中国食品预期以外的盈利警告：12年下半年或录得亏损

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究国泰君安研究国泰君安研究国泰君安研究 China Foods 中国食品 (00506 HK) Flash Note See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 3 Flash Note: China Foods (00506 HK) Sunny Kwok 郭日升 +852 2509 2642 快讯 ：中国食品 (00506 HK) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk 7 February 2013 Surprising Profit Warning: Possible Loss-Making in 2H12 预期以外的盈利警告：12年下半年或录得亏损
Trading of China Foods was halted in the afternoon session yesterday and the Company issued a profit warning announcement. The Company expects net profit in 2012 to record a relatively large YoY decrease, which is a huge negative surprise to us as well as the market. To recap, China Foods’ net profit in 1H12 soared by 50.4% YoY, to HK$474 million. Originally we expect the Company’s net profit in 2012 to grow by 28.0% YoY, to HK$826 million, while the market expects China Foods’ net profit to reach HK$892 million in 2012. If China Foods’ net profit falls by more than 26.5% YoY in 2012, the Company posts a reported net loss in 2H12.
China Foods attributes the relatively large decrease in net profit to (1) A loss in excess of HK$100 million for the Company’s kitchen food business in 2012 (1H12: Operating profit of HK$46.3 million, down 37.8% YoY; 2011: Operating profit of HK$162.3 million, up 3.8x YoY) and (2) A decrease of profit of the Company’s wine business (1H12: Operating profit of HK$449.8 million, up 50.2% YoY; 2011: Operating profit of HK$633.1 million, up 73.3% YoY). On the other hand, the Company’s beverage business reported a continuous growth in operating result and operating loss of confectionery business reported a relatively large reduction in 2012. Although we turned cautious on wine and kitchen food businesses, actual results were much worse than our expectations, while operating performance of beverage and confectionery businesses should be generally in line with previous forecasts.
Outlook of China Foods core businesses remain gloomy in 2013. 1) Slow economic recovery in China and the PRC government campaign on austerity are expected to negatively affect wine business sales growth and possible product mix deterioration. 2) Competition between Coca Cola and Pepsi will become intensifying as we expect Tingyi (00322 HK) to roll out large scale promotion of Pepsi products, including both carbonated and juice drinks. 3) Soybean price, a major raw material of kitchen food business, stays high and profitability of kitchen food business is likely to keep suffering in 1H13, despite ASP hike in Oct-2012. 4) Confectionery business may achieve breakeven in 2013 but we do not expect significant positive contribution and possible raw materials prices rebound is our concern.
China Foods imposes stringent cost control in 1H12 but expenses are expected to soar in 2H12. The profit warning is totally out of market expectation and share price is expected to be under huge pressure in the short run. On the other hand, the Company generates revenue of over HK$30 billion but net margin is just less than 2%. We believe there is ample room for China Foods to improve its profitability, given such a large business scale. We are “Neutral” on China Foods with a TP of HK$7.50 but both investment rating and TP are under review. We are relatively bearish on revenue growths of beverage and wine businesses and we believe only imposition of more cost savings measures will be able to help the Company to report faster earnings growth in 2013. 7 February 2013 China Foods 中国食品 (00506 HK) Flash Note See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 3
中国食品于昨天中午开始停牌 ，然后晚上发布盈利警告，公司公司公司公司 预预预预期期期期2012年年年年净净净净利同比利同比利同比利同比 将录将录将录将录 得得得得较较较较大幅度的下滑大幅度的下滑大幅度的下滑大幅度的下滑，，，，业绩远逊业绩远逊业绩远逊业绩远逊我我我我们们们们及市及市及市及市 场预场预场预场预 期期期期。。。。简单 重述中 国食品12年上半年 业绩 ，净利同比大幅增长50.4%，至4.74亿港元 。我们此前预期中 国食品12年全年 净利为8.26亿港元，按年上升28.0%，而市 场则 大约预 期公司12年净利为8.92亿港元 。如果中国食品如果中国食品如果中国食品如果中国食品12年净利跌幅超过年净利跌幅超过年净利跌幅超过年净利跌幅超过26.5%，，，，则表示公司于则表示公司于则表示公司于则表示公司于12年下半年录得亏损年下半年录得亏损年下半年录得亏损年下半年录得亏损。。。。
中国食品 认为12年净利同比预期有 较大幅度下滑主要是由于 (1) 公司 厨房食品 业务12年录得超 过1亿港元的 亏损 (12年上半年 ：经营溢利4,630万港元 ，同比下跌37.8%；2011年：经营 溢利1.6亿港元 ，按年大增3.8倍) 及 (2) 酒品 类业务 盈利有所下滑 (12年上半年 ：经营 溢利4.5亿港元 ，同比大增50.2%；2011年：经营 溢利6.3亿港元 ，按年上升73.3%)。另一方面，饮料业务经营业绩则持续增长 ，休闲业务经营亏损同比也有较大幅度的收窄。虽然我们早前对酒品类及厨房食品业务变得谨慎虽然我们早前对酒品类及厨房食品业务变得谨慎虽然我们早前对酒品类及厨房食品业务变得谨慎虽然我们早前对酒品类及厨房食品业务变得谨慎，，，，但业绩仍远差于我们预期但业绩仍远差于我们预期但业绩仍远差于我们预期但业绩仍远差于我们预期，，，，而而而而饮料及休闲业务的业绩则可能与我们预期比较相符饮料及休闲业务的业绩则可能与我们预期比较相符饮料及休闲业务的业绩则可能与我们预期比较相符饮料及休闲业务的业绩则可能与我们预