Li Auto（02015.HK） Equity Research·Company Research·Automobile (HS) 1 / 6 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Li L9 is expected to become a top-selling model in the new energy luxury car market! Buy（Maintain） Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 270.10 576.17 1297.71 2214.99 Growth (YoY %) 186% 113% 125% 71% Net profit (RMB mn) -3.21 3.61 33.84 99.18 Growth (YoY %) / / 838% 193% Diluted EPS (RMB) -0.16 0.17 1.64 4.80 P/E (X) / 668.00 71.23 24.31 Investment Thesis ◼ Event: On June 21, 2022, Li Auto officially announced its second model Li L9, which targets smart flagship SUV market for family customers, with retail price of RMB459,800. The car reservation has started and will end on July 16, and deliveries are supposed to begin by the end of August. ◼ Flagship configuration meets the needs of family customers for large space + comfort + entertainment + security: 1) Flagship space comfort: Li L9 is designed to be a 5218mm long, full-sized flagship SUV with three rows of six seats, 3105mm wheelbase, large interior space; electric and heated seats for all three rows, ventilation feature and Spa-Grade 10-point massage function for the first two row seats. (2) Flagship extended-range electric system and chassis control system: Li L9 is equipped with intelligent air springs and continuous damping controller to ensure ride comfort; with 44.5kwh battery pack and self-developed 1.5T four-cylinder range extender, Li L9’s CLTC battery life/range under comprehensive working conditions is 215/1315km respectively; dual motors with maximum power capacity of 330kw, 0-100km/h acceleration time of 5.3s, as well as 3.5kw external discharge function. 3) Flagship smart cockpit: innovative 3D spatial interaction from five screens, large size HUD + safe driving touch-bar screen to ensure driving safety; 15.7-inch center control screen & co-pilot entertainment display & rear entertainment display with 4D immersive audio and video system. (4) Flagship safety protection: Li L9 is equipped with Li AD Max smart driving system, including one 128-line LIDAR & six 8-megapixel cameras, other cameras/millimeter wave radar/ultrasonic sensors, two domain controllers with Nvidia Orin-X with a total computing power of 508 Tops, high-strength steel-aluminum body & battery thermal runaway protection and so on to elevate driving safety. ◼ We expect the steady-state monthly sales of Li L9 is likely to be over 10,000, and to challenge 15,000 units. Li L9 continues the positioning of Li ONE, targeting the niche market of family customers, further solidifying the company’s brand development. Annual sales of the car segment priced over RMB400,000 has exceeded 1.2 million units, which is expected to further expand as domestic consumption upgrades in the future. Li L9, relying on its precise market positioning & excellent product performance, is expected to achieve a boost in its sales. With the excellent product strength, Li L9 is benchmarking against 1) Audi Q5/BMW X3/Benz GLC and other medium-sized SUVs; 2) BMW X5/Audi Q7/Benz GLE and other large SUVs; 3) Macan/Benz GLS/BMW X7/Audi Q8 and other luxury SUVs; 4) Buick GL8/Toyota Alfa and other commercial MPVs. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We maintain the company’s 2022-2024 revenue forecast at RMB 57.6/129.8/221.5 bn, and net profit at RMB 0.36/3.38/9.92 bn, corresponding to PE ratios at 668/71/24x respectively. We maintain "Buy" rating since we are optimistic that the Li L9+ONE combination will contribute to the company's high sales growth in 2022 and a variety of follow-up new models are expected to bring continuous growth in 2023-2024. ◼ Risks: Lower-than-expected development of new energy vehicle industry; unstable supply chains of key components such as chips/battery; tightened software OTA upgrade policy; lower-than-expected new models promotion. Price Movement [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (HKD) 137.30 180.20 63.35 366.00 30.70 52-week Range (HKD) 69.10/143.10 103.50/242.40 53.15/99.40 297.00/636.93 18.32/33.83 P/B (X) 6.84 7.46 5.41 3.57 2.91 Market Cap (HKD mn) 230,988.54 992,091.40 221,968.53 4,582,637.04 298071.37 Basic Data data BVPS(RMB) 20.07 24.16 Liabilities/assets (%) 36.99 47.55 Total Issued Shares (mn) 2,038.18 6,183.75 Shares outstanding (mn) 1,682.36 5,505.50 [Table_Report] Related reports 《理想汽车-W(02015.HK:)：Q1业绩符合我们预期，盈利能力持续提升》 2022-05-11 《理想汽车-W(02015.HK:)：L9爆款可期，飞轮旋转模式开启！》 2022-04-14 《理想汽车-W(02015.HK:)：Q4业绩转正，毛利率表现持续靓丽》 2022-02-28 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Duohong Zeng(曾朵红)z, Xili Huang(黄细里) and Huibing Yang(杨惠冰). [Table_Author] 7 July 2022 Research Analyst Research Analyst Shirui Ouyang Xxx (852) 3892 3120 ouyangshi