2022年三季报点评：动力+储能双驱动，业绩亮眼

EveEnergy(300014)EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·Battery1/8东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]3Q22Review：ExcellentearningsresultsthankstostronggrowthofbothpowerbatteryandstoredenergybatterybusinessBuy(Maintain)Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenue(RMBmn)16,90036,77572,105108,341Growth(YoY%)107%118%96%50%Netprofit(RMBmn)2,9063,8517,00310,038Growth(YoY%)76%33%82%43%EPS(RMB)1.532.033.695.29P/E(X)60.5945.7225.1417.54InvestmentThesisEve'searningsresultexceededtheupperlimitofperformanceprojectionandbeatthemarketexpectationslightly.In3Q2022,thecompanyachievedrevenueRMB9.4bn(+91%YoY,+14%QoQ),andnetincomeattributabletoparentRMB1.3bn(+81%YoY,+56%QoQ).Intermsoftheprofitability,itrecordedQ3grossmarginof17.3%(+1pctQoQ),netprofitmargin14%(+4pctQoQ).DuringQ1-Q3,ithasgeneratedrevenueRMB24.3bn(+112%YoY),netincomeattributabletoparentRMB2.67bn(+20%YoY).Eve'sQ3shipmentsofpowerbatteryandstoredenergybatteryincreasedbymorethan30%QoQ.Thecompanyshipped8-9GWhbatteriesinQ3,including2.5GWhternarylithiumbatteryandaround6GWhlithiumironphosphatebattery.Thestoredenergybatteryshipmentwasabout3GWh,upby50%QoQandaccountingfor35%ofthetotalshipments.WeforecastitsQ4shipmentstofurtherincreaseby20%QoQand2022annualshipmentswillreach30GWh(ternarylithiumbattery:10GWh;lithiumironphosphatebattery20GWh).Theannualshipmentsareexpectedtoreach65-70GWhin2023andshipmentsofstoredenergybatterymayriseto30GWh,withproportionoftotalshipmentsupto40%+.BenefitingfromthepullingofintegratorssuchasHuawei,SungrowPower,JiangsuLinyangEnergy,itslargeenergystorageproductswillbesoldtoChinaandtheUS;WiththedriverofAlphaESS’sdemand,itshouseholdenergystorageproductswillbemainlysoldtoEurope.ProfitofpowerbatteryandstoredenergybatteryrecoveredgraduallyinQ4andintegrationstrategysignificantlythickenedprofits.InQ3,theaveragepriceofternarypouchcelllithiumbatteryroseslightlyandlithiumironphosphatebatterystayedstable,withgrossmarginupto17%(+2pctQoQ)andnetprofitmarginupto5%+,contributingprofitofRMB350mn.Thegrossmarginofpowerbatteryandstoredenergybatterymayfurtherrepairin22Q4andcontributeRMB900-1,000/30,000mnin2022/2023.TraditionalbusinessdeclinedslightlyinQ3andotherincomewasrecognizedsignificantly.Consumerbatteriesremainedstableandweexpectthecompany'sQ3revenuesofcylindercelldroppedslightlyandrevenueof3Cbatteryremainedstable.RevenueoflithiumprimarybatterywasforecasttoreachRMB500mn,withagrossmarginof36%.Inaddition,therestofthecompany'sincomeisexpectedtobeRMB430mninQ3,upby181%significantly,mainlycomingfromgovernmentsubsidies.EarningsForecast&Rating:Giventhehigher-than-expectedQ3earningsresults,wereviseupthecompany's2022-2024netincomeforecasttoRMB3.85/7.00/10.04bnfrompreviousforecastRMB3.23/6.09/9.12bn,withaYoYgrowthof33%/82%/43%andcorrespondingtoaPEof46x/25x/18x.AsEve'sproductmixandtechnologyfurtherupgrades,wegivea2023PEof40xandtargetpriceofRMB147.5,maintaininga“BUY”rating.Risks:Lower-than-expectedsalesofelectricvehicles;sharpfluctuationofmaterialprices.[Table_PicQuote]PricePerformance[Table_Base]MarketDataClosingprice(RMB)92.7252-weekRange(RMB)52.45/152.90P/B(X)8.78Freefloatingmarketcap(RMBmn)170,580.85Totalmarketcap(RMBmn)176,055.69BasicDatadataBVPS(RMB)10.56Liabilities/assets(%)66.30TotalIssuedShares(mn)1,898.79Sharesoutstanding(mn)1,839.74Relatedreports《亿纬锂能(300014)：电池产能扩张提速，加码锂+负极一体化布局》2022-09-28《亿纬锂能(300014)：盈利拐点明确，全年出货预计翻番增长》2022-08-26SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesDuohongZeng(曾朵红),QiaoyanRuan(阮巧燕)andSiyaoYue(岳斯瑶).[Table_Author]25November2022ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 亿纬锂能（300014）证券研究报告·公司深度·电池2/8东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]2022年三季报点评：动力+储能双驱动，业绩亮眼买入（维持）[Table_EPS]盈利预测与估值2021A2022E2023E2024E营业总收入（百万元）16,90036,77572,105108,341同比107%118%96%50%归属母公司净利润（百万元）2,9063,8517,00310,038同比76%33%82%43%每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股）1.532.033.695.29P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄）60.5945.7225.1417.54投资要点Q3业绩超预告上限，略好于市场预期。Q3收入94亿元，同环比+91%/+14%，归母净利13亿元，同环比+81%/+56％，扣非归母9.8亿元，同环比+39%/+29%；毛利率17.3%，环比+1pct，归母净利率14%，环比+4pct。前三季度收入243亿元，同比+112%；归母净利26.7亿元，同比+20%，扣非净利21.8亿元，同比+2%。Q3动力储能电池环增30%+，储能需求旺盛上修预期。公司Q3出货8-9GWh，其中三元2.5GWh，铁锂6GWh左右。Q3储能预计3GWh左右，环比大增50%，占总出货占比提升至35%。Q4我们预计出货环比再增20%，全年出货30GWh（三元10GWh，铁锂20GWh，其中储能出货上修至10GWh）。明年出货我们预计65-70GWh（铁锂45GWh+，三元软包10GWh，三元方形+大圆柱10GWh），其中储能出货预计30GWh，占比提升至40%+，大储主要受益于华为、阳光电源、林洋能源等集成商拉动，产品销售至国内及美国，户储主要受益于沃太需求拉动，产品多销往欧洲。动力+储能电池盈利逐步恢复，一体化布局大幅增厚利润。Q3三元软包均价小幅提升，铁锂电池价格稳定，毛利率提升至17%，环增2pct，净利率5%以上，贡献3.5亿元左右利润，单wh净利提升至0.04元/wh。Q4动力储能毛利率预计进一步修复，全年贡献9-10亿元利润，23年有望贡献30亿元+净利润。同时Q3兴华锂业按49%股权比例确认投资收益，且股权比例追溯至Q2，预计贡献投资收益2亿元+。Q3传统业务微降，思摩尔环比下滑，其他收益大幅确认。消费电池维持稳定。我们预计公司Q3圆柱电池受需求影响，收入环比略降，小3C电池收入基本稳定，合计收入16亿元左右，毛利率20%+；锂原电池预计Q3收入5亿元，毛利率36%左右，合计贡献1.5-1.8亿元利润。思摩尔预计贡献投资收益2.3亿元，同环比下降42%/16%。此外，公司其他收益4.3亿元，环比大增181%，主要为政府补助。盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到公司Q3业绩超预期，我们上修22-24年归母净利润至38.5/70.0/100.4亿元（原预期32.3/60.9/91.2亿元），同增33%/82%/43%，对应46/25/18xPE，考虑到公司产品结构+技术进一步升级，给予23年40倍PE，对应目标价147.5元，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：电动车销量不及预期，上游原材料价格大幅波动。[Table_PicQuote]股价走势[Table_Base]市场数据收盘价(