戴一帆从业资格证号：F3046357投资咨询证号：Z0015428聚氯乙烯产业链数据周报 01估值观察兰炭本周煤炭情绪走弱，坑口港口外盘联动下跌，兰炭开工提升，成交价格下滑，中料报1650-1680元/吨，电石承压的背景下，同时发运也有较大困难，利润低位维持。空电石兰炭下跌后利润修复，电石法PVC开工负荷密集下调，电石价格承压，开工率暂时变化不大，库存小幅去化，未来有部分PVC装置回归，预计电石自身利润扩张空间不大，整体跟随成本端。中地产10月地产数据仍然十分糟糕，基本看不出丝毫改善。近期杭州等城市房贷政策有了一定放松，同时央行16条的发布给与了市场一定的振奋剂，但是兑现到真实复苏仍然需要时间。多本周总结供应本周供应端PVC开工率小幅回升，乙烯法回归较多，电石法偏慢，总体提升幅度不大，下周预计总开工率继续提升，近端应该已经是近期开工率的低点了。新装置华谊近端即将出料。中库存本周华东去库1.2万吨左右，华南小幅去库接近2000吨，总社库去化，内地厂库大幅累库4.1万吨，订单走强0.35万吨，上游压力仍在，全国总库存明显积累。空需求北方降温，近端下游开工率略有走弱，周度表需很差，再创新低，感知上订单没有好转，定性上仍然偏弱。中现货本周PVC价格震荡，但是成交非常弱，基差走弱至100附近，下游逢低补库反弹不追的思路仍然在贯彻。中进出口本周外盘价格继续下滑，12月台塑价格预计下滑50到100美金，美国报盘下调至650-700区间，日韩的进口船只近端即将开始抵达，12月后PVC净出口的格局可能发生逆转。空观点现实仍然残酷，PVC看空不改周五交易所会议，PVC新增交割库最终没能落地，整体空头情绪有损失，周五减仓离场比较明显。但基本面看，PVC弱势格局难改，供应仅仅开始小幅回归，厂库再度出现大幅累库，上游压力进一步增大。进口成交的很厉害，且近端韩国、东南亚等地区的货源即将抵达国内，后市对进出口的格局产生了扭转的预期。华北需求季节性走弱，贸易商的持货意愿也比较低。季节性上01也是一个比较糟糕的合约。同时煤炭的走弱正在逐步传递给兰炭电石，整体成本端的塌陷正在再度给出下方空间，其实从逻辑上来看，PVC01终点大概率是要跌破5500的。但目前时间点已经11月下旬，高持仓步入12月整体产业话语权会提升，这是比较不利于空头的。明年05其实格局也是非常糟糕的，新开工将传递至竣工品种的表需，且还有新增供应与进口冲击，如果担心01也发生一些类似09合约上的问题，考虑将部分空头头寸转移至05合约。策略5800-6000区间继续抛空。风险/周度观点： 0210月结束，表需来看需求没有任何起色。近端利润+疫情干扰下供应缩量明显，11-12月产量明显下调，但是平衡表来看去库难度仍然比较大。月度平衡表：平衡表2时间沿海库存沿海变动工厂库存总库存供需差装置变化PVC国产进口量出口量表观消费量消费同比年度累计消费量累计同比库存消费比单日平均表观消费2022/12/3139.967.0035.0074.964.00182.005.008.00175.00-0.07%2007.40-3.32%22.8%5.652022/11/3032.960.1238.0070.96-4.00华谊钦州40175.004.008.00175.001.50%1832.40-3.62%18.8%5.832022/10/3132.84-1.8242.1274.967.19181.402.929.66167.4814.87%1657.40-4.13%19.6%5.402022/9/3034.660.1133.1167.77-4.23海晶20175.893.0410.97172.199.82%1489.92-5.88%20.1%5.742022/8/3134.55-0.8637.4572.00-3.77177.172.8813.00170.82-6.05%1317.73-7.61%20.2%5.512022/7/3135.411.3040.3675.775.30191.002.6517.69170.66-7.91%1146.90-7.83%20.7%5.512022/6/3034.114.0336.3670.4713.10181.262.9822.34148.80-19.42%976.25-7.82%22.9%4.962022/5/3130.08-1.9527.2957.37-2.54194.772.2026.60172.91-2.32%827.44-5.37%17.4%5.582022/4/3032.03-0.6627.8859.913.88191.062.7627.80162.14-13.97%654.53-6.15%19.8%5.402022/3/3132.69-3.5423.3456.03-10.35198.832.8022.09189.895.06%492.40-3.25%17.2%6.132022/2/2836.2313.5630.1466.3730.39175.841.6411.48135.61-4.74%302.51-7.83%26.7%4.842022/1/3122.6710.0613.3135.9810.01德州实华20188.152.6313.87166.90-10.19%166.90-10.19%13.6%5.382021/12/3112.61-2.7713.3625.97-5.55宜化+6大沽+10185.753.0419.22175.12-3.10%2076.35-1.29%7.2%5.652021/11/3015.38-1.0416.1431.52-3.32177.103.4811.48172.42-9.78%1901.23-1.11%8.9%5.562021/10/3116.42-1.3218.4234.8411.81165.713.0711.17145.80-21.62%1728.82-0.16%11.3%4.702021/9/3017.744.055.2923.03-1.51160.684.8410.23156.80-14.83%1583.012.43%11.3%5.062021/8/3113.691.3910.8524.542.16186.054.826.89181.82-6.51%1426.214.76%7.5%5.872021/7/3112.30-2.2010.0822.38-0.69187.253.596.21185.32-4.13%1244.396.64%6.6%5.982021/6/3014.50-2.788.5723.07-2.02浙江嘉化30193.162.4312.95184.66-4.57%1059.078.77%7.9%5.962021/5/3117.28-5.037.8125.09-7.74188.772.1021.60177.01-11.55%874.4112.08%9.8%5.712021/4/3022.31-9.5310.5232.83-21.40189.542.2424.71188.474.97%697.4020.24%11.8%6.082021/3/3131.84-2.1722.3954.23-3.81196.273.5722.90180.756.07%508.9427.08%17.6%5.832021/2/2834.0119.9624.0358.0431.00185.871.9614.46142.3781.65%328.1942.64%23.9%4.59 03现货成交：050001000015000200002500030000PVC华东贸易商成交量氯碱物产特产控股仁信双元中哲化轻象屿奥瑞萱道普利源一石玄德华东01000020000300004000050000PVC全国贸易成交量华南加总华东加总0500010000150002000025000PVC华南贸易商成交量申海昌鑫久塑特产明日塑道物产象屿广塑双元金丰泰玄德中船仁信诚裕丰中基蓝航中菁5500650075008500950000.511.522.533.542022/7/52022/8/52022/9/52022/10/52022/11/5PVC成交放量指标放量指标日成交PVC主连 04市场心态：500070009000110001300015000-100-50050100PVC市场心态指标看涨信号看跌信号看涨-看跌比例PVC主连 05沿海库存、表需：0102030405060PVC社库（华东+华南）2018201920202021202205101520253035PVC华东库存201720182019202020212022024681012141618PVC华南库存201720182019202020212022102030405060PVC周度表需（出口调整后）2019202020212022 06内地库存、预售：01020304050607080PVC上游预售量20182019202020212022020406080100PVC上游厂库20182019202020212022010203040506070PVC电石法厂库2018201920202021202202468101214PVC乙烯法厂库20182019202020212022 07盘面持仓成交：02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001600000PVC期货持仓量（单边计算）20172018201920202021202205000001000000150000020000002500000PVC期货成交量201720182019202020212022 08-30003006009001200150018007/17/318/309/2910/2911/2812/285年区间5年均值2201基差2301基差月差、基差：-200020040060080010001200140016009/110/110/3111/3012/305年区间5年均值2201-22052301-2305-400-1002005008001100140011/112/112/311/302/293/304/295年区间5年均值2105基差2205基差-200-10001002003004001/11/313/13/314/305年区间5年均值2105-21092205-2209-300-1001003005003/13/314/305/306/297/298/285年区间5年均值2109基差2209基差-10001002003004005006005/15/316/307/308/295年区间5年均值2109-22012209-2301 09550060006500700075002022-07-142022-08-142022-09-142022-10-142022-11-14价格总体走势华东电石法华南电石法华北电石法华东乙烯法华南乙烯法华北乙烯法现货价格：40006000800010000120001400016000华东电石法201920202021202240006000800010000120001400016000华南电石法201920202021202240006000800010000120001400016000华北电石法2019202020212022 010-10-505101520250200400600800100012001400乙电价差（左）电石法-乙烯法开工率差（右，领先45天）乙电价差：0200400600800100012001400华东乙电价差20182019202020212022-2000200400600800电石法华南-华东20182019202020212022-500-400-300-200-1000100200300电石法华北-华东20182019202020212022 01155006000650070