58274张。图3、上期所螺纹钢仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、螺纹钢期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002021-01-052021-02-022021-03-022021-03-302021-04-272021-05-252021-06-222021-07-202021-08-172021-09-142021-10-122021-11-092021-12-072022-01-042022-02-012022-03-012022-03-292022-04-262022-05-242022-06-212022-07-192022-08-162022-09-132022-10-112022-11-082022-12-062023-01-032023-01-312023-02-282023-03-282023-04-252023-05-232023-06-202023-07-182023-08-152023-09-122023-10-102023-11-072023-12-052024-01-02螺纹钢仓单日报-400000-300000-200000-1000000100000200000500000100000015000002000000250000030000002020-01-022020-02-272020-04-162020-06-082020-07-282020-09-142020-11-092020-12-252021-02-192021-04-092021-06-012021-07-202021-09-062021-11-022021-12-202022-02-142022-04-012022-05-262022-07-142022-08-312022-10-262022-12-132023-02-072023-03-272023-05-182023-07-072023-08-242023-10-192023-12-06螺纹钢期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格先扬后抑，基差走强1月5日，上海三级螺纹钢20mmHRB400（理计）现货报价为3980元/吨，周环比+0元/吨；全国均价为4088元/吨，周环比+14元/吨。本周，螺纹钢现货价格强于期货价格，5日期现基差为1元/吨，周环比+23元/吨。图5、全国各地区螺纹钢现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、螺纹钢主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院3300380043004800530058002022-01-042022-01-242022-02-162022-03-082022-03-282022-04-182022-05-092022-05-272022-06-172022-07-072022-07-272022-08-162022-09-052022-09-262022-10-192022-11-082022-11-282022-12-162023-01-062023-01-312023-02-202023-03-102023-03-302023-04-202023-05-112023-05-312023-06-202023-07-112023-07-312023-08-182023-09-072023-09-272023-10-232023-11-102023-11-302023-12-20全国各地区螺纹钢现货报价价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:天津价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:成都价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:全国-400-20002004006008001000120033003800430048005300580063002021-06-012021-07-072021-08-112021-09-152021-10-292021-12-032022-01-102022-02-212022-03-282022-05-092022-06-142022-07-192022-08-232022-09-282022-11-092022-12-142023-01-192023-03-022023-04-072023-05-172023-06-212023-07-282023-09-012023-10-162023-11-202023-12-25螺纹钢5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):螺纹钢现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格下调1月5日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报1111元/干吨，周环比+34元/干吨。1月5日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2540元/吨，周环比-100元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-192021-03-312021-05-142021-06-242021-08-032021-09-102021-10-292021-12-082022-01-182022-03-042022-04-152022-05-302022-07-082022-08-172022-09-272022-11-112022-12-212023-02-072023-03-172023-04-272023-06-092023-07-212023-08-302023-10-172023-11-242024-01-04青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨18002300280033003800430048002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-272023-05-312023-06-302023-07-312023-08-292023-09-272023-11-022023-12-012024-01-02天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本期中国47港到港总量增加，港口库存增加12月25日-12月31日中国47港到港总量2909.9万吨，环比增加718.2万吨；中国45港到港总量2774.9万吨，环比增加715.1万吨；北方六港到港总量为1360.5万吨，环比增加314.8万吨。1月5日，Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存为12244.75，环比增253.02；日均疏港量305.28增7.14。分量方面，澳矿5358.13增73.26，巴西矿4735.04增116.17；贸易矿7073.55增93.61（单位：万吨）。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院250450650850105012501450165018503500550075009500115001350015500175002019-01-042019-03-152019-05-172019-07-192019-09-202019-11-292020-02-072020-04-102020-06-122020-08-142020-10-162020-12-182021-02-262021-04-302021-07-022021-09-032021-11-