Goertek (002241.SZ) Equity Research·Company Research·Consumer Electronics 1 / 5 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Goertek announced the revision of performance forecast, indicating other cooperative products is in normal operation Buy (Maintain) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 78,221 93,964 103,950 119,196 Growth (YoY %) 35% 20% 11% 15% Non-GAAP net profit (RMB mn) 4,275 1,911 3,302 4,503 Growth (YoY %) 50% -55% 73% 36% Diluted EPS (RMB, Non-GAAP) 1.25 0.56 0.97 1.32 P/E (X, Non-GAAP) 14.31 32.02 18.53 13.59 Key words：#The second curve #Lower-than-expected earnings results #Integration Event: Goertek disclosed the " Risk warning announcements" on November 9, 2022, and released the "Announcement on the revision of performance forecast for 2022" on December 3, 2022. ◼ The reason for the change in Goertek's performance is that one of the intelligent acoustic complete machine products of a major overseas customer suspended production. Affected by this, the company's operating income decreased by no more than RMB3.3 bn this year, and the related direct loss was approximately RMB0.9 bn (including the decrease in direct profit and the loss of shutdown, etc.). The company intends to increase the provision for impairment of assets and confirm the impairment loss of assets based on the principle of prudence. The impairment loss is expected to be RMB1.1-1.5 bn (including inventory falling price loss of approximately RMB0.7-0.9 bn and fixed assets impairment loss of approximately RMB0.4-0.6 bn). ◼ Goertek promoted the follow-up solution of relevant matters, and other cooperative products is in normal operation. After the above matters, the company's management team actively responded, maintained close communication with customers. At the same time, the company actively performs the relevant information disclosure obligations. ◼ We continue to be firmly optimistic about the company's long-term trends. 1) In 2023, Chinese, Japanese and American customers will release new VR products, which is expected to drive the growth of shipments in 2023. Based on different factors in the long-run, VR/AR hardware shipments are expected to continue to grow in the next few years; 2) Game console shipments and company share Sustained growth and major domestic customers adding smart wearables will bring incremental contributions to future revenue and profits. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: Based on the calculation of direct losses and asset impairment losses, we lowered the profit forecast for 2022. The adjusted net profit for 2022-2024 is RMB1.9/3.3/4.5 bn respectively. The VR/AR industry is entering a period of rapid growth, and the company is expected to fully benefit from the growth with its profound technology and customer advantages. We maintain the “buy” rating. ◼ Risks: Lower-than-expected VR/AR industry development; Sales of other products miss expectations. [Table_PicQuote] Price Movement [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 17.89 52-week Range (RMB) 16.76/58.43 P/B (X) 1.94 Market Cap (RMB mn) 53,815.90 Basic Data data BVPS(RMB, LF) 9.24 Liabilities/assets (%) 59.61 Total Issued Shares (mn) 3,420.40 Shares outstanding (mn) 3,008.16 [Table_Report] Related reports 《歌尔股份(002241)：2022Q3季报点评：下半年承压，长期趋势不变》 2022-10-28 《歌尔股份(002241)：综合核心竞争力带来持续成长信心》 2022-09-19 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Tianyi Ma(马天翼), and Jing Jin(金晶). [Table_Author] 13 January 2023 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -39%-32%-25%-18%-11%-4%3%10%17%24%2021/09/222022/01/192022/05/182022/09/14GoertekCSI300 歌尔股份（002241.SZ） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电子 2 / 5 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 事件点评：发布业绩预告修正公告，其他产品合作正常 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 78,221 93,964 103,950 119,196 同比 35% 20% 11% 15% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 4,275 1,911 3,302 4,503 同比 50% -55% 73% 36% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 1.25 0.56 0.97 1.32 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 14.31 32.02 18.53 13.59 关键词：#第二曲线 #业绩不及预期 #一体化 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司22年11月9日披露《风险提示性公告》，并于22年12月3日发布《2022年度业绩预告修正公告》。 ◼ 境外大客户特定项目暂停影响2022年业绩：境外某大客户通知公司暂停生产其一款智能声学整机产品，基于当前该产品预计无法于2022年内恢复生产的影响，本年度营收减少不超过33亿元，直接损失约9亿元（直接利润减少、停工造成的产线及员工工资等成本损耗），并基于谨慎性原则充分考虑影响拟增加计提资产减值损失11-15亿元（其中存货跌价损失约7-9亿元，固定资产减值损失约4-6亿元），综上直接损失和资产减值损失约20-24亿元，对2022年度经营业绩产生显著影响。 ◼ 积极推动后续解决，大客户其他产品合作正常：公司在积极履行相关信息披露义务的同时，管理团队积极应对，与客户保持紧密沟通，推动相关事项的后续解决；该事项仅涉及某一特定智能声学整机产品，公司与该客户除该款产品之外的其他零组件（声学、微电子、精密件等）和整机业务（耳机、音箱等）合作均在正常开展中，并凭借多年深入的合作和技术积累形成深厚的竞争优势和壁垒。 ◼ 我们继续坚定看好公司长期趋势：公司深耕4+4+n零整协同战略，在Viewable、Wearable、Hearable、Home等新兴智能硬件领域不断夯实自身核心竞争力，未来依旧可期！1）VR逻辑有望持续兑现：未来一年内中日美客户密集发布VR新品（P与S客户高增长确定性强、M期待消费级新品迭代）有望拉动明年出货量保持增长，长期基于国内外VR生态完善、应用场景拓展以及更多科技巨头入局等多方面的因素，VR/AR硬件出货量未来几年仍有望持续增长；2）其他产品线仍有确定性增量单品：游戏机出货量及公司份