甲醇产业链数据周报：单体压制仍然明显，上方空间不大。

戴一帆从业资格证号：F3046357投资咨询证号：Z0015428甲醇产业链数据周报：单体压制仍然明显，上方空间不大。 01本周甲醇港口、内地、外盘价格均有小幅上调，但是产业链上下游价格没能跟上，烯烃单体的价格表现仍然很弱，甲醇上方压制仍然明显。周度产业链价格总览：合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约26162572442524921-5价差-4-3329-242005合约26202605152548725-9价差000-272709合约26202605152575459-1价差433-2951-47今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线204019051352150-110鲁南245022751752610-160北线206019251352195-135河北242522252002555-130关中21302100302270-140山西236521002652460-95河南23952315802580-185华南25902595-52790-200鲁北242522401852590-165太仓 26752635402690-15今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国3153051029025CFR印度325.531015.528639.5CFR东南亚371.5364.5735714.5FOB鹿特丹305.5321.5-1629015.5CFR日韩3553532360-5FOB美湾(美分/加仑）102.25108.25-689.2513今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯（美金）#N/A870#N/A880#N/AMEG39703988-18390268丙烯（美金）#N/A895#N/A885#N/AEO61006800-7006800-700丁二烯（美金）#N/A840#N/A760#N/A醋酸28752900-253902-1027PE81508250-1008350-200甲醛1000100001130-130PP77007700077000二甲醚388037001804130-250PVC#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/AMTBE650063002006950-450期货国内市场国际市场下游价格 02150020002500300035002022-08-192022-09-192022-10-192022-11-192022-12-19区域价格汇总太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东区域价格：1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500太仓价格20202021202220231,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500北线价格20202021202220231,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500鲁北价格2020202120222023 03月差、基差：-2000200400600800100011/112/112/311/302/293/304/295年区间5年均值2205基差2305基差-200-10001002003004001/11/313/13/314/305年区间5年均值2205-22092305-2309-250-501503505503/13/314/305/306/297/298/285年区间5年均值2109基差2209基差-200-160-120-80-40040805/15/316/307/308/295年区间5年均值2109-22012209-2301-150-50501502503504505506509/110/110/3111/3012/305年区间5年均值2201-22052301-2305-350-250-150-50501502503504505506507/17/318/309/2910/2911/2812/285年区间5年均值2201基差2301基差 04-1500-1000-5000500100015002000160021002600310036004100460051002021-07-292021-08-292021-09-292021-10-292021-11-292021-12-292022-01-292022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-31内蒙古煤制利润利润（右轴）北线市场价内蒙古煤制成本利润情况：-2000-1500-1000-5000500100018002300280033003800430048002021-07-292021-08-292021-09-292021-10-292021-11-292021-12-292022-01-292022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-31山东煤制成本利润（右轴）山东中部市场价山东煤制成本-2003008001300180018002300280033003800430048002021-07-292021-08-292021-09-292021-10-292021-11-292021-12-292022-01-292022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-31焦炉气制利润利润（右轴）河北市场价河北焦炉气制成本-700-200300800130018001800230028003300380043002021-07-292021-08-292021-09-292021-10-292021-11-292021-12-292022-01-292022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-31西南天然气制利润利润（右轴）川渝市场价西南天然气制成本 052020.52121.52222.52323.52424.525甲醇日产（检修预测）55%60%65%70%75%80%甲醇全国开工率201820192020202120222023开工率：55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%西北甲醇开工率20182019202020212022202350%55%60%65%70%75%甲醇非一体化开工率2020202120222023 062502702903103303503703902022-09-132022-09-202022-09-272022-10-042022-10-112022-10-182022-10-252022-11-012022-11-082022-11-152022-11-222022-11-292022-12-062022-12-132022-12-202022-12-272023-01-03外盘结构鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR外盘价格：0100200300400500600中国CFR20192020202120222023100200300400500600东南亚CFR2019202020212022202320406080100120140160180美湾FOB（美分/加仑）20192020202120222023 0750%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%MTO开工率201820192020202120222023MTO开工率：20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%华东MTO开工率202020212022202302468101214162022年MTO日耗加总沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总•鲁西循环水故障重启推迟，中原乙烯春节前不会回归。兴兴本周末重启。 08-2000-1500-1000-500050010001500宁波富德综合利润201820192020202120222023MTO利润：-2000-1500-1000-5000500100015002000浙江兴兴MTO利润201820192020202120222023-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030004000大唐多伦MTP 利润201820192020202120222023-1000010002000300040005000联泓MTO综合利润201820192020202120222023 09传统下游开工率：30%40%50%60%70%80%90%氯化物开工率2020202120222023•下游整体变动不大，整体受到疫情影响，叠加季节性走弱。30%35%40%45%50%55%甲醇传统下游加权开工率20182019202020212022202320%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%MTBE开工率20182019202020212022202345%55%65%75%85%95%105%醋酸开工率2018201920202021202220235%10%15%20%25%30%二甲醚开工率20182019202020212022202320%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%DMF开工率2018201920202021202220230%5%10%15%20%25%甲缩醛开工率201820192020202120222023 0108001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200甲醛价格华南华北山东甲醛：01000002000003000004000005000002021-02-282021-03-312021-04-302021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-31甲醛月产量甲醛月产量700900110013001500170019002100甲醛成本201820192020202120222023-150-5050150250350450甲醛利润201820192020202120222023 011二甲醚：2000250030003500400045005000550060006500河南二甲醚价格2018201920202021202220232000250030003500400045005000550060006500河南二甲醚成本201820192020202120222023-600-400-2000200400600800河南二甲醚利润20182019202020212022202310%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%0.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.72019/1/12020/1/12021/1/12022/1/1LPG/DME与DME开工率相关性LPG/DMEDME开工率 012MTBE：60,00070,00080,00090,000100,000110,000120,000山东下游库存20202021202220233,0004,0005,0