戴一帆从业资格证号：F3046357投资咨询证号：Z0015428聚氯乙烯产业链数据周报 01估值观察兰炭近端司机比较紧缺，周转有困难，兰炭价格变化不大，报1520-1580元/吨，整体定性更多是短期影响，煤炭下行背景下预计偏弱运行。中电石兰炭反弹后利润压缩，且开工率已经反弹到一个比较高的水平，预计进一步提升空间有限，近期物流矛盾突出，部分地区司机难寻，出厂价格承压为主。中地产11月地产数据仍然十分糟糕，现实端仍然看不出丝毫改善，数据出炉之后盘面有所降温，但是远端预期仍然难以证伪。现实方面近端步入淡季，叠加疫情的冲击，需求端平淡。中本周总结供应本周供应端PVC继续回归，电石法回归1.7%，乙烯法提升6%，总开工提升2.6%达到76%，已经基本恢复到往年的正常区间，后期预期恢复速度逐步放缓。空库存本周华东库存累库开始兑现，华南基本走平。本周华东有较多车皮抵达，但是由于仓库疫情问题，导致卸货存在较大问题，最终累库不及预期。累库预期继续向后推移。上游库存小幅去化1.5万吨，预售大幅增加6万吨。空需求近端疫情冲击全国，下游普遍躺平，订单开工等数据普遍比较一般，部分下游工厂已经开始停车。当然这也是预期内的，盘面也不会怎么交易近期糟糕的需求。周度表需继续提升，这其中有较大物流问题导致的显性转隐性的问题。中现货本周PVC成交仍然低迷，基差维持。下游逢低采购不追涨的思路仍在坚持。中进出口上周由于美国寒潮导致印度市场情绪再度被点燃，上周出口再度放量，出口待发达到了20万吨以上的水平。多观点基本面变化不大，静待节后见真章本周基本面环比上没有出现特别大的变化，整体华东社库的累库真正开始兑现，且由于疫情影响装卸的问题累库的数据远不及真正的到库量，出口则持续的超预期，美国寒潮再度点燃了印度市场的情绪，本周出口再度明显放量，持续性仍然值得关注。从盘面来看，近端的基本面数据其实并不太重要，春节前的萎靡市场是有一定预期的，真正的下跌或者进一步反弹仍然要等到春节后验证新年下游和竣工真正的含金量。根据我们的平衡表来看，明年PVC要出现一个比较好的去库格局，对需求的要求是非常高的，甚至有一些苛刻，且盘面之前已经交易了一轮所谓竣工复苏的预期，当下价格去追多性价比并不高，因此我们总体对明年05的价格仍然是持续谨慎看空的观点。策略05空单继续持有，由于我们认为短期地产预期无法证伪，下跌空间暂时有限，区间内可以尝试高抛低吸。风险/周度观点： 02近端环比主要2个重要变化，第一是出口的预期再度大幅抬升了，如果能持续的话，估计能削减15万吨以上的国内过剩量，第二则是装置利润回归了，我们上修了2个点的明年平衡表开工率，总体去库难度仍然比较大。月度平衡表：平衡表2时间沿海库存沿海变动工厂库存总库存供需差装置变化产能开工率PVC国产进口量出口量表观消费量消费同比年度累计消费量累计同比2023/6/3056.15-4.3340.0096.15-9.33276779.00%179.673.0012.00180.0020.96%1010.003.46%2023/5/3160.491.9545.00105.49-8.05276777.00%180.953.0012.00180.004.10%830.000.31%2023/4/3058.530.6755.00113.53-9.33276779.00%179.673.0012.00180.0011.02%650.00-0.69%2023/3/3157.8711.3565.00122.871.35万华化学40276781.00%190.353.0012.00180.00-5.21%470.00-4.55%2023/2/2846.5114.0075.00121.5139.00272782.22%172.007.0015.00125.00-7.83%290.00-4.13%2023/1/3132.518.5550.0082.5112.00272782.04%190.007.0020.00165.00-1.14%165.00-1.14%2022/12/3123.96-1.1346.5570.510.42信发二期40272778.58%182.005.0017.00169.58-3.16%1991.81-4.07%2022/11/3025.09-7.7545.0070.09-4.86华谊钦州40268774.37%164.254.178.45164.84-4.40%1822.23-4.16%2022/10/3132.84-1.8242.1274.967.19264780.69%181.402.929.66167.4814.87%1657.40-4.13%2022/9/3034.660.1133.1167.77-4.23海晶20264780.84%175.893.0410.97172.199.82%1489.92-5.88%2022/8/3134.55-0.8637.4572.00-3.77262779.41%177.172.8813.00170.82-6.05%1317.73-7.61%2022/7/3135.411.3040.3675.775.30262785.61%191.002.6517.69170.66-7.91%1146.90-7.83%2022/6/3034.114.0336.3670.4713.10262783.95%181.262.9822.34148.80-19.42%976.25-7.82%2022/5/3130.08-1.9527.2957.37-2.54262787.30%194.772.2026.60172.91-2.32%827.44-5.37%2022/4/3032.03-0.6627.8859.913.88262788.49%191.062.7627.80162.14-13.97%654.53-6.15%2022/3/3132.69-3.5423.3456.03-10.35262789.12%198.832.8022.09189.895.06%492.40-3.25%2022/2/2836.2313.5630.1466.3730.39262787.26%175.841.6411.48135.61-4.74%302.51-7.83%2022/1/3122.6710.0613.3135.9810.01德州实华20262784.33%188.152.6313.87166.90-10.19%166.90-10.19%2021/12/3112.61-2.7713.3625.97-5.55宜化+6大沽+10260783.89%185.753.0419.22175.12-3.10%2076.35-1.29%2021/11/3015.38-1.0416.1431.52-3.32259183.16%177.103.4811.48172.42-9.78%1901.23-1.11%2021/10/3116.42-1.3218.4234.8411.81259175.30%165.713.0711.17145.80-21.62%1728.82-0.16%2021/9/3017.744.055.2923.03-1.51259175.45%160.684.8410.23156.80-14.83%1583.012.43%2021/8/3113.691.3910.8524.542.16259184.55%186.054.826.89181.82-6.51%1426.214.76%2021/7/3112.30-2.2010.0822.38-0.69259185.09%187.253.596.21185.32-4.13%1244.396.64%2021/6/3014.50-2.788.5723.07-2.02浙江嘉化30259190.70%193.162.4312.95184.66-4.57%1059.078.77% 03现货成交：050001000015000200002022/11/142022/11/162022/11/182022/11/202022/11/222022/11/242022/11/262022/11/282022/11/302022/12/22022/12/42022/12/62022/12/82022/12/102022/12/122022/12/142022/12/162022/12/182022/12/202022/12/222022/12/242022/12/262022/12/282022/12/30PVC华东贸易商成交量氯碱物产特产控股仁信双元中哲化轻象屿奥瑞萱道普利源一石玄德华东0500010000150002000025000300002022/11/72022/11/92022/11/112022/11/132022/11/152022/11/172022/11/192022/11/212022/11/232022/11/252022/11/272022/11/292022/12/12022/12/32022/12/52022/12/72022/12/92022/12/112022/12/132022/12/152022/12/172022/12/192022/12/212022/12/23PVC全国贸易成交量华南加总华东加总0500010000150002022/11/72022/11/92022/11/112022/11/132022/11/152022/11/172022/11/192022/11/212022/11/232022/11/252022/11/272022/11/292022/12/12022/12/32022/12/52022/12/72022/12/92022/12/112022/12/132022/12/152022/12/172022/12/192022/12/212022/12/23PVC华南贸易商成交量申海昌鑫久塑特产明日塑道物产象屿广塑双元金丰泰玄德中船仁信诚裕丰中基蓝航中菁5500650075008500950000.511.522.533.542022/8/162022/9/162022/10/162022/11/162022/12/16PVC成交放量指标放量指标日成交PVC主连 04市场心态：500070009000110001300015000-100-50050100PVC市场心态指标看涨信号看跌信号看涨-看跌比例PVC主连 05沿海库存、表需：0102030405060PVC社库（华东+华南）2019202020212022202305101520253035PVC华东库存201720182019202020212022024681012141618PVC华南库存201720182019202020212022102030405060PVC周度表需（出口调整后）2020202120222023 06内地库存、预售：01020304050607080PVC上游预售量2019202020212022202301020304050607080PVC上游厂库20192020202120222023010203040506070PVC电石法厂库2019202020212022202302468101214PVC乙烯法厂库20192020202120222023 07盘面持仓成交：02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001600000PVC期货持仓量（单边计算）20172018201920202021202205000001000000150000020000002500000PVC期货成交量201720182019202020212022 08-30003006009001200150018007/17/318/309/2910/2911/2812/285年区间5年均值2201基差2301基差月差、基差：-200