不变的匠心 多元的精品生态

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 海外研 究 公司深 度 研 究 报 告 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 互联网 ＃investSuggestion＃ 审慎增持 ＃investSuggestionChange＃ （首次） ＃marketData＃ 市场数据 日期 2020-12-30 收盘价（港元） 145.9 总股本（百万股） 3,455.1 总市值（亿港元） 5041 净资产（百万元） 85,247 总资产（百万元） 144,732 每股净资产（元） 24.67 ＃relatedReport＃ 相关报告 海外TMT研究 ＃emailAuthor＃ 分析师： 洪嘉骏 hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BPL829 SAC：S0190519080002 ＃assAuthor＃ ＃dyStockcode＃ 9999 .HK ＃dyCompany＃ 网易 港股通（沪/深） ＃title＃ 不变的匠心 多元的精品生态 ＃createTime1＃ 2020年12月31日 主要财务指标 ＄zycwzb|主要财务指标＄ 会计年度 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 营业收入(百万元) 59,241 73,555 89,777 105,141 同比增长 15.8% 24.2% 22.1% 17.1% 归母净利润(百万元) 21,238 15,810 21,443 24,958 同比增长 245.2% -25.6% 35.6% 16.4% 毛利率 53.3% 53.2% 52.5% 52.4% 归母净利率 35.8% 21.5% 23.9% 23.7% 净资产收益率 33.9% 15.4% 16.8% 15.9% 基本每股收益(元) 6.15 4.58 6.21 7.22 每股经营现金流(元) 4.98 7.03 10.15 12.05 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 23年互联网老兵，以游戏为不断拓展边界。自1997年丁磊成立公司以来，网易历经互联网门户、视频、游戏、增值服务等业务转型，至今成为全球第二大移动游戏厂商。与此同时，公司延续工匠精神，打磨出有道（DAO.N）、网易云音乐及网易严选等精品创新业务，拥有行业领先的用户口碑，构筑生态扩张与变现能力的基础。在20Q3的营收当中，网络游戏营收占比74.3%，有道营收占比4.8%，创新业务及其他占比20.9%。 ⚫ 游戏业务：以经典IP及高效运营稳占国内份额，海外市场催化增长。网易游戏业务发源于自研端游及代理动视暴雪的国内发行，其后不断加强产品研发及运营，成功将原有IP转化至手游，当前收入超500亿人民币，约占国内市场份额20%（仅次于腾讯）。其业务的最大特色是《梦幻西游》等经典IP历久弥新，通过高效的产品运营稳定贡献流水及利润；我们预计以日本为首的海外市场未来持续放量，板块业务维持20%-25%增速。 ⚫ 有道：美股市值接近30亿美元，在线教育需求驱动，重点布局K12产品。有道在词典、翻译、笔记等工具产品行业领先，矩阵MAU达到1.08亿，2016年发力线上教育，学习服务收入占比超50%。科技属性在产品创新及运营效率形成差异化优势，未来的驱动来自K12线上教育。2020年前三季度线上课程付费人数为近50万人，同比增长438%。 ⚫ 创新业务：云音乐行业第二，严选仍有较大提升空间。网易云音乐在2019年底MAU超1.4亿，我们测算网易云App收入仅次于QQ音乐，并有行业最强的用户粘性；目前虽尚未盈利，在2019年的B+轮融资估值已达到70亿美元。严选定位在品质电商，由于精品化的产品路线，整体的规模与盈利能力仍无法与头部平台比拟，预计2022年收入为百亿量级。 ⚫ 投资建议：考虑到未来新游增量充足且海外市场扩张，有道教育及网易云音乐成本端逐渐缩窄，盈利多元化，我们预计网易2020-2022年收入分别为736/898/1051亿元，归母净利润为158/214/250亿元。根据SOTP分部估值，给予目标公司股价为173.6港元，对应2021年盈利预测为28倍PE，首次覆盖给予“审慎增持”评级。 风险提示：1）游戏行业增长放缓；2）出海不及预期；3）创新业务持续亏损 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 - 2 - 海外公司深度研究报告 Key Data Dec. 30, 2020 Closing Price（HKD） 145.9 Total Shares (Mn) 3,455.12 Market Cap(HKD/Mn) 504,099 Net Assets (RMB/Mn) 85,247 Total Assets (RMB/Mn) 144,732 BVPS(RMB) 24.67 Analyst HONG Jiajun hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BPL829 SAC：S0190519080002 Contact Overweight (Initial Coverage) TMT Industry NetEase (9999.HK) Stock Connect (SH/SZ) Craftsmanship to extend boutique portfolio 12/31/2020 Key Financial Indicators FY 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue (Mn/RMB) 59,241 73,555 89,777 105,141 YoY (%) 15.8% 24.2% 22.1% 17.1% Net Profit (Mn/RMB) 21,238 15,810 21,443 24,958 YoY (%) 245.2% -25.6% 35.6% 16.4% Gross Margin (%) 53.3% 53.2% 52.5% 52.4% Net Profit Margin (%) 35.8% 21.5% 23.9% 23.7% ROE (%) 33.9% 15.4% 16.8% 15.9% EPS (RMB) 6.15 4.58 6.21 7.22 PSCFFO (RMB) 4.98 7.03 10.15 12.05 Highlights NetEase: 23-year veteran in the Internet industry, with games as the pillar and constantly expanding businesses. Since established in 1997, Netease has experienced the transformation of Internet portal, video, games and value-added services. It is now the second largest mobile game manufacturer in the world. The continuous growth of overseas business and premium new games is still the core driving force of valuation. The company's innovative businesses include Youdao (DAO.N), NetEase Cloud Music and YANXUAN. In the third quarter of 2020, online games, Youdao and innovative business & others accounted for 74.29%, 4.8%, and 20.9% respectively of the total revenue. Online games: stable domestic share, high barriers for competition, accelerating frequency of the launch of new games, and incremental revenue from overseas business. The revenue volume of Netease games is second only to Tencent in China, accounting for about 20% of the domestic market share; revenue from classic games such as "dream journey to the west" was stable, and at the same time, it launched new games frequently to stimulate further growth. Currently focus on the key IP game, such as “Harry Potter: Magic Awakened” and so on, as well as the development of overseas markets, especially the Japanese market. Youdao: focused on K12 products, and driven by the demand of online education, the large user base has shown potential for realization. The MAU of Youdao product matrix has reached 108 million. In 2016, it began to focus on online education, and learning service income has now become the pillar, accounting for more than 50%. The core driving of valuation comes from K12 online education. K12 paid enrollments was 359000 in 2019. Driven by the increase of industry scale and market share, the space for growth in payment is huge, and monetization ability is expected to improve with adult education and hardware sales. Innovative businesses: the valuation of NetEase Cloud Music has exceeded $7 billion, and Yanxuan still has great room for growth. By the end of 2019, the MAU of Netease Cloud has exceeded 140 million, and its app revenue is second only to QQ music. We est