2022年净利润同比+3.5倍，但低于预期;20%的诱人收益率

Yancoal Australia (3668 HKD) reported a net profit of AUD 3.6 billion in 2022, up 3.5 times YoY, but still 20% lower than our forecast. The miss was due to higher unit costs than expected and a one-time write-off of AUD 2.79 billion related to提前还款债务.剔除 one-time items, net profit would have been AUD 38.7 billion (only 14% lower) than our forecast. Looking forward, we expect sales growth to resume and higher coal prices to be a key driver in mitigating the impact of high unit costs. We have downgraded our 2023/24 earnings forecasts by 6%/3% mainly due to higher unit cost assumptions. Our net present value target price has been lowered to HKD 48 (WACC: 6.6%). The current 20% yield should help limit downside share price movements. Maintain Buy.

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