热轧卷板市场周报：弱现实强预期，支撑热卷震荡偏强

弱现实强预期，支撑热卷震荡偏强「2023.01.20」作者：许方莉期货投资咨询证号：Z0017638热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价延续震荡偏强格局。随着春节假期临近，终端需求继续萎缩，库存量再度上升，但在稳增长，扩大内需支撑下，市场对于中长期需求保持良好预期，弱现实强预期继续支撑钢价上行。后市展望：供应端，热卷周度产量维持在300万吨附近，产能利用率降至75%附近；需求端，热卷库存总量继续增加，但增幅有限，且与去年同期相近。最后，国内宏观面整体向好，对热卷期价仍有支撑作用。操作上建议，HC2305合约维持震荡偏多交易，注意风险控制。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡上行本周，HC2305合约震荡上行。本周，HC2305合约弱于HC2310合约，20日价差为59元/吨，周环比-3元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000003300350037003900410043004500470049002022-06-012022-06-092022-06-162022-06-232022-06-302022-07-072022-07-142022-07-212022-07-282022-08-042022-08-112022-08-182022-08-252022-09-012022-09-082022-09-162022-09-232022-09-302022-10-142022-10-212022-10-282022-11-042022-11-112022-11-182022-11-252022-12-022022-12-092022-12-162022-12-232022-12-302023-01-092023-01-16HC2305合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close-300-200-10001002003002021-11-012021-11-182021-12-072021-12-242022-01-132022-02-082022-02-252022-03-162022-04-062022-04-252022-05-172022-06-062022-06-232022-07-122022-07-292022-08-172022-09-052022-09-232022-10-192022-11-072022-11-242022-12-132022-12-302023-01-19HC2305-HC2310合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净空减少1月20日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为168337吨，周环比+50879吨。1月20日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空52370张，较上一周减少7178张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-112020-03-122020-04-142020-05-192020-06-182020-07-222020-08-212020-09-222020-10-302020-12-012020-12-312021-02-022021-03-112021-04-132021-05-182021-06-182021-07-202021-08-192021-09-222021-10-292021-11-302021-12-302022-02-082022-03-102022-04-132022-05-182022-06-202022-07-202022-08-192022-09-212022-10-282022-11-292022-12-29库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-140000-120000-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000002022-01-042022-01-192022-02-102022-02-252022-03-142022-03-292022-04-152022-05-052022-05-202022-06-072022-06-222022-07-072022-07-222022-08-082022-08-232022-09-072022-09-232022-10-172022-11-012022-11-162022-12-012022-12-162023-01-032023-01-18热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调1月20日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为4280元/吨，周环比+50元/吨；全国均价为4221元/吨，周环比-7元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格强于期货价格，20日基差为79元/吨，周环比+51元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002022-01-042022-01-122022-01-202022-01-282022-02-102022-02-182022-02-282022-03-082022-03-162022-03-242022-04-012022-04-122022-04-202022-04-272022-05-092022-05-172022-05-252022-06-022022-06-132022-06-212022-06-292022-07-072022-07-152022-07-252022-08-022022-08-102022-08-182022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-132022-10-212022-10-312022-11-082022-11-162022-11-242022-12-022022-12-122022-12-202022-12-282023-01-062023-01-16全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-200020040060080010003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-02-012021-03-082021-04-062021-05-072021-06-042021-07-052021-08-022021-08-302021-09-292021-11-032021-12-012021-12-292022-01-272022-03-032022-03-312022-05-052022-06-022022-07-012022-07-292022-08-262022-09-262022-10-312022-11-282022-12-26热卷5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货上调，焦炭现货价格持平1月20日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报914元/干吨，周环比+4元/干吨。1月20日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2910元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院20002500300035004000450050002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-23天津港一级冶金焦65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-042021-01-292021-03-042021-03-312021-04-282021-05-282021-06-252021-07-222021-08-182021-09-142021-10-202021-11-162021-12-132022-01-102022-02-112022-03-102022-04-082022-05-102022-06-072022-07-042022-07-292022-08-252022-09-222022-10-262022-11-222022-12-192023-01-16青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量减少据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2193.8万吨，环比减少73.6万吨。1月9日-1月15日中国47港到港总量2476.9万吨，环比减少109.7万吨；中国45港到港总量2370.1万吨，环比减少112.3万吨；北方六港到港总量为1254.2万吨，环比减少181.2万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-242019-04-142019-06-022019-07-212019-09-082019-10-272019-12-152020-02-022020-03-222020-05-102020-06-282020-08-162020-10-042020-11-222021-01-102021-02-282021-04-182021-06-062021-07-252021-09-122021-10-312021-12-192022-02-062022-03-272022-05-152022-07-032022-08-212022-10-092022-11-272023-01-15澳巴铁矿石发货总量增减澳巴总量-1000-800-600-400-20002004006008001500170019002100230025002700290031002021/1/32021/1/312021/2/282021/3/282021/4/252021/5/232021/6/202021/7/252021/8/222021/9/222021/10/182021/11/152021/12/132022/1/102022/2/72022/3/72022/4/62