CIDOB notes internacionals 283. DECEMBER 2022CIDOB notes internacionals 283. DECEMBER 20221internacionalsCIDOB notesTHE WORLD IN 2023: Ten issues that will shape the international agendaText finalised on December 15, 2022. This Nota Internacional is the product of collective reflection by CIDOB’s research team in collaboration with EsadeGeo. Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Jordi Bacaria, Ana Ballesteros, Paula Barceló, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Victor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Carmen Claudín, Anna Estrada, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Matteo Garavoglia, Blanca Garcés, Patricia García-Durán, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Josep Mª Lloveras, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Viviane Ogou, Francesco Pasetti, Cristina Sala, Héctor Sánchez, Ángel Saz, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Marie Vandendriessche and Pere Vilanova, while the work of other CIDOB members was vital to its preparation. DECEMBER2022283Limits, both individual and collective, will be tested in 2023, whether it be in-flation, food security, the energy crisis, rising pressure on global supply chains and geopolitical competition, interna-tional security and governance systems breaking down, and the collective capa-city to respond to it all.The impacts of this permacrisis contri-bute directly to worsening household living conditions, which translate into rising social unrest and citizen protests, which will only increase. Cracks are widening and deepening – geopolitical, social and in the access to basic goods.The war in Ukraine has made it clear that the more risks are associated with a geostrategic confrontation, the more obsolete the collective security fra-meworks built to deal with them ap-pear. The mismatch between means, challenges and deterrence instruments worsens.In 2023, limits, both individual and collective, will be tested, whether it be inflation, food security, the energy crisis, rising pressure on global supply chains and geopolitical competition, international security and governance systems breaking down, and the collective capacity to respond to it all. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the unexpected scenario of 2022 that became decisive because it accelerated the erosion of the post-1945 order. However, the true scope and depth of the war’s global impact is only starting to become clear. We face not only a crisis of enormous dimensions, but a new process of structural change whose end remains unknowable.Like the white ball on a pool table, the war in Ukraine has given new momentum to various transformations and crises that were already underway, which then began colliding with each other, increasing the sense of global disorder and acceleration, of geopolitical uncertainty, and of social upheaval. Where will the balls triggered by the war in Ukraine stop? What level of disorder will prevail when they do? Of all the many crises, which could be the black ball that drops into the pocket too soon and produces a new existential threat? Above all, as continuous vulnerability and uncertainty become the new normal, what collective responses are being built?Like a Venn diagram, all these war-accelerated changes overlap and intertwine, some driven by necessity, others by new geopolitical logics. We face conflicts that intersect, and transitions that seemed to be working hand in hand to build a more sustainable world now momentarily colliding. That is why in ISSN: 2013-4428https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2022/283/en 2CIDOB notes internacionals 283. DECEMBER 2022CIDOB notes internacionals 283. DECEMBER 20222023 the permacrisis – word of the year 2022 – ranges from Western powers’ strategic disorientation to the vulnerability many of the world’s people feel due to the rising prices of basic products and the inability to protect common goods like food, energy and the climate. Fragility is pervasive, from collective security to individual survival.It remains to be seen if 2023 will be the year of escalation – intentional or accidental – or the time to cement small de-escalations that reduce geopolitical tensions and their economic impact. But 2022 has shown us that the greater the risks, the more obsolete are the regulatory frameworks and protection systems that should protect us against so much volatility.1. Strategic competition acceleratesThe war in Ukraine has accelerated the schism and confrontation between the major global powers. Arms have become another point of tension in US–China relations, joining trade, technological, economic and geostrategic competition. This will only be accentuated in 2023. But the world before us is not divided into two watertight blocs. Rather, a full-scale reconfiguration of allia