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利率债周报:货币利率涨跌不一,债市短期延续震荡

2020-09-14杨松晓爱建证券余***
利率债周报:货币利率涨跌不一,债市短期延续震荡

利率债周报请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明1爱建证券有限责任公司证券研究报告●跟踪报告●利率债2020年9月14日星期一货币利率涨跌不一,债市短期延续震荡研究所投资要点:本周央行货币投放6200亿元,货币回笼3900亿元,货币净投放2300亿元。本周未开展MLF操作。质押式回购利率普遍下行。9月11日,DR001加权平均利率为1.4579%,较上周下跌57.89个BP;DR007加权平均利率为2.0912%,较上周下跌11.45个BP;DR014加权平均利率为2.1294%,较上周下跌13.34个BP;Shibor利率各有涨跌。9月11日,Shibor隔夜为1.4640%,较上周下跌58.8个BP;Shibor1月为2.5640%,较上周上涨16.1个BP,Shibor3月为2.6970%,较上周上涨3.6个BP。本周银行间质押式回购日均成交量为43605.32亿元,较上周减增加5598.12亿元。本周利率品种共发行总额14934.78亿元,到期偿还总额为11100.2亿元,净融资额3834.58亿元。其中国债发行额2454.8亿元,地方政府债发行额1632.61亿元,政策性银行债发行额1137亿元。国债收益率互有涨跌。9月11日,十年期国债收益率为3.1346%,较上周上涨1.18个BP,五年期国债收益率为3.0.71%,下跌6.37个BP,一年期国债收益率2.5964%,上涨0.79个BP。国开债收益率互有涨跌。9月11日,十年期国开债收益率为3.6811%,较上周下跌0.98个BP,七年期国开债收益率为3.5790%,上涨5.24个BP,五年期国开债收益率为3.4890%,下跌5.96个BP,三年期国开债收益率3.3113%,下跌2.33个BP,一年期国债收益率2.8101%,下跌3.85个BP。。风险提示:经济复苏情况货币政策边际变化分析师:杨松晓TEL:021-32229888-25525E-mail:yangsongxiao@ajzq.com执业编号:S0820520080001 利率债研究报告请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明2目录1、流动性观察.....................................................................................................................................................41.1公开市场操作........................................................................................................................................41.2货币市场利率........................................................................................................................................42、一级市场.........................................................................................................................................................63.二级市场.........................................................................................................................................................64、宏观高频数据跟踪.........................................................................................................................................84.1通胀........................................................................................................................................................84.2房地产....................................................................................................................................................94.3汽车........................................................................................................................................................94.4钢铁......................................................................................................................................................104.5煤炭......................................................................................................................................................104.6水泥......................................................................................................................................................115、海外债市.......................................................................................................................................................11风险提示:经济复苏情况货币政策边际变化...............................................................................................12 利率债研究报告请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明3图表目录图表1:MLF投放数量与利率....................................................................................................................4图表2:银行间质押式回购加权利率.......................................................................................................4图表3:存款类金融机构质押式回购加权利率......................................................................................4图表4:银行间同业拆借利率...................................................................................................................5图表5:上海银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)......................................................................................5图表6:银行间质押式回购成交量...........................................................................................................5图表7:国债收益率...................................................................................................................................6图表8:国开债收益率...............................................................................................................................6图表9:国债期限利差...............................................................................................................................7图表10:国开债期限利差.........................................................................................................................7图表11:隐含税率.....................................................................................................................................7图表12:农产品批发价格200指数.........................................................................................................8图表13:22省市猪肉平均价....................................................................................................................8图表14:RJ/CRB商品价格指数&南华工业品指数...............................................................................8图表15:布伦特原油&WTI原油(期货结算价)..................................................................................8图表16:30大中城市商品房成交面积..........................................