宏观经济 | 2022年10月31日 分析师认证和其他重要披露信息参见尾页. 1 报告摘要分  主要发达国家滞胀压力不减，但央行加息年底前可能减速：欧美9月通胀压力仍在高位，但大幅收紧的货币政策导致经济下行压力加大并加剧对金融风险的担忧。我们预计美联储在11月份将加息75个点，但可能暗示加息步伐在之后放缓以评估收紧效果。不过，预计美国通胀将到明年年中才会实质性缓解，联储会在明年上半年继续收紧。随着货币紧缩进入缓行期，加上英国财政重回审慎，全球利率的上行压力将有所回落。我们维持未来数月2年和10年美国债收益率中位数在4.3%-4.5%和 3.8%-4.0%的预测。但政策路径仍存不确定性，市场对政策判断的分歧加大，利率波动预计仍较高。  9月和三季度中国经济持续复苏但消费乏力，短期政策预计继续稳增长。三季度经济增速反弹超预期，得益于强劲的工业产出和出口的韧性。汽车，装备制造业和高技术制造业仍是行业亮点。基建投资和制造业投资的强劲抵消了房地产投资的下滑。但由于区域疫情的影响，居民生活和出行受限，消费与服务业整体表现偏弱。预计疫情将继续影响经济复苏，我们将全年经济增长预期从之前的4.8%下调至3.9%。二十大延续高质量增长的政策基调，强调推进中国式现代化，肯定防疫方式和成绩。短期预计政策继续稳增长稳地产，关注十二月中央经济会议的政策布局。  人民币兑美元汇率继续偏弱，但相对其他货币仍较坚挺：人民币兑美元汇率近期显著走弱，一度超过7.3。强美元和中国经济的下行压力是近期人民币兑美元走弱的主要原因。但强劲的贸易顺差仍支撑人民币一篮子汇率维持坚挺。我们预计中国人民银行将继续容忍人民币兑美元汇率的双向弹性，避免汇率水平大幅偏离基本面。但同时央行可能利用政策工具防止人民币汇率的过度波动。持续的强美元意味着相对弱的人民币。我们预计人民币对美元汇率近期可能在7-7.3区间徘徊。 下月重点关注：国际数据方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，联储11月议息会议以及全球市场的流动性。国内宏观经济方面，关注经济活动数据，以及相关的稳增长和行业政策。 Main points:  Monetary tightening might enter a slower phase in advanced economies despite persistent stagflation pressure. Inflationary pressure remained high in September while sharply tightened monetary policy led to slower growth and heightened concerns over financial stability. We expect the Fed to raise rates by 75 points at its November meeting before resorting to a slower pace of rate hikes in December in order to gauge the impact of front-loaded tightening. We do not expect inflation to ease meaningfully until 2H 2023F, implying more rate hikes in 1H 2023F. Upward pressure on global rates may ease if the pace of monetary tightening slows and fiscal tightening in the UK is re-established. We maintain our forecasts for 2-year and 10-year US bond yields at 4.3-4.5% and 3.8%-4.0%, respectively. However, hightened uncertainty over future monetary policy means continued high volatility in global interest rates.  Domestic recovery in China continued in 3Q22 and September; but consumption remains soft. We expect near-term policy to focus on stabilising growth. The recent rebound in growth beat market expectations in 3Q22, helped by strong industrial output and resilient exports. Auto, equipment manufacturing, and high-tech manufacturing remain the bright spots. Heavy investment in infrastructure and manufacturing offset weakness in real estate investment. However, people’s mobility was hindered by local Covid outbreaks. Consumption and services were soft. The impact of Covid restrictions on the economy will persist, in our view. Thus, we lower our full-year economic growth forecast from 4.8% to 3.9%. The 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China remains focused on high-quality growth, promoting the goal of Chinese-style modernization, and affirming the virtues of the Zero Covid policy. Policy in the near-term is likely to remain focused on stabilizing growth. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is the next policy highlight.  USD/CNY fluctuated at recent highs, but the renminbi held firm against other currencies. The renminbi weakened against the US dollar recently, surpassing 7.3 at one point. The strong US dollar and soft growth were the main drivers of renminbi weakness. However, the strong trade surplus continued to support the renminbi index. We expect the PBoC to continue to tolerate increased currency flexibility while avoiding large misalignments. In our view, the PBoC is likely to use policy tools to reduce currency volatility. A persistently strong US dollar implies a relatively weak renminbi. We expect the USD/RMB will fluctuate in the 7.0-7.3 range. Data releases and events in September. On the international front, our focus is inflation and employment data from Europe and the US, the November FOMC meeting, and global market liquidity. Domestically, our focus is economic data and policy supporting growth, property, and industrial upgrades. 崔历 (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 谢炫 (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com 建银国际证券 ｜宏观研究 宏观月报: 2022年10月 –国内复苏继续受疫情影响，联储加息有望进入缓行 Monthly Economic Data Wrap – Oct 2022: Covid continues to weigh on the Chinese recovery; Fed set to pivot to slower pace of rate hikes 宏观经济 | 2022年10月31日 建银国际证券 2 海外宏观和利率走势 – 高通胀持续，经济危机的担忧加剧,联储加息步伐未来可能放缓 发达国家核心通胀压力高位持续...：虽然主要央行大幅提高利率，但是9月数据显示核心通胀同比增速在英美欧不降反升（图1）。美国9月通胀数据超预期，核心通胀同比升6.6%，创1982年8月以来新高。服务通胀包括住房和医疗等是核心通胀上升的主要推手。而随着供应链压力的缓解和需求的减弱，核心商品价格继续下降。欧元区和英国的总体通胀在9月都上升到同比10%左右。食品和能源是通胀压力的主要来源。但是非能源商品和服务的价格也在快速上涨，核心通胀也同比上行。气象预报显示即将到来的冬天是个暖冬，有助舒缓欧洲对天然气和电力的需求，能源相关的通胀也许能够得以一定的缓和。但食品和核心通胀压力可能持续。 ....但经济下行压力加大：由于利率的不断提高，英美欧的主要经济运行指标持续下行。美国强于预期的三季度增长都来自净出口，而内需在三季度几乎没有增长。居民消费的增速从二季度的2%放缓至1.4%，主要依赖于服务消费恢复。地产投资严重下滑，拖累投资。最新的经济运行数据显示地产和制造业继续走弱。三季度净出口表现反映俄乌局势胶着导致美国大宗商品出口持续强劲和进口环比的大幅下降。但全球经济增速持续放缓下，三季度优异的净出口表现大概率也无法持续，经济增速估计继续承压。 欧盟和英国经济受到高能源价格的冲击最为明显，德国的ZEW当前商业状况指数持续恶化，显示欧盟经济可能已经在第三季度进入衰退（图2）。英国的政治危机随着Liz Truss减税方案的彻底撤销和新首相Sunak的上台得到缓解。有了前车之鉴，Sunak的财政政策可能偏紧缩，媒体报道新财政大臣可能在11月宣布将近500亿英镑的财政紧缩政策，有助于减少通胀和利率的上行压力，但紧缩政策也预计加深英国经济的短期低迷。 滞胀压力