ѣളቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻䈹ḛ2021ᒪпᆙᓜᣛ઀ ᳞2021ᒪ഑ᆙᓜѣളቅᗤ㔅㩛ؗᗹ᤽ᮦᣛ઀ Online Survey of Micro-and-small Enterprises (OSOME): Quarterly Report (2021Q3) and Confidence Index (2021Q4) ्ӢཝᆜԷѐཝᮦᦤ⹊ガѣᗹ Center for Enterprise Research, Peking University ्Ӣཝᆜѣള立Ր〇ᆜ䈹ḛѣᗹ Institute of Social Science Survey, Peking University 㲸㲷䳼ഘ⹊ガ䲘 Ant Group Research Institute 㖇୼䬬㺂 MYbank 2021ᒪ10ᴾ October 2021 䈹ḛᣛ઀৸ф㘻 ᕖᲉ⌘Ƚᆊ⏑ȽᶞᄋለȽ⧁޿޿Ƚᢵᆆ⨰ȽԱᱬᆽȽࡎ⺋Ƚ䱾、᜖ ᶄᥥ঄Ƚ⧁㣩Ƚ傢Ᲊፕ ᢶᵥ᭥ᤷ 㲸㲷䳼ഘ⹊ガ䲘Ƚ㲸㲷䳼ഘᇘᡭ։僂਀ᵹⴀؓ䳒䜞Ƚ㖇୼䬬㺂 ᪎㾷 㔝䘔㔣഑⅗ਇᐹɅѣളቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻䈹ḛᆙᓜᣛ઀Ɇδ2020ᒪпᆙᓜࡦ2021ᒪӂᆙᓜε੄θ2021ᒪ9ᴾθ्ӢཝᆜԷѐཝᮦᦤ⹊ガѣᗹȽ्Ӣཝᆜѣള立Ր〇ᆜ䈹ḛѣᗹф㲸㲷䳼ഘ⹊ガ䲘Ƚ㖇୼䬬㺂㔝㔣䙐䗽㓵р䈹⹊ᒩਦੇ⍱䏹ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻䳅ᵰਇ᭴䰤ভθ᧘ḛቅᗤ㔅㩛ᴶ᯦᛻߫Ⱦ㔅䗽њઞᰬ䰪Ⲻᣋ᭴θާ䇗ഔ᭬ᴿ᭾ᆑভ14567ԳȾṭᵢѣⲺቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᒩൽࡑ䙖ቧѐውփ㓜4.6Ѡδу੡㔅㩛㘻ᵢӰεθ ࠼ ݻ։ ⧦ ֒ ެѰ ੮ 㓩 ቧ ѐ ѱ ࣑ ߑⲺ 䀈 㢨 Ⱦቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᰘᱥᡇള立Ր㔅⎄ਇኋⲺ∑㓼㹶㇗ૂѣඐ࣑䠅θੂᰬഖެ㿺′′′′㙂ޭᴿ⢯⇀Ⲻ㜼ᕧᙝȾ ะӄᵢ⅗䈹⹊Ⲻ࠼᷆θᡇളቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻൞2021ᒪᅴпᆙᓜⲺ㔅㩛⣬ᘷȽ᭵ᆔ᭥ᤷ㩳൦᛻߫Ƚᮦᆍौ䖢ශȽሯᵠᶛⲺ人ᵕᅀᯯ䶘੾⧦ԛс⢯⛯φ 1Ƚቅᗤ㔅㩛᮪։㔅㩛⣬߫ᤷ㔣ഔ᳌Ⱦ⴮∊ржᆙᓜθቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᵢᆙᓜ㩛ѐ᭬ޛ਀⧦䠇⍷㔪ᤷ⣬߫㔝㔣ੇླθռ࡟⏜⦽ᴿᡶс┇Ⱦԛ⯡᛻ࢃⲺ2019ᒪੂᵕ֒Ѱ∊䖹ะ߼θ㔅㩛ᚘགྷ∊ׁ儎ӄ䗽ৱ഑ѠᆙᓜⲺᒩൽٲȾѠࡡคᐸૂ൦॰਍ࡦ⯡᛻ૂ⚴᛻Ⲻθᱴ⧦࠱ߨ䍕䶘ᖧଃȾ 2Ƚᐸ൰䴶≸у䏩ૂᡆᵢু࣑ԃᱥቅᗤ㔅㩛Ⱁ⛯Ⱦфржᆙᓜ㊱ղθദᢦቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻Ⲻѱ㾷ഖ㍖ԃᱥᐸ൰䴶≸⯨ᕧૂᡆᵢⲺু࣑Ⱦ࠼㺂ѐᶛⵁθ䴶≸у䏩ૂ㔅㩛ᡆᵢੂᰬሯ⎾䍯ᵃࣗѐᶺᡆћጱ᥇ᡎχሯ୼ѐᵃࣗѐ㙂䀶θᶛ㠠ᐸ൰䴶≸Ⲻু࣑ᴪѰシ࠰χ 㙂㔅㩛ᡆᵢࡏᱥᔰᆄȽࣖᐛ࡬䙖ѐ਀ߒ᷍⢝⑊ѐࢃᖉⲺᴶཝⰑ⛯Ⱦ 3Ƚ᢬ᤷ᭵ᆔሯቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻㾼ⴌ∊ׁфрᆙᓜᤷᒩθᲤ᜖ᙝⲺい᭬᭥ᤷ᭵ᆔ㾼ⴌ∊ׁ䖹ެԌ᭵ᆔᴪ儎Ⱦ਺亯᢬ᤷ᭵ᆔሯቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻Ⲻ㾼ⴌぁᓜ൞уੂ㓝ࡡคᐸȽуੂ㺂ѐȽ㿺′′′′ૂ㔅㩛′′′′ᕅҁ䰪䜳ᴿᡶуੂȾ“ރࠅᡆᵢ”ૂ“どውどቧѐ”њ㊱᭵ᆔ൞жӂ㓵คᐸⲺ㾼ⴌ᛻߫䖹ླθռ“い᭬᭥ᤷ”㊱᭵ᆔ൞䶔жӂ㓵คᐸⲺ㾼ⴌ⦽ᴪ儎χޢਮ࡬Էѐ䖹Ѡ։ᡭᴪཐӡ਍ࡦ᢬ࣟ᭵ᆔȾ 4Ƚቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ሯᒩਦශԷѐ䘆㩛Ⲻ⋱⨼ཐᤷ↙ੇ䇺ԭθሯᐸ൰ⴇ㇗ᴿᡶᵕᖻȾ൞ሯᒩਦශԷѐᴿ᧛䀜ᡌҼ䀙Ⲻቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ѣθ䎻䗽йᡆⲺቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻䇚ѰᒩਦශԷѐᴿᡶ᭯஺ᡌԄᶛ⋗ᴿᑜᶛദᢦȾቧሯᐸ൰ⴇ㇗䜞䰞Ⲻᵕᖻ㙂䀶θ㓜жঀ਍䇵ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᑂᵑᐸ൰ⴇ㇗䜞䰞㔝㔣“ㆶौԷѐȽѠ։ᡭⲺⲱ䇦Ƚ਎ᴪȽ⌞䬶ᢁ㔣ૂ⍷ぁ”θެ⅗ᱥ“ᢉ⹪㺂ѐයᯣȽ॰ตࢨ࠼ૂ൦ᯯؓᣚ”“ћ䘓⌋㺂Ѱ߈ٽᵹȽ׫࠱িᢉ”ԛ᭥ᤷቅᗤ୼ᡭૂቅᗤԷѐਇኋȾ 5Ƚቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻㷃䍺䴶≸фржᆙᓜᙱ։ᤷᒩθቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻⧦࠰䜞޻࠼ौθ঩ޢਮ࡬Էѐ㷃䍺䴶≸с┇θѠ։ᡭᴿᡶрॽθжᯯ䶘։⧦ࢃ㘻ф立㷃᮪։Ⲻ⯨ᕧ⧦䊗䖹Ѱж㠪θਜжᯯ䶘࠮ᱴཝ䠅㿺′′′′څቅⲺቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻丝ᙝ䖹ᕰȾ㠠ᴿ䍺䠇ᡌ⮏ᆎ᭬ⴀᡆѰᴶѱ㾷㷃䍺⑖䚉θ㓵р䍭v᜾ਇ䠃㾷Ⱦ൞⯡᛻᧝࡬䖹ླⲺཝ㜂Ქсθቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻㷃䍺䴶≸Ⲻ∊ׁૂ䠇仓䜳ᴿᡶᨆॽθቚԛжӂ㓵คᐸૂ࡬䙖ѐᴪѰシ࠰Ⱦжᇐぁᓜрᗍⴀӄ⧦䠇⍷᭯஺θᵢᆙᓜቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ㆯ䍺Ⲻᴶѱ㾷⑖䚉Ѱ㠠ᴿ䍺䠇ᡌ⮏ᆎ᭬ⴀθ൞⭩䈭䍭 vⲺቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ѣθ㓵рᯯᕅԃᱥ⭩䈭ૂ㧭ᗍ䍭vⲺѱ㾷䙊ᖺȾ 6Ƚቅ ᗤ 㔅 㩛 㘻 ሯ2021ᒪ഑ᆙᓜⲺ㔅㩛ؗᗹ᤽ᮦؓᤷะᵢ҆㿸θޢਮ࡬Էѐؗᗹᴿᡶс䲃θѠ։ᡭؗᗹ䖹Ѱどᇐθᱴ⧦ཝ䠅ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ਇᥛ㔅⎄ࠅ䴽ಞⲺ֒⭞Ⱦ൞ᐸ൰䴶≸ૂ㩛ѐ᭬ޛᯯ䶘θቅᗤ㔅㩛ؗᗹ᤽ᮦ㔝㔣ؓᤷ൞҆㿸॰䰪χ൞䳽઎㿺′′′′ᯯ䶘θؗᗹ᤽ᮦ༺൞㦙ᷥ㓵䱺䘇χ䘆㩛ᡆᵢؗᗹԃ༺൞ᛨ㿸॰䰪θռሯᡆᵢু࣑Ⲻ亴㲇ᴿᡶ㕉ૂȾޢਮ࡬ԷѐⲺؗᗹ᤽ᮦᴿᡶс┇ռԃ༺൞㦙ᷥ㓵ԛрθъᙱ։р䖹Ѡ։ᡭᴪ҆㿸θ࡬䙖ѐ਀㓵р㓵сੂᰬ㔅㩛㘻Ⲻ人ᵕ䖹ެԌ㺂ѐ਀ঋж㔅㩛′′′′ᕅ㘻ᴪླȾ ⴤᖋ жȽѣളቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻䈹ḛⲺะᵢ᛻߫ ........................................................................ 1 δжε䈹ḛ䇴䇗਀ᇔ᯳ ................................................................................................ 1 δӂε䈹ḛ⢯㢨 ............................................................................................................ 2 ӂȽѣളቅᗤ㔅㩛䈹ḛⲺѱ㾷ਇ⧦ ............................................................................ 2 δжεпᆙᓜቅᗤ㔅㩛ᤷ㔣ഔ᳌θѱ㾷㔅㩛᤽ḽੂ↛᭯஺ .................................... 2 1. 㔅㩛⣬߫਀ᚘགྷ∊ׁ ....................................................................................... 2 2. ⧦䠇⍷㔪ᤷ᛻߫ ............................................................................................... 3 3. 䜞࠼൦॰਍⯡᛻Ƚ⚴᛻ᖧଃᱴ㪍 ................................................................... 4 δӂεᡆᵢু࣑ૂᐸ൰䴶≸⯨䖥ᤷ㔣ᡆѰቅᗤ㔅㩛Ⱁ⛯ ........................................ 6 1. ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᡶ䶘ѪⲺᴶѱ㾷ু࣑ᶛⓆӄᡆᵢ ............................................... 6 2. 〕䠇Ƚ৕ᶆᯏૂ䳽ᐛᡆᵢᶺᡆ㔅㩛ᡆᵢু࣑Ⲻᴶѱ㾷৕ഖ ....................... 8 δпεቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ӡ਍Ⲻ᭵ᆔ᢬ᤷᵠࠅθሯᒩਦ⋱⨼ૂᐸ൰ⴇ㇗ᴿᵕᖻ ............ 9 1. ᢬ᤷ᭵ᆔ㾼ⴌ᛻߫ ........................................................................................... 9 2 ᒩਦ⋱⨼ѱ㿸᝕਍䖹Ѱ↙ੇθሯᐸ൰ⴇ㇗ᴿᡶᵕᖻ ................................ 11 δ഑εቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻㷃䍺䴶≸䘑ж↛рॽ .................................................................. 15 1. 㷃䍺䴶≸ ......................................................................................................... 15 2. 㷃䍺⑖䚉 ......................................................................................................... 15 3. 㓵р㷃䍺ф㓵с㷃䍺 ..................................................................................... 17 δӊε2021ᒪ഑ᆙᓜቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ؗᗹ᤽ᮦᤷ㔣ഔ᳌ ............................................. 20 1. ഑ᆙᓜⲺؗᗹ᤽ᮦഔ᳌ ................................................................................. 20 2. ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ؗᗹ᤽ᮦᔸ䍞ᙝ࠼᷆ ................................................................. 21 εޣδ ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᵠ䘑㺂ᐛ୼⌞߂Ⲻ৕ഖ ............................................................ 23 пȽᙱ㔉ф䇞䇰 .......................................................................................................... 25 δжεቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻൞2021ᒪпᆙᓜ㔅㩛⣬߫ど↛ੇླθռԃ䶘ѪᡆᵢрॽȽ䴶≸у䏩ᅀ㔅㩛ু࣑Ⱦ .................................................................................................. 25 δӂεቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻㔝㔣ᗍⴀӄ਺亯᢬ᤷ᭵ᆔθሯᒩਦ⋱⨼ૂᐸ൰ⴇ㇗ᴿᡶᵕᖻȾ ...................................................................................................................................... 25 δпεቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻㷃䍺࠰⧦ᐤᔸौ䏁ࣵθޢਮ࡬Էѐ㷃䍺䴶≸ᴿᡶс䲃θѠ։ᡭ㷃䍺䴶≸ᒩどᒬ㧭ᗍᴪཐ䠇㷃ᵰᶺ᭥ᤷθ࠮ᱴቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻Ⲻ丝ᙝ䖹ᕰȾ .......... 26 δ഑εቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ሯ഑ᆙᓜⲺ人ᵕу਀рᆙᓜ҆㿸θޢਮ࡬Էѐؗᗹ᤽ᮦᴿᡶс䲃θռ㿺′′′′䖹ቅⲺቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ؗᗹ䖹Ѱᒩどθᱴ⧦࠰ཝ䠅ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ਇᥛ㔅⎄ࠅ䴽ಞȽቧѐ㫺≪⊖Ⲻ䠃㾷֒⭞Ⱦ .............................................................................. 26 䱺φ“ቅᗤᴿ䈓䈪” ...................................................................................................... 27 1 жȽѣളቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻䈹ḛⲺะᵢ᛻߫ δжε䈹ḛ䇴䇗਀ᇔ᯳ 2021ᒪ9ᴾθ्ӢཝᆜԷѐཝᮦᦤ⹊ガѣᗹȽ्Ӣཝᆜѣള立Ր〇ᆜ䈹ḛѣᗹф㲸㲷䳼ഘ⹊ガ䲘Ƚ㖇୼䬬㺂䙐䗽᭥Ԏᇓᒩਦ㓵р䈹⹊ᒩਦθሯ⍱䏹ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻1䳅ᵰਇ᭴䰤ভθᣋ᭴ᰬ䮵ާњઞθᴶ㓾ഔ᭬ᴿ᭾ᆑভ14567ԳȾᵢ⅗䈹ḛᡶ᭬䳼Ⲻؗᚥऻᤢቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻Ⲻ㔅㩛Ƚ㷃䍺䴶≸ԛ਀ሯᵠᶛⲺ人ᵕᅀ᛻߫θṭᵢ㾼ⴌᡇളуੂ൦॰Ƚуੂ㺂ѐθሯᡇളቅᗤ㔅㩛Ⲻ㔅㩛⣬߫Ƚᡶ䙽ࡦⲺ᥇ᡎ਀ሯсжᆙᓜⲺؗᗹᴿ䖹Ѱޞ䶘Ⲻ։⧦Ⱦᵢ⅗䈹ḛᱥ㠠2020ᒪ9ᴾ䎭θᵢ䈴从㓺䘔㔣ᅴӊѠᆙᓜੇᡇളቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻ᣋ᭴䈹⹊䰤ভθѰᐸ൰ѱ։Ƚᆜᵥ⮂Ƚ᭵ᆔ࡬ᇐ㘻਀立ՐޢՍҼ䀙ቅᗤ㔅㩛㘻⭕ᆎ⣬߫ᨆבҼᮦᦤ᭥ᤷ