房地产行业周度高频数据跟踪：节后三四线成交较清淡，一二线需求持续强劲

董浩首席分析师SFC CE Ref：BOI846hao.dong@cricsec.com李凯联系人likai@cric.com节后三四线成交较清淡，一二线需求持续强劲------周度高频数据跟踪（2.27-3.05） 周度数据一览：投资建议：受三四线城市市场明显转冷影响，本周新房、二手房成交整体转凉，其中二线城市环比同上周持平，一线城市新房二手房成交环比增速出现分歧，二手房环比-3.6%，新房成交环比+9.6%；在2020年疫情导致低基数影响下，本周新房、二手房成交量同比增速仍维持高位；。土地方面，本周土地市场供应抬升，成交量有所回暖，成交价和溢价率下跌。我们认为财务稳健自律，业务布局良好，组织管理高效的优质房企优势将进一步扩大，持续推荐行业首选配置组合：【金地集团】、【龙湖集团】、【万科A】、【旭辉控股集团】（财务健康叠加基本面良好，全年销售不悲观），以及布局合理，稳步扩张的中等规模房企【弘阳地产】、【中骏集团控股】、【美的置业】，同时推荐大湾区旧改资源充沛标的：【龙光集团】、【中国奥园】。•本周40城一手房成交面积同比+186.4%，环比-5.8%，3月累计成交面积同比+147.0%。本周40城一手房成交面积561.3万方，同比+186.4%，环比-5.8%。2021年至今40城一手房累计成交面积4279.3万方，累计同比+143.5%；其中一线（4城）/二线（16城）/三四线（20城）城市累计同比分别+198.4%/+117.0%/+175.2%。3月累计至今成交458.2万方，同比+147.0%。•本周19城二手房成交面积同比+137.3%，环比-6.5%，3月累计成交面积同比+122.8%。本周19城二手房成交面积171.4万方，同比+137.3%，环比-6.5%。2021年至今19城累计成交面积1444.1万方，累计同比+112.9%；其中一线（2城）/二线（8城）/三四线（9城）城市累计同比分别+102.8%/+117.0%/+127.0%。3月至今累计成交157.4万方，同比+122.8%。•本周百城土地成交建面771万方，同比-62.4%，环比+40.8%。本周百城土地成交建面771万方，同比-62.4%，环比+40.8%；本周百城土地供给1206万方，同比-61.2%，环比+228.9%；供销比（供给/成交）为1.6。本周百城平均成交楼面均价4036元/平方米，较上周-20.1%；百城一线/二线/三四线城市成交楼面均价分别为11543/5602/2086元/平方米。本周百城土地溢价率为16.5%；其中一线/二线/三四线城市土地溢价率分别为0.1%/16.6%/37.0%。•本周17城住宅可售面积合计9226.9万方，同比+13.3%，环比-7.2%。本周17城住宅可售面积合计9226.9万方，同比+13.3%，环比-7.2%；一线（4城）/二线（7城）/三四线（6城）城市可售面积分别为2913.3/4333.9/1979.7万方，同比分别+2.9%/+100.4%/-23.6%。•风险提示：样本选取以及样本数据更新时段各异，统计结果和实际数据或存在差异；三四线销量下滑超预期；长效机制超预期。 rQpMmPnQoMrPmQtQuNpOpP7NaO6MsQmMmOrQkPqQtQiNoPxPbRqRoOMYoNtMvPrMsO一手房成交数据（40城）详情年份销售面积地区一手房销售面积同比201620172018201920202021年累计至今3月累计最近一周2021年累计同比3月累计同比最近一周环比最近一周同比分域级40城27159 21210 22206 24946 22873 4302.4 434.8 537.9 126.9%134.4%-9.7%119.2%一线（4城）4886 3108 3022 3386 3844 786.2 68.4 96.2 181.4%247.9%9.6%220.6%二线（16城）16307 11825 11645 14522 13632 2326.2 261.3 307.7 102.6%138.8%1.9%113.6%三四线（20城）5966 6278 7539 7037 5396 1189.9 105.1 134.0 153.9%86.4%-34.9%87.9%分区域长三角9357 7052 6487 7295 7314 1486 185.7 221 139.4%144.7%-0.1%121.4%环渤海4915 3644 2860 3451 3749 551 46.7 59 105.9%139.8%-22.6%112.8%粤港澳3449 2423 2410 2521 3147 611 42.2 62 229.1%186.7%-0.6%159.5%中西部6121 4320 5714 7246 5482 954 96.2 110 81.9%97.1%-9.0%95.2%其他区域3316 3770 4736 4432 3260 701 63.9 86 135.0%140.9%-25.4%128.5%一线北京946 546 495 716 797 146 13.7 16 989.2%378.8%-22.7%368.1%上海2172 1354 1264 1371 1411 281 27.2 39 1244.7%331.6%41.4%222.4%广州1354 951 972 931 1192 237 17.1 28 1928.0%467.7%18.3%275.9%深圳414 257 290 369 444 122 10.5 13 968.5%223.6%-16.9%84.2%二线杭州1557 1081 965 859 824 222 43.3 48 858.0%236.3%21.1%112.8%南京1461 784 701 861 999 206 31.2 35 938.0%175.1%0.6%127.0%武汉3030 2082 1804 2347 1952 338 33.1 42 1353.8%#DIV/0!26.9%#DIV/0!成都745 397 1398 2020 2155 366 46.5 49 740.6%150.2%36.7%45.1%青岛2057 1691 1551 1481 1570 212 22.7 31 1487.9%336.2%19.2%185.3%苏州990 877 907 1033 1097 168 21.0 24 908.5%86.8%28.4%33.1%福州268 172 189 262 280 58 9.0 12 796.6%297.3%8.9%139.7%东莞893 561 508 552 744 120 5.5 8 1918.9%207.3%-6.5%87.1%惠州520 323 280 296 330 57 4.0 5 1469.9%256.8%0.6%141.4%南宁1042 863 827 1166 3 0 --#DIV/0!---济南1621 953 545 997 1093 147 4.1 4 1285.4%-36.0%-81.7%-64.9%绍兴180 198 156 245 239 36 4.9 6 1220.1%240.9%-13.2%114.6%宁波587 618 401 777 792 155 15.4 15 1285.6%592.5%-36.2%296.4%温州559 615 716 842 1028 171 13.8 22 1396.5%298.4%-23.3%233.8%泉州229 219 325 277 249 28 1.3 1 1284.1%52.2%-40.4%-19.8%常州570 389 371 508 277 41 5.6 6 718.3%66.5%1.0%-9.3% 一手房成交数据（40城）详情（续）年份销售面积地区一手房销售面积同比201620172018201920202021年累计至今3月累计最近一周2021年累计同比3月累计同比最近一周环比最近一周同比三线扬州2973393802352615710101036.5%249.2%57.5%178.8%岳阳22924619521323230241215.5%118.8%-24.7%112.3%韶关24521018815917324231288.9%49.8%-36.0%69.4%金华18510120319224261231872.5%69.9%-34.3%77.3%吉林27020025123700------镇江759501774776648999141409.2%187.7%-7.6%153.8%赣州8064769229158381601010856.5%-42.8%-74.7%-42.8%淮安9816856555064761441012832.7%111.0%-36.6%102.1%连云港66280569666869421022261127.6%261.5%-27.4%209.8%常德0573163482845545950.5%79.9%-20.5%64.9%淮南1182802021971273245883.5%176.9%-16.8%97.6%江门26822012012214731231922.6%188.3%-10.4%210.7%莆田2551791451911813334997.3%24.6%-40.4%53.9%肇庆011224025227645351321.1%124.2%-19.6%128.2%泰安29145326825728045671674.8%343.1%12.0%347.5%芜湖53455810119527512110141894.5%208.7%-55.1%240.7%湛江075183215390--32.3%---舟山6719513811713817231271.0%83.8%22.9%101.4%池州056126126852144666.9%66.5%-3.1%62.6%佛山05311438111500------ 二手房成交数据（19城）详情年份销售面积地区二手房销售面积同比201620172018201920202021年累计至今3月累计最近一周2021累计同比3月累计同比最近一周环比最近一周同比分域级19城10047.67476.27110.18640.18570.51444.6155.4169.5100.1%120.1%-2.0%82.7%一线（2城）3258.41744.01864.81886.02302.1401.645.150.794.7%140.1%-3.6%96.9%二线（8城）5675.74014.13488.84662.34024.4700.376.582.398.7%112.2%0.1%75.9%三四线（9城）1113.41718.01756.62091.82244.0342.633.836.4109.9%114.2%-4.2%80.6%一线北京2478.71204.11338.31251.31496.5298.732.538.1153.1%255.1%-8.0%196.9%深圳779.7540.0526.5634.7805.6103.012.612.616.6%31.0%12.6%-2.3%二线杭州960.2789.0485.9484.1588.999.210.813.5203.4%191.9%62.5%190.4%南京1360.1741.1550.1765.71002.2185.020.221.4144.3%74.7%-11.7%39.0%成都749.2532.3798.81075.9470.261.89.09.1-10.7%101.6%-7.2%63.5%青岛622.4583.0424.3460.1545.292.011.011.5108.1%175.2%6.7%118.1%南昌302.5246.40.0196.4210.333.80.00.2219.8%-100.0%-94.7