图表设置下载图片另存为PDF分享聚烯烃日报 | 2023-3-3资金持续增仓塑料,聚烯烃强弱分化延续【期货市场】周四L2305开8386最高8434最低8365结算8397涨28,成交量增26901手,持仓增加9699手;PP2305开7893最高7942最低7871结算7905涨5,成交量缩减6714手,持仓减4096手,日盘期价冲高回落收十字星。【现货市场】(1)周四LLDPE市场价格延续涨势,华北大区线性涨20-100元/吨;华东大区线性部分涨20-100元/吨;华南大区线性部分涨20-100元/吨。国内LLDPE的主流价格在8280-8550元/吨。PP上调幅度不大,华东拉丝主流价格在7760-7880元/吨。基差PP05华东-141,L05华北-82。(2)周三两油库存75.5万吨,去库3.5万吨。PE线性膜料排产比34.5%,PE管材料排产11.3%,低压中空6%,停车比例14.7%;PP拉丝排产比30.17%,低熔共聚8.01%,停车13.76%。(3)石化出厂价格部分上调,期货上涨一定程度上提振贸易商心态,但随着市场报盘走高,下游接盘较昨日有所放缓,刚需采购为主。【综合分析】周四期货盘面未能延续前一日强势,而是高开低走,现货市场成交受制于价格上行而转弱,期货价格午后回落,两个品种资金持续分化,强弱也更为明显。塑料作为资金多配品种表现偏强,持仓持续增加,预计后期仍有小幅空间。【操作建议】价差:L-PP价差继续扩大。单边:L05技术偏强,短期处于8300-8500区间,关注后续突破情况。PP05关注8000关口压力。作者:风云能化团联系方式: 手机号18691579830邮箱liuss@hrrdqh.com 聚烯烃日报 2023-3-3近一年不同工艺制PP生产利润(元/吨)-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002022-02-252022-05-122022-07-202022-09-272022-12-092023-02西北煤原油石脑油外采丙烯外采丙烷近一年不同原料生产PE利润(元/吨)-3,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002022-02-252022-05-132022-07-222022-09-302022-12-152023-0西北煤外采乙烯原油石脑油综合利润聚丙烯整体开工率(%)76788082848688909294969801-0202-0503-1104-1405-1906-2207-2608-2910-0911-1212-16201720182019202020212022202387.2387.23聚丙烯开工率_拉丝(%)202224262830323436384042444601-0202-0603-1304-1705-2306-2708-0109-0510-1711-2112-26201720182019202020212022202329.5929.59聚丙烯加权利润(元吨)-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50001-0302-0703-1404-1805-2406-2808-0209-0610-1811-2212-22017201820192020202120222023-642.531-642.531塑料开工率_LLDPE(%)2628303234363840424446485001-0202-0503-1104-1405-1906-2207-2608-2910-0911-1212-16201720182019202020212022202336.7636.76塑料开工率_整体(%)7476788082848688909294969810001-0202-0503-1104-1405-1906-2207-2608-2910-0911-1212-16201720182019202020212022202388.7588.75综合制PE利润(元吨)-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50001-0202-0603-1304-1705-2306-2708-0109-0510-1711-2112-262017201820192020202120222023-135.674-135.674 聚烯烃日报 2023-3-3聚乙烯LLDPE仓单数量(手)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,00001-0202-0603-1304-2205-2807-0208-0609-1010-2211-2612-3201720182019202020212022202313811381聚丙烯注册仓单量(手)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00001-0202-0603-1304-2005-2606-3008-0409-0810-2011-2412-2201720182019202020212022202334933493塑料05合约基差(元吨)-800-600-400-20002004006008001,00002-0103-0504-0605-0906-1007-1208-1309-1410-2311-2412-262017201820192020202120222023-82-82塑料05月交割收盘价(元吨)-800-600-400-20002004006008001,00002-0103-0504-0605-0906-1007-1208-1309-1410-2311-2412-262017201820192020202120222023-82-82塑料05月交割持仓量(手)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,00002-0103-0604-0805-1206-1407-1708-1909-2110-3112-032017201820192020202120222023438869438869聚丙烯05月交割持仓量(手)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,00002-0103-0604-0805-1206-1407-1708-1909-2110-3112-032017201820192020202120222023425399425399聚丙烯05月交割收盘价(元吨)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,00002-0103-0604-0805-1206-1407-1708-1909-2110-3112-032017201820192020202120222023425399425399聚丙烯05合约基差(元吨)-600-500-400-300-200-100010020030040050060070002-0103-0504-0605-0906-1007-1208-1309-1410-2311-2412-262017201820192020202120222023-171-171 聚烯烃日报 2023-3-3【免责声明】本分析报告由华融融达期货股份有限公司提供,仅作为所服务的特定企业与机构一般用途而准备,未经许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发布及分发本报告的全部或部分内容给其它任何人士。如引用发布,须注明出处:华融融达期货股份有限公司,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本报告引用的信息和数据均来自于公开资料及其它合法渠道,力求报告内容、引用资料和数据的客观公正。尽可能保证可靠、准确和完整,但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性,本报告所提供的信息仅供参考,不作为投资决策的依据,客户应自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交易后果。两油石化库存(万吨)40506070809010011012013014015016017001-0202-0503-1104-1505-2306-2607-3009-0210-1311-1612-202019202020212022202375.575.5塑料05-09合约价差(元吨)-250-200-150-100-5005010015020025030002-0102-1202-2303-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1220172018201920202021202220234848聚丙烯05-09合约价差(元吨)-10001002003004005006007008009001,0001,10002-0102-1202-2303-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1220172018201920202021202220231010PVC-L价差05合约(元吨)-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,00006-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-252013-20142014-20152015-20162016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-2023-1995-1995塑料聚丙烯05合约价差(元吨)-500-400-300-200-10001002003004005006007002021-08-162021-12-032022-03-232022-07-112022-10-272023-02-塑料聚丙烯01合约价差(元吨)【聚丙烯_价差】PP-3MA价差05合约(元吨)-900-600-30003006009001,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,7003,00006-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-252016-20172017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20236161