2022年中报点评：经营稳健，改革成效渐显

HaidilaoInternationalHolding(06862.HK)EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·TravelandLeisure1/6东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]1H22Review:operationsremainsoundandsolidastheeffectsofreformstarttomanifestBuy(Maintain)Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenue(RMBmn)41,11235,74538,58443,206Growth(YoY%)43.68%-13.05%7.94%11.98%Netprofit(RMBmn)-4,163-1041,5812,806Growth(YoY%)-1446.13%-1622.38%77.51%EPS(RMB)-0.75-0.020.280.50P/E(X)--5430InvestmentThesisHaidilaodeliveredsolid1H22revenueandcouldhaverealizedslightprofitifexcludingthelossesofrestaurantclose-down.In2022H1,HaidilaohasrealizedrevenueofRMB16.764bn(-16.6%yoy),grossmarginof58.0%(+0.3pctyoy)andmaintainedstableexpenditure.Thecompany'snetprofitdeclinedby381.7%yoyto-RMB270mn,becauseof1)aone-timelossofapproximatelyRMB310mnduetodisposaloflong-termassetsunderthe"WoodpeckerPlan";2)ongoingexpensessuchasrents,D&Aandstaffcostevenifrestaurantswereshutdownordine-inservicewassuspendedduetothepandemicresurgenceinmainlandChinafromMarchtoMay.Excludingthelossesresultedfromrestaurantclose-down,weestimatethatthecompanycouldhaverealizedprofitofapproximatelyRMB40mnin2022H1.1H22tableturnoverwasunderpressureandASPincreaseinTier-1citiesdrovetheoverallASPimprovement.1)Numberofrestaurants:Thenumberofrestaurantsin2022H1was1435,with18newly-openedand26closedduetothe"WoodpeckerPlan".ThenumberofHaidilao'srestaurantsinTier-1cities/Tier-2cities/Tier-3andbelowcities/overseaswas238/521/551/125,respectively;upby-10/-1/-8/+11comparedtotheendof2021.2)Tableturnoverrate:Tableturnoverrate(overall)in2022H1was2.9times/day,whilethetableturnoverrateofsamerestaurantwas3.0times/day(-6.25%yoy),withtier1cities(3.1times/day)slightlybetterthanTier2andTier3andbelow(3.0times/day).3)ASP:IncreasingASPinTier-1citiesdrovethereboundofHaidilao'soverallASP.The1H22ASPinmainlandChinastoreswasRMB109.1(+1.7%yoy);ASPinTier-1/Tier-2/Tier-3andbelowcitieswasRMB117.4/104.3/97.8(+2.2%/-0.3%/-1.2%yoy),respectively.Theeffectsof"woodpeckerplan"reformgraduallymanifest,andthe"hardbone"store-restartingplanwillbelaunchedatanappropriatetime.1)Thankstoregion-basedmanagementsystembroughtupinthe"woodpeckerplan",therestaurantqualityin1H22hasimproved.SinceMay2022,Haidilao'soperatingindicatorshavecontinuedtoimprovemonthbymonth.Julyisthe‘rushhour’forhotpotconsumptionsothattheoveralltableturnoverrateishigherinJulythanthatinJune,upby~115%yoy.2)Atthesametime,thecompanyintendstorestartsomeofthestoresthatmeettheopeningstandard.Wearecautiouslyoptimisticaboutthe"hardbone"store-restartingplanasthepandemicsituationisstilluncertain.EarningsForecast&Rating：Consideringtheoperatingrecovery,wemaintainourpreviousforecastandexpectthecompany'snetincometobeRMB-100mn/1.58bn/2.81bnin2022/2023/2024,withayoygrowthof1622.4%and77.5%in2023and2024.ThecurrentsharepriceimpliesP/Eat54x/30xfor2023/2024.Wemaintaina"Buy"rating.Risks:Recurringpandemic;riskofbrandaging;lower-than-expectedmanagementreformeffectivenessandbusinessrecovery.[Table_PicQuote]PricePerformance[Table_Base]MarketDataClosingprice(HKD)17.4652-weekRange(HKD)10.00/34.30P/B(X)12.30MarketCap(HKDmn)97,322.04BasicDatadataBVPS(HKD)1.42Liabilities/assets(%)71.71TotalIssuedShares(mn)5,574.00Sharesoutstanding(mn)5,574.00[Table_Report]Relatedreports《海底捞(06862.HK:)：2022半年度盈利预警点评：收入合预期，利润表现优于市场预期》2022-08-16《海底捞(06862.HK:)：2021年报点评：门店调整致业绩承压，战略聚焦再出发》2022-03-25SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesJunTang(汤军)andYuzheLi(李昱哲).[Table_Author]5September2022ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 海底捞(06862.HK)证券研究报告·公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS)2/6东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]2022年中报点评：经营稳健，改革成效渐显买入（维持）盈利预测与估值2021A2022E2023E2024E营业总收入（百万元）41,11235,74538,58443,206同比43.68%-13.05%7.94%11.98%归属母公司净利润（百万元）-4,163-1041,5812,806同比-1446.13%-1622.38%77.51%每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股）-0.75-0.020.280.50P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄）--5430投资要点2022H1营收稳健，疫情受损下若剔除门店关停损失或实现盈利。2022年H1公司营收167.64亿（yoy-16.6%），毛利率58.0%（yoy+0.3pct），费用投入稳健，其中员工成本占比总收入同比-0.4pct至35.2%，租金、折摊等费用率同比相对稳健，归母净利-2.7亿元（yoy-381.7%），亏损主因在于：1）因啄木鸟计划处置长期资产一次性损失约3.1亿元；2）中国大陆2022年3-5月新冠疫情反复，部分餐厅停止营业/暂停堂食，仍有租金、折摊固定开支及员工成本产生。若剔除公司因门店关停带来损失，我们预计公司将实现盈利，净利润约4000万元。2022H1翻台率持续承压，一线城市客单上涨带动整体客单价提升。1）门店数：2022H1门店数1435家，上半年公司新开业18家餐厅，因啄木鸟计划关闭26家，其中分线级城市来看，一线、二线、三线及以下城市、中国内地以外门店数分别达到238、521、551、125家，分别较2021年年底-10/-1/-8/+11家；2）翻台率：2022H1整体翻台率为2.9次/天，除内地以外门店各线城市略有下降；同店翻台率达到3.0次/天，与21H1同口径相比下降6.25%，一线城市表现略优，同店翻台率达到3.1次/天，表现优于二线、三线及以下城市（3.0次/天）；3）客单价：公司一线城市客单价提升带动公司整体客单价有所回升，2022H1中国门店整体客单价为109.1元（yoy+1.7%），其中一线/二线/三线及以下城市客单价分别为117.4/104.3/97.8元（yoy+2.2%/-0.3%/-1.2%）。“啄木鸟计划”改革成效渐显，“硬骨头”门店重启计划择机启动。1）2022年上半年受益于啄木鸟计划提出的区域化管理体系，餐厅质量有所提升，公司努力从顾客满意度及员工努力度两个方向解决问题，同时公司通过推出新品等多元化方式吸引顾客，2022年5月以来公司经营指标环比持续改善，7月进入火锅暑期消费高峰，整体翻台率方面环比高于6月，约为去年同期115%。2）同时，公司打算重启部分符合开业条件“硬骨头”门店，由于疫情仍存不确定性，我们持谨慎乐观态度。盈利预测与投资评级：考虑疫情持续反复之下啄木鸟计划带来经营复苏等因素，我们维持此前预测，预计公司2022-24年归母净利润为-1.0、15.8、28.1亿元，2023-24年同比增速1622.4%、77.5%，当前股价对应2023-24年动态PE54x、30x，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：疫情持续反复风险；品牌老化风险；管理改革成效、经营复苏不及市场预期风险。[Table_PicQuote]股价走