国际宏观经济2011年2季度策略报告：有惊无险,全球经济复苏趋势不变

䞡㽕ໄᯢ˖ᴀ᡹ਞݙᆍҙҷ㸼԰㗙ϾҎ㾖⚍DŽᴀ݀ৌ੠԰㗙ᴀҎ࡯∖᡹ਞݙᆍޚ⹂ᅠᭈˈԚϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞ㗠ѻ⫳ⱘӏԩৢᵰᡓᢙ⊩ᕟ䋷ӏDŽᴀ᡹ਞⱘ⠜ᴗᔦ໾ᑇ⋟䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ੠԰㗙݅ৠᢹ᳝ˈབ䳔ᓩ⫼੠䕀䕑ˈ䳔ᕕᕫ⠜ᴗ᠔᳝㗙ⱘৠᛣDŽӏԩҎՓ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞˈ㾚ЎৠᛣҹϞໄᯢDŽDŽ .ڳޝ܁ڔ࠼ޖભޑէІ৛ͱف2011ભ03ၥပပ࠹࠹ํํຢຢēē௦௦௏௏࠼࠼ޖޖ؏؏പപ௔௔ಽಽϢϢέέͱفႫྑġॆΑཐڳઝெࣣ؏ၶēํৢ๦ֺڳޥճॆΑཐࢋಹؤ၇ԅࠒࡥఢۥསέēୣದဒС२՛ݖ೓Ӿམᄷ࿵ູdॆΑཐՎ৙ӽᄡୣದဒС२Ӗ׶ຏܡၽի୙ճڳޝದဒޮٌٲюѪݬēӬಾē࡜ᄯЩ୙ࣿߣēॆΑཐႾ৙ճ௦௏ದဒ٢ٓԅ࿵ູωϢӖdဎဟแڳၐဒࠩࣇᄚပ2.7%ᆰဗࣿᆑဟॆΑཐē࿙ҮॆΑཐႾ৙ճแڳၐဒࠩࣇ࿵ູಎฑd࠭୙ڳޝၐဒޮٌᆜಽྸ࠼ѩדֱ࿸ॴॆΑཐၐဒС२ຏߦճ௦௏ದဒ٢ٓԅ࿵ູdӬಾē഻ᆂఐ·ຏ͖ભᄷߙϤ֢ަࣙēఐ·ၐဒ༓ௐԅ႙ަပࢶટݖюนದဒޮٌ౨჈ԅ҈֟࿙ഭdఐ·ԙჱճఐ·౨͖ભဍୣಾ֝ޑէఐ·࠼ޖؕੋ࿵ູࠀӖēӬಾၽᄷߙ෇ᆇԅ෗Վຏēఐ·࠼ޖပฌၽࠢભຏ͖ભಬຣࠀஜ࠱ԅֱӰd̟ზಷ࠘࿟໻ԅٹസē·ұӖԙჱߜࣸԎఐ·2011ભGDP0.5ّ̈́דԤēԙჱ൅ಞႽఐ·GDPԅ2.5%-4%dԙჱϢ؟έఐ·࠼ޖ҉ဟ؏പࠈխԅ૱ծēఐ·ඹݪࠥൊפຢჾၽԄӾܯࠓdఐ·ུ໻֝ޑէߜݖޟ༣ᄓ໻ࣚഞݪΛჿІdసӖ໰ဈିމݯٲ଴֮ຏԸ๦͋ཉc୎඄ཉԉ๦૘ڳޥԅ໰ဈିމēϦד๦૘ڳޥԅڳႯೌ࿍৑ѻຣΑࠀੜມԅ౨ಖēకᆇю·ԅ౨ಖࠩྡྷϤަӖॴუ໔ڳޥԅϭჿؕӤd૘ᄽႯ๠ูඕಾ૘ᄽڳޥ࠼ޖ؏പੋংԅྡྷӖა̘ēӬಾē൑ܮϢᄠဟᆥᄘ૘ᄽ࠼ޖԅ؏പࠩёdಹಬ౨ē໰ဈିމݯٲຏԸ໰ဈԉމωਠပ࿵ູუ໔ڳޥԅڳႯ೓Ӿᅴଖۤб৹ē೎ຕ೓ӾႯ๠Ѫݬԅ๰ࣻྙပฌဟ2012ભᄷ໭ݦԄၽڳޝႯ௪ೇЦకᆇԅટॏd૘၍௕ඹ჎ďHICPලΑĐॕ༣సّၥغဟ2%ē૘၍௕ඹ჎౨໻ၽ۳Ӗёէ౨ಾࠥൊ໿ϭჿჿІďඔغഅ৑ĐۤӖᆗ౥ଶޮٌ౨჈ԅࠒڴēඑ҂അ৑Ըჼۤટၗޮٌԅ࿵ູēં஍૘၍௕HICPලΑࠧน1%ᆰဗdဎဟഅ৑ԸჼҎӽӾHICP༓ྑྡྷՇԅҎӽನ޷ē࿙Үഅ৑౨ಖճHICPԅ࿵ູߜݖၽ֝ޑէԄྻཛྷ༣cωயճHICPԅ࿵ູёէݖٗӖdখෳēͧࣳದဒၽઝԅӖᆗ౥ଶޮٌၽ֝ޑէغสၮ໻ྦྷ௶ಾӖؠ৑ಹߑd֝ޑէ૘၍௕HICPලΑྦྷ௶ݖغဟ2%dਥڳ࠼ޖޟ༣؏പࠩёē࡜ྜೇЦပ؟౟Ӭಾಞྜ৑ߜݖޟ༣ปћၽغสēּԙСೇЦྦྷ௶Ԏਹē೴२ࣚഞݪΛჿІQE2ߜၽ֝ޑէޟ༣ԄӾᄓ໻dOECDჼ඘ྦྷ௶҉ဟࣴ჆ࠈխdڑᅟ໭໶࠼ޖ඘ԅඹ჎פຢē໭໶࠼ޖ඘֝ޑէఏݖ༪႔ަ๯࿫ճغสၮ໻ԅඹ჎dڳޝ܁ڔ࠼ޖغމד๥ಝġह̙ਖ਼Ԩܥġ010-8832 1913 Emailġliam@tpyzq.com.cn ೑䰙ᅣ㾖㒣⌢2011ᑈ2ᄷᑺㄪ⬹᡹ਞ 䞡㽕ໄᯢ˖ᴀ᡹ਞݙᆍҙҷ㸼԰㗙ϾҎ㾖⚍DŽᴀ݀ৌ੠԰㗙ᴀҎ࡯∖᡹ਞݙᆍޚ⹂ᅠᭈˈԚϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞ㗠ѻ⫳ⱘӏԩৢᵰᡓᢙ⊩ᕟ䋷ӏDŽᴀ᡹ਞⱘ⠜ᴗᔦ໾ᑇ⋟䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ੠԰㗙݅ৠᢹ᳝ˈབ䳔ᓩ⫼੠䕀䕑ˈ䳔ᕕᕫ⠜ᴗ᠔᳝㗙ⱘৠᛣDŽӏԩҎՓ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞˈ㾚ЎৠᛣҹϞໄᯢDŽDŽ- 2 -ંৃྡྷcॆΑཐ৙ࡥϢݖٔ·؟έ௦௏ದဒ٢࿫ٌࡥcճᄯڳၐဒࠩࣇ࿵ູಎฑ............................................................. 4(ྡྷ)๦ֺڳޥճॆΑཐԅࢋಹӕݬಾѻဟୣᆑಆჿᄭc࠼ޖॆ࿍ᆳѻԅΡ௶༪႔............................................ 4(֝)ॆΑཐՎ৙ӽᄡୣದဒС२Ӗ׶ຏܡၽի୙ճڳޝದဒޮٌٲюѪݬēӬಾē࡜ᄯЩ୙ࣿߣēॆΑཐႾ৙ճ௦௏ದဒ٢ٓԅ࿵ູωϢӖ...................................................................................................................................... 4(స)ڳޝၐဒޮٌྸ࠼ѩדֱ࿸ॴॆΑཐࡥಽճ௦௏ದဒ٢ٓԅ࿵ູ.................................................................... 6(ങ)ॆΑཐႾࡥճแڳԅၐဒࠩࣇ࿵ູ۳໌ēแڳၐဒࠩࣇճॆΑཐԅྦྷӉէ۳Ԏ............................................ 7֝cఐ·ԙჱճୣ౨͖ભဍୣಾ֝ޑէఐ·࠼ޖؕੋ࿵ູࠀӖēӬಾၽᄷߙ෇ᆇԅ෗Վຏēఐ·࠼ޖပฌၽࠢભຏ͖ભಬຣࠀஜ࠱ԅֱӰ 8ďྡྷĐԙჱ࿵ູఐ·2011ભGDP0.5ّ̈́דԤ......................................................................................................... 9ď֝Đఐ·࠼ޖ҉ဟัۤ؏പԅࠩёᄯ...................................................................................................................... 9ďసĐఐ·ඹݪࠥൊפຢჾၽຏߦ............................................................................................................................ 10ďങĐݪΛჿІġఐ·ུ໻֝ޑէߜݖޟ༣κ௜Ԏॆ৑ჿІωޟ༣ᄓ໻ᆇСٳ৹ޙܣ..................................... 11సc૘၍௕ġႯ๠ูඕ־̘Ӭ௯Ϣݖᆥᄘ૘ᄽ࠼ޖ؏പࠩёē૘၍௕ඹ჎౨ಖၽ۳Ӗёէ౨ಾࠥൊ໿ϭჿჿІďඔغഅ৑ĐۤӖᆗ౥ଶޮٌ౨჈ԅࠒڴ................................................................................................................................... 12ďྡྷĐ૘၍௕࠼ޖჼ඘ྦྷ௶҉ဟࣴ჆୙.................................................................................................................... 12ď֝Đࠥൊ໿ϭჿჿІď႙ᄔഅ౨ԸĐྻރͧࣳದဒၽઝԅڳޝӖᆗ౥ଶޮٌ౨ླྀߜݖၽ֝ޑէޟ༣ճ૘၍௕ඹ჎ďHICPලΑĐٲю౨໻Վॏ............................................................................................................................. 12ďసĐ૘ᄽႯ๠ูඕಾ૘ᄽڳޥ࠼ޖ؏പੋংԅྡྷӖა̘ēӬಾē൑ܮϢᄠဟᆥᄘ૘ᄽ࠼ޖԅ؏പࠩё..... 14ďങĐ૘ᄽࡗᅙݯᄥ.................................................................................................................................................... 17ങcਥڳ࠼ޖ؏പԅݮ҄ჾၽԄӾ٧څcЩ୙ඹ჎၇୙଼ืēӬಾē࡜ྜೇЦఏ௶མࢍcּԙСೇЦჼ඘ྦྷࡘζຣԎਹēQE2ݖၽ֝ޑէޟ༣ԄӾᄓ໻.............................................................................................................................. 18ďྡྷĐਥڳ࠼ޖ؏പԅݮ҄ჾၽԄӾ٧څ................................................................................................................ 18ď֝Đਥڳ࡜ྜᅱࣣѻຣ؟౟ݶເcಞྜ৑ఏݖปћၽອճغส......................................................................... 18ďసĐּԙСೇЦྦྷ௶Ԏਹ........................................................................................................................................ 20ďങĐ೴२ࣚഞݪΛჿІďQE2Đߜݖၽ֝ޑէޟ༣ԄӾᄓ໻............................................................................. 21๔cڑᅟ໭໶࠼ޖ඘ԅඹ჎פຢc໭໶࠼ޖ඘࿫ճغඹ჎ࠩదަ๯ඹԁ................................................................... 22ؘġOECDকຕᄗ೴ďOECD࠼ޖჼ඘ྦྷ௶҉ဟࣴ჆୙Đ.............................................................................................. 22 ೑䰙ᅣ㾖㒣⌢2011ᑈ2ᄷᑺㄪ⬹᡹ਞ 䞡㽕ໄᯢ˖ᴀ᡹ਞݙᆍҙҷ㸼԰㗙ϾҎ㾖⚍DŽᴀ݀ৌ੠԰㗙ᴀҎ࡯∖᡹ਞݙᆍޚ⹂ᅠᭈˈԚϡᇍ಴Փ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞ㗠ѻ⫳ⱘӏԩৢᵰᡓᢙ⊩ᕟ䋷ӏDŽᴀ᡹ਞⱘ⠜ᴗᔦ໾ᑇ⋟䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ੠԰㗙݅ৠᢹ᳝ˈབ䳔ᓩ⫼੠䕀䕑ˈ䳔ᕕᕫ⠜ᴗ᠔᳝㗙ⱘৠᛣDŽӏԩҎՓ⫼ᴀ᡹ਞˈ㾚ЎৠᛣҹϞໄᯢDŽDŽ- 3 -෍ζંৃ෍ζ1ġॆΑཐၐဒС२ԅ80%ᆰဗѻࣇOECDޥڳ......................................................................................................... 4෍ζ2ġ2ၥךॆΑཐڳઝՎ৙ྻࣿēॆΑཐၐဒС२ࣙമຏܡ....................................................................................... 5෍ζ3ġॆΑཐၐဒ҅΁ၽ௦௏ದဒ҅΁ᄯႽΑࠧน3%ᆰဗ............................................................................................ 5෍ζ4ġॆΑཐၐဒС२ၽದဒ೛ѻڳᆦᄎďOPECĐᄯႽΑࠧน5%ᆰဗ..................................................................... 6෍ζ5ġWTIၐဒຣٌޮݪᆜಽ............................................................................................................................................. 6෍ζ6୙࠭ġWTIၐဒຣٌޮݪᆜಽ.............................................