请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021年11月15日 城投净融资大幅减少，近期主体评级下调多于往年 ——2021年10月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 顾沈蓉 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，10月信用债发行规模较上月有所下降，共发行8851.89亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额为513.02亿元。 净融资方面，10月份信用债共实现净融资677.69亿元，环比变化不大；建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，共实现净融资838.45亿元；AAA级主体信用债净融资由负转正至389.47亿元，其余级别主体净融资均环比恶化；民营企业净融资仍为负，但降幅收窄；城投企业净融资环比大幅减少至623.66亿元，但本月信用债净融资的增加仍主要由城投债贡献。 到期压力方面，未来6个月将有40320.98亿元信用债到期，未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，但环比有所增加。计算机行业未来到期压力显著高于过去12个月平均水平；综合、建筑装饰、计算机、医药生物行业未来到期压力环比明显上行。分企业性质来看，民营企业债券未来到期压力显著低于过去12个月平均水平，且环比小幅下降。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债与非城投债未来到期压力均低于过去12个月平均水平，但两者均环比小幅增加。 到期收益率方面，10月信用债二级市场到期收益率总体运行稳定，与上月末水平相比变化不大。 信用利差方面，10月各行业不同评级产业债信用利差总体边际收窄，但低等级房地产行业和煤炭行业信用利差均明显走阔；除化工行业外，各行业高等级产业债信用利差均处于历史中等或较低水平。值得关注的是，从国内房地产信用利差数据来说，截至 10月底，恒大集团等个别企业债务问题并没有给房地产行业债券带来非常大的负面冲击。城投债信用利差整体收窄；弱资质城投债信用利差收窄显著，但仍处于历史高位。 展望未来，11月地方政府专项债供给压力会继续对信用债一级市场发行形成影响。此外，可密切关注入冬后国内新冠疫情防控形势、生产性物价超预期上行、房地产行业融资政策变化以及各行业基本面等因素可能对信用债二级市场收益率产生的影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021年9月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 2.《2021年9月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.10.15 3.《2021年8月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.9.15 4.《2021年8月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.9.15 5.《2021年7月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.8.13 6.《2021年7月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.8.13 7.《2021年6月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.7.15 8.《2021年6月信用债市场运行报告》，2021.7.15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets November 15th, 2021 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, the scale of China's corporate bond issuances decreased compared to the previous month in October, which was about 885.189 billion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuance was 51.302 billion yuan in October. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuances was 67.769 billion yuan in October, which was close to the previous month. The increase in net financing of the construction industry was the largest, which was 83.845 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA-rated corporate bonds increased to 38.947 billion yuan, while the net financing of the rest of the issuers (AA minus-rated to AA plus-rated) all deteriorated. The increase in net financing of private-owned enterprises was still negative, yet the decrease of which narrowed. The increase in net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds declined significantly to 62.366 billion yuan, yet the increase in net financing of corporate bonds was still mainly contributed by LGFV bonds. In terms of maturing pressure, 4032.098 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months at the end of October, the overall maturity pressure of corporate bond market is apparently lower than the average maturity pressure of the previous 12 months, and is also higher than that of the end of previous month. From the perspective of industries, the computer industry’s bond maturity pressure was significantly higher than the average pressure of the previous 12 months; the comprehensive, construction, computer and pharmaceutical industry’s bond maturity pressure was higher than that of the end of September. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers was significantly lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months, and decreased slightly month on month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturing pressure of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds was apparently lower than the average pressure of the previous 12 months, yet increased slightly compared to last month. In terms of yield to maturity, the yields of China’s corporate bonds remained stable, which didn’t change much compared to the previous month at the end of October. In terms of credit spreads, the overall credit spreads of all rated industry bonds were marginally narrowed in October, while the credit spreads of lower-rated real estate and coal industry bonds were widened. Except for the chemical industry, the credit spreads of high-rated industrial bonds in all industries were at a historically medium or low level. From the perspective of the domestic credit spread of the real estate industry, The debt risk events of real estate companies such as Evergrande Group have not brought a large negative impact on the real estate industry bonds till the end of October. The credit spreads The net financing of LGFV decreased significantly, the downgrade of issuer credit ratings increased compared to previous years ——October 2021 China's corporate bond market operation report Author: Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, Gu Shenrong E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn