See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 Equity Research Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report 股票研究 公司报告 证券研究报告 [Table_Info1] 石化行业 Petrochemicals Sector [Table_Info2] 中国海洋石油 CNOOC (00883 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: CNOOC (00883 HK) Peter Shao 邵俊樨 (852) 2509 5464 公司报告： 中国海洋石油 (00883 HK) peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk 21 November 2019 [Table_Summary] Growth Story Reinforced, Maintain "Buy" 增长剧情得以强化，维持“买入”  Recently, concerns on crude oil demand due to rising protectionism have compounded by growing fears over supply surges amid a wave of new projects set to come online in 2020 in Norway and Brazil, but we maintain our view that Brent crude will remain resilient near the psychologically important level of US$60/bbl in the short-to-medium term. Meanwhile, we argue that the market could potentially underestimate the supply risks in the Middle East.  CNOOC continued to deliver on-track operational results in 3Q19. During 3Q19, total O&G production increased by 9.7% yoy to 124.8 mmboe, in part aided by more favourable weather conditions; Capex increased by 27.9% yoy to RMB19.5 billion, and 1-9M19 capex reached 71% of the mid-point of the FY19 budget range. Given the current momentum, FY19 production could exceed the upper end of the management’s guidance range. The Company also has promising green-field projects, both domestically and overseas, to support its 3-year production growth strategy.  We adjust our 2019-2021 earnings estimates by 3.6%/ -0.5%/ -1.4% to RMB60,934 million/ RMB68,202 million/ RMB76,481 million, respectively. Our adjustments reflect 1) higher production estimates and 2) updated FX assumptions. Our oil price and all-in cost assumptions remain unchanged.  We maintain our investment rating of "Buy" and our TP of HK$14.00. Our TP corresponds to 2019-2021 P/E of 9.2x/ 8.2x/ 7.4x, respectively, representing a 25.7% discount to our DCF-derived NAV of HK$18.84/share.  近期随着挪威和巴西一系列新项目将于2020年投产，市场不仅对贸易保护主义抬头形势下的原油需求存在担忧，还愈发担心供给激增问题，但我们仍维持此前对油价的看法，即中短期内布油在60美元每桶的重要心理关口价位附近具有一定韧性。同时，我们认为中东供应风险或存在被市场低估的潜在可能。  中海油于2019年第3季度再度实现如期运营业绩。季度内油气总产量同比增长9.7%至1.248亿桶油当量，一定程度上受益于较好天气环境；资本开支同比增长27.9%至人民币195亿元,而前9个月资本开支则达到全年预算中间值的71%。基于目前趋势，2019财年产量有望超越管理层指引上限。此外，公司在国内及海外亦有许多颇具前景的新项目来支持其3年增产计划。  我们分别调整2019-2021年盈利预测3.6%/-0.5%/-1.4%至人民币609.34亿元/人民币682.02亿元/人民币764.81亿元。此次调整反映了我们对产量更乐观的估计以及更新后的外汇假设。我们对油价和桶油成本的假设维持不变。  我们维持“买入”的投资评级以及14.00港元的目标价。我们的目标价分别对应9.2倍/8.2倍/7.4倍2019-2021年市盈率，且较我们用折现现金流方法得出的18.84港元每股的估值有25.7%的折让。 [Table_Rank] Rating: Buy Maintained 评级： 买入 (维持) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$14.00 Revised from 原目标价: HK$14.00 Share price 股价： HK$11.680 Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] [Table_PriceChange] Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (2.7) 0.7 (8.2) Rel. % to HS Index 相对恒指变动 % (1.7) (0.1) (10.1) Avg. share price（HK$） 平均股价（港元） 12.1 11.9 12.4 Sour ce: Blo omb er g, Guotai Junan International. [Table_Profit] Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2017A 186,390 24,677 0.550 3,828.6 19.6 8.510 1.3 0.368 3.1 6.5 2018A 226,963 52,688 1.180 114.5 9.1 9.346 1.2 0.527 4.4 13.2 2019F 237,017 60,934 1.365 15.7 7.9 10.180 1.1 0.531 4.4 14.0 2020F 255,705 68,202 1.528 11.9 7.0 11.093 1.0 0.614 5.1 14.4 2021F 282,123 76,481 1.713 12.1 6.3 12.118 0.9 0.687 5.7 14.8 [Table_BaseData] Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 44,647.5 Major shareholder 大股东 CNOOC 64.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 521,482.3 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 35.6 3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 50,181.5 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19净负债/股东资金 (%) 28.9 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 (HK$) 15.140 / 10.740 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19每股估值（港元） 18.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. (25)(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152025% change HSICN OOC Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6 [Table_RightMar1] 21 November 2019 [Table_RightMar2] CNOOC 中国海洋石油 (00883 HK) [Table_PageHeader] CNOOC (00883 HK) Oil Market Review While the major trends in global oil markets as identified in our last Company Report on 9th Oct. remain relevant, some emerging conditions are worth discussing. Recently, concerns over crude oil demand due to rising protectionism have been compounded by growing fears over supply surge amid a wave of new projects set to come online in 2020 in Norway and Brazil. To tackle economic slowdown, global central banks continue their rate-cutting frenzy, but ultimately low interest rates are no panacea for bad trade decisions. Currently, the US and China are working to finalise the phase one deal, but optimism that an agreement can be reached soon has faded in recent days as US President Trump dismissed Beijing’s claim that the US is ready to roll back tariffs. We expect continued